By Bitcoin Tydskrif - 3 maande gelede - Leestyd: 6 minute
Die Bitcoin Halvering: Waarom hierdie tyd anders kan wees
Die vierde Bitcoin halving is almost upon us, and this one has the potential for some very interesting surprises. This halving marks the reduction of the Bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 BTC every block to 3.125 BTC per block. These supply reductions occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, as part of Bitcoin’s gradual, disinflationary approach to its final capped supply in circulation.
Die eindige aanbod van 21 miljoen munte is 'n, indien nie die, foundational characteristic of Bitcoin. This predictability of supply and inflation rate has been at the heart of what has driven demand and belief in bitcoin as a superior form of money. The regular supply halving is the mechanism by which that finite supply is ultimately enacted.
The halvings over time are the driver behind one of the most fundamental shifts of Bitcoin incentives in the long term: the move from miners being funded by newly issued coins from the coinbase subsidy — the block reward — to being funded dominantly by the transaction fee revenue from users moving bitcoin aan die ketting.
Soos Satoshi in Afdeling 6 (Aansporings) van die witskrif gesê het:
“Die aansporing kan ook met transaksiefooie gefinansier word. As die uitsetwaarde van 'n transaksie minder is as die insetwaarde daarvan, is die verskil 'n transaksiefooi wat by die aansporingswaarde van die blok wat die transaksie bevat gevoeg word. Sodra 'n voorafbepaalde aantal munte sirkulasie betree het, kan die aansporing geheel en al na transaksiefooie oorgaan en heeltemal inflasievry wees."
Historically the halving has correlated with a massive appreciation in the price of bitcoin, offsetting the impact of the miners’ subsidy being cut in half. Miners’ bills are paid in fiat, meaning that if the price of bitcoin appreciates, resulting in a larger income in dollar terms for the lower amount of bitcoin earned per block, the negative impact on mining operation is cushioned.
In light of the last market cycle, with not even a 4x appreciation from the prior all time high, the degree to which price appreciation will cushion miners from the effects of the halving is an assumption that might not consistently hold true. This coming halving, the inflation rate of bitcoin will drop for the first time below 1%. If the next market cycle plays out similarly to the previous one, with much lower upwards movement than seen historically, this halving could have a materially negative impact on existing miners.
This makes the fee revenue miners can collect from transactions more important than ever, and it will continue to become more central to their sustainability from a business perspective as block height increases and successive halvings occur. Either fee revenue has to increase, or the price needs to appreciate at a minimum by 2x each halving in order to make up for the decrease in subsidy revenue. As bullish as most Bitcoiners can be, the notion that a doubling in price is guaranteed to happen every four years, in perpetuity, is a dubious assumption at best.
Wees lief vir hulle of haat hulle, BRC-20-tekens en inskripsies het die hele dinamiek van die mempool verskuif, deur fooie van iewers in die balpark van 0.1-0.2 BTC per blok voor hul bestaan te stoot na die ietwat wisselvallige gemiddelde van 1-2 BTC soos die afgelope tyd - gereeld stygende ver meer as dit.
Die Nuwe Faktor Hierdie keer
Ordinals present a very new incentive dynamic to the halving this go around that was not present at any prior halving in Bitcoin’s history. Rare sats. At the heart of Ordinals Theory is that satoshis from specific blocks can be tracked and “owned” based on its arbitrary interpretation of the transaction history of the blockchain, based on assuming specific amounts sent to specific outputs “send that sat” there. The other aspect of the theory is assigning rarity values to specific sats. Each block has a coinbase, thus producing an ordinal. But each block is different in importance to the scheme. Each normal block produces an “uncommon” sat, the first block of each difficulty adjustment produces a “rare” sat, and the first block of each halving cycle produces an “epic” sat.
This halving will be the first one since the widespread adoption of Ordinal Theory by a subset of Bitcoin users. There has never been the production of an “epic” sat while there was material market demand for it from a large and developed ecosystem. The market demand for that specific sat could wind up being valued at absurd multiples of what the coinbase reward itself is valued at in terms of just fungible satoshis.
The fact that a large market segment in the Bitcoin space would value that single coinbase drastically higher than any other creates an incentive for miners to fight over it by reorganizing the blockchain immediately after the halving. The only time such a thing has happened in history was during the very first halving, when the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Some miners continued trying to mine blocks rewarding 50 BTC in the coinbase after the supply cut, and gave up shortly after when the rest of the network ignored their efforts. This time around, the incentive to reorg isn’t based around ignoring the consensus rules and hoping people come along to your side, it's fighting over who is allowed to mine a completely valid block because of the value collectors will ascribe to that single coinbase.
Daar is geen waarborge dat so 'n herorganisasie werklik sal plaasvind nie, maar daar is 'n baie groot finansiële aansporing vir mynwerkers om dit te doen. As dit wel plaasvind, hang die lengte waarvoor dit sal aanhou uiteindelik af van hoeveel daardie "epiese" sit op die mark werd kan wees om te betaal vir die verlore inkomste uit baklei oor 'n enkele blok eerder as om die ketting te vorder.
Each halving in Bitcoin’s history has been a pivotal event people watch, but this go around it has the potential to be much more interesting than past halvings.
Hoe 'n Epiese Sat-geveg kon uitspeel
Daar is 'n paar maniere waarop dit na my mening kan uitspeel. Die eerste en mees voor die hand liggende manier is dat niks gebeur nie. Om watter rede ook al, oordeel mynwerkers nie dat die potensiële markwaarde van die eerste "epiese" sit wat ontgin is sedert Ordinals-aanneming afgeneem het, die geleentheidskoste werd is om energie te mors om die blokketting te herorganiseer en afstand te doen van die geld wat hulle kan maak deur bloot die volgende blok te ontgin . As mynwerkers nie dink dat die ekstra premie wat die ordinaal kan haal, die koste werd is om op te hou om na die volgende blok te gaan nie, sal hulle dit eenvoudig nie doen nie.
Die volgende moontlikheid is 'n gevolg van genuanseerde skale van ekonomie. Stel jou voor dat 'n groter skaal mynboubedrywighede dit kan bekostig om meer "verlore blokke" te waag om in 'n herorganisering geveg oor die "epiese" sat. Daardie groter mynwerker met meer kapitaal om op die tafel te sit, kan bekostig om 'n groter risiko te neem. In hierdie scenario kan ons 'n paar vreemde herorganiseringspogings sien deur groter mynwerkers met kleiner bedrywighede wat nie eens probeer nie, en in wese minimale ontwrigting. Dit sal uitspeel as mynwerkers dink daar is 'n premie wat hulle vir die ordinaal kan verkry, maar nie 'n massiewe premie wat die netwerk werd is nie.
Die laaste scenario sou wees as 'n mark bie vir die "epiese" sit voor die tyd ontwikkel, en mynwerkers kan 'n duidelike prentjie hê dat die rangorde massief bo die markwaarde van die fungible sat self gewaardeer word. In hierdie geval kan mynwerkers vir 'n lang tydperk oor daardie blok baklei. Die logika agter om nie die blokketting te herorganiseer nie, is dat jy geld verloor, jy gee nie net afstand van die beloning om net die volgende blok te ontgin nie, maar jy gaan ook voort om die koste aan te gaan om jou mynbedrywighede te bedryf. In 'n situasie waar die mark in die openbaar aandui hoeveel die "epiese" sit werd is, het mynwerkers 'n baie duidelike idee van hoe lank hulle kan nalaat om na die volgende blok te beweeg en steeds met 'n netto wins te eindig deur die na-halvering te behaal muntbasisbeloning met die rangorde. In hierdie scenario kan die netwerk aansienlike ontwrigting sien totdat mynwerkers die punt begin nader om 'n gewaarborgde verlies aan te gaan, selfs al sou hulle die ontginning van hierdie blok suksesvol beëindig sonder dat dit herorganiseer word.
Ongeag hoe dinge eintlik uitspeel, dit gaan 'n faktor wees om elke halvering vorentoe te oorweeg, tensy die vraag en mark vir ordinale afsterf.
Oorspronklike bron: Bitcoin Tydskrif