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Bitcoin Prysvoorspelling: Wat Elliott Wave Theory voorstel, is volgende vir BTC
Enige Bitcoin price prediction is just a guess without a basis to make the forecast. The voorraad-na-vloei-model dit was eens die mees aangehaalde rede vir verwagtinge van hoër pryse het misluk, wat tegniese ontleding, on-ketting seine en statistieke gelaat het as die beste kans om toekomstige prysteikens te vind.
Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis forecasting methodology discovered in the 1930s, which is based on identifying extremes in investor psychology combined with distinctive price behavior. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so susceptible to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, here is what Elliott Wave Theory suggests about what is to come for Bitcoin prys.
'n Kort geskiedenis van BTC-prysaksie
Die Bitcoin price index chart begins in late 2010, with the first-ever cryptocurrency trading at only pennies on the dollar. By the end of 2011, the price per BTC grew by more than 60,000%. Before the year came to a close, it has lost 94% of its value.
Vanaf die laagtepunt van ongeveer $2 het nog 'n bullish impuls nog 'n 60,000% ROI bygevoeg teen die hoogtepunt van 2013. Nog 'n steil regstellende fase het gevolg, wat die kripto-geldeenheid met 86% verlaag het.
What followed was arguably the most talked about bull run since the dot com bubble, when in 2017 Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 per coin. By now, we can see that extreme price swings and pivots in investors sentiment lead to boom and bust cycles across crypto. Bitcoin once again found a bottom at $3,000 in 2018, which will be the basis of the remainder of the analysis.
The first wave ever and the history of Bitcoin price | Source: BTCUSD op TradingView.com'n Inleiding tot Elliott Wave Theory
Eerste ontdek deur Ralph Nelson Elliott in die 1930's, Elliott-golfteorie is 'n basis om te verduidelik hoe markte oor tyd groei. Die motiefgolf in EWT is 'n voorbeeld van markte wat drie treë vorentoe en twee treë terug beweeg.
Hierdie stappe wissel heen en weer tussen groei- en regstellende fases. Motiefgolwe bestaan uit vyf golwe in totaal – met onewe genommerde golwe wat in die rigting van die primêre neiging beweeg, en ewe genommerde golwe wat daarteen beweeg.
Alhoewel regstellende fases wel 'n drastiese afname in waarde tot gevolg het, bly inkrementele groei altyd in die primêre tendensrigting. Golwe, beide impulsief en korrektief, verskyn albei in verskillende grade en tydskale.
For example, a five-wave impulse on the daily timeframe could only be a tiny portion of a multi-century Grand Supercycle. Figuring out where Bitcoin is along in its various wave cycles and degrees can help to predict future price action.
Bitcoin price prediction scenarios based on possible wave counts | Source: BTCUSD op TradingView.comHersiening van die huidige marksiklus, volgens EWT
Each wave in an impulse has unique characteristics which can help an analysis decipher where an asset is in an overall motive wave. Following the 2018 bear market bottom, crypto had a clean slate to move up from. In 2019, Bitcoin rallied to $13,800, showing the market there was still life in the speculative asset.
Byna die hele tydren het teruggetrek, wat 'n algemene kenmerk van 'n golf 2-regstelling is. Korreksies is geneig om te wissel tussen skerp en plat-styl korreksies. Skerp regstellings word deur zig-zags voorgestel. Golf 2 het soos 'n zig-zag gedra en daar is geen ontkenning dat die Maart 2020 Swart Donderdag ineenstorting was 'n skerp regstelling.
Wave 3 in Elliott Wave is typically the longest and strongest wave, marked by much wider participation than wave 1. The crowd begins piling at this point. Bitcoin gained national media attention as it reached new all-times during this wave. From there, things get more confusing.
Elliott Wave-praktisyns word verdeel tussen of BTCUSD sy golf 4- en golf 5-fases reeds voltooi het, of as golf 4 nog aan die gang is en golf 5 nog moet kom. Deur hierdie twee scenario's te gebruik, kan sommige teikens oorweeg word.
Things could get extremely bearish for Bitcoin if the cycle has ended | Source: BTCUSD op TradingView.comDie lomp en bullish scenario's en teikens
In die lomp scenario, a afgekapte golf 5 beëindig die Bitcoin bull run and sent the crypto market into its first true bear phase, with wave 5 of V finished and done, ending the primary cycle (pictured above).
Completed bull markets often retrace back into wave 3/4 territory when the motive wave is completed. Bearish price targets put the negative Bitcoin price prediction from anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000 in a complete collapse of the market. A larger catastrophe in the stock market and housing could ultimately do the trick by pulling whatever capital that’s left out of crypto.
The bullish scenario is much more positive, and better fits with what Elliott Wave Theory calls “the right look” and proper counting. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin is in the final stages of an uitgebreide plat regstelling, en sodra die sentiment- en prysuiterstes klaar is, sal die top-cryptocurrency vinnig weg wees om nog 'n bullish prys-uiterste en sentiment-skakelaar te stel, baie vinniger as waarop enigiemand voorbereid is.
BTC blyk te wees in die finale stadiums van 'n uitgebreide plat golf 4 regstelling | Bron: BTCUSD op TradingView.comUsing EWT To Make A Bitcoin Prysvoorspelling
Die magie agter Elliott Wave Theory en hoekom dit groei in finansiële markte beïnvloed, is te danke aan sy verhoudings met Fibonacci-getalle. Fibonacci getalle is gebaseer op die Fibonacci-reeks, wat verband hou met die goue verhouding. Die Fibonacci-reeks lees 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 ensovoorts.
In Elliott Wave Theory is daar 21 korrektiewe patrone wat wissel van eenvoudig tot kompleks. 'n Motiefgolf is 5 golwe op, terwyl korrektiewe golwe 3 golwe af is, wat 'n totaal van 8 skep wanneer dit opgetel word. 'n Vol gerealiseerde impulsgolf met alle subgolwe is 21 golwe op, terwyl korrektiewe fases tot 13 golwe af is. Elke Fibonacci-nommer uit die ry is in een of ander hoedanigheid ingesluit.
Regstellings stop ook by Fibonacci-herhalingsvlakke, en impulse bereik Fibonacci-uitbreidings as prysteikens. Golf 5 is gewoonlik gelyk aan golf 1 of golf 3 in terme van grootte. As golf 5 verleng word, en dit is dikwels in kripto, kan golf 5 se teiken iewers tussen 1.618 van golf 3, of 1.618 van die som van golf 1 en golf 3 val.
Bitcoin price reached the 3.618 extension from the bear market bottom, making it possible that the top cryptocurrency overshoots once again. On the lowest end, a 1.618 price target would put the peak of BTC for this cycle somewhere close to $96,000 per coin, while another 3.618 extension could take the top cryptocurrency all the way to $194,000 per BTC.
Dit maak die Bitcoin price prediction using EWT anywhere between $100K to $200K before the cycle is over. You can watch this Bitcoin price prediction unfold in real-time by bookmarking the idea on TradingView.
'N Moontlike Bitcoin price prediction based on Fibonacci extensions | Source: BTCUSD op TradingView.comDaar is net 'n paar dae oor om voordeel te trek uit @elliottwaveintl's “The 12 Days of Elliott”
Take a peek & sign-up here: https://t.co/IuPkJZ5IM7
Watch your inbox for a new resource each day. Everyone gets access to the free resources till Dec. 16.
Happy Holidays! pic.twitter.com/DCqrdtNfDp
— Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) Desember 8, 2022
Voorgestelde beeld van iStockPhoto, grafieke van TradingView.com
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