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Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Elliott Wave Theory Suggests Is Next For BTC
bilo koji Bitcoin price prediction is just a guess without a basis to make the forecast. The model zaliha do protoka koji je nekada bio najčešće citirani razlog za očekivanja viših cijena je propao, ostavljajući tehničku analizu, signale na lancu i statistiku kao najbolju šansu za pronalaženje budućih ciljeva cijena.
Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis forecasting methodology discovered in the 1930s, which is based on identifying extremes in investor psychology combined with distinctive price behavior. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so susceptible to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, here is what Elliott Wave Theory suggests about what is to come for Bitcoin cijenu.
Kratka istorija akcije cena BTC
The Bitcoin price index chart begins in late 2010, with the first-ever cryptocurrency trading at only pennies on the dollar. By the end of 2011, the price per BTC grew by more than 60,000%. Before the year came to a close, it has lost 94% of its value.
Sa najniže vrednosti od približno 2 dolara, još jedan bikovski impuls je dodao još 60,000% ROI do vrhunca 2013. Uslijedila je još jedna strma korektivna faza, smanjujući kriptovalutu za 86%.
What followed was arguably the most talked about bull run since the dot com bubble, when in 2017 Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 per coin. By now, we can see that extreme price swings and pivots in investors sentiment lead to boom and bust cycles across crypto. Bitcoin once again found a bottom at $3,000 in 2018, which will be the basis of the remainder of the analysis.
The first wave ever and the history of Bitcoin price | Source: BTCUSD na TradingView.comUvod u Elliottovu teoriju valova
Prvi put otkrio Ralph Nelson Elliott 1930-ih, Elliotska teorija o talasima je osnova za objašnjenje kako tržišta rastu tokom vremena. Motivalni val u EWT-u je primjer kretanja tržišta tri koraka naprijed i dva koraka unazad.
Ovi koraci se izmjenjuju naprijed-nazad između faze rasta i korekcije. Pokretni talasi se sastoje od ukupno pet talasa – sa neparnim talasima koji se kreću u pravcu primarnog trenda, i parnim talasima koji se kreću protiv njega.
Iako korektivne faze dovode do drastičnog pada vrijednosti, inkrementalni rast uvijek ostaje u smjeru primarnog trenda. Talasi, i impulsivni i korektivni, pojavljuju se u različitim stepenima i vremenskim razmacima.
For example, a five-wave impulse on the daily timeframe could only be a tiny portion of a multi-century Grand Supercycle. Figuring out where Bitcoin is along in its various wave cycles and degrees can help to predict future price action.
Bitcoin price prediction scenarios based on possible wave counts | Source: BTCUSD na TradingView.comPregled trenutnog tržišnog ciklusa, prema EWT
Each wave in an impulse has unique characteristics which can help an analysis decipher where an asset is in an overall motive wave. Following the 2018 bear market bottom, crypto had a clean slate to move up from. In 2019, Bitcoin rallied to $13,800, showing the market there was still life in the speculative asset.
Skoro cijeli reli se vratio, što je uobičajena karakteristika korekcije talasa 2. Korekcije imaju tendenciju da se izmjenjuju između oštrih i ravnih korekcija. Oštre korekcije su predstavljene cik-cak. Talas 2 ponašao se kao cik-cak i ne može se poreći da je mart 2020. Crni četvrtak kolaps je bio oštra korekcija.
Wave 3 in Elliott Wave is typically the longest and strongest wave, marked by much wider participation than wave 1. The crowd begins piling at this point. Bitcoin gained national media attention as it reached new all-times during this wave. From there, things get more confusing.
Praktičari Elliott Wavea podijeljeni su između toga da li je BTCUSD već završio fazu talasa 4 i talasa 5, ili ako je talas 4 još uvek u toku, a talas 5 tek dolazi. Koristeći ova dva scenarija, mogu se razmotriti neki ciljevi.
Things could get extremely bearish for Bitcoin if the cycle has ended | Source: BTCUSD na TradingView.comMedvjeđi i bikovski scenariji i ciljevi
U medvjeđem scenariju, a skraćeni talas 5 ended the Bitcoin bull run and sent the crypto market into its first true bear phase, with wave 5 of V finished and done, ending the primary cycle (pictured above).
Completed bull markets often retrace back into wave 3/4 territory when the motive wave is completed. Bearish price targets put the negative Bitcoin price prediction from anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000 in a complete collapse of the market. A larger catastrophe in the stock market and housing could ultimately do the trick by pulling whatever capital that’s left out of crypto.
The bullish scenario is much more positive, and better fits with what Elliott Wave Theory calls “the right look” and proper counting. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin is in the final stages of an proširena ravna korekcija, a kada se završi sentiment i cjenovni ekstremi, vrhunska kriptovaluta će brzo postaviti još jedan bikovski cjenovni ekstrem i promjenu sentimenta, mnogo brže nego što je bilo ko spreman.
Čini se da je BTC u završnoj fazi proširene korekcije ravnog talasa 4 | Izvor: BTCUSD na TradingView.comUsing EWT To Make A Bitcoin Predviđanje cijena
Magija koja stoji iza Elliott Wave Theory i zašto ona utiče na rast na finansijskim tržištima je posledica njenog odnosa sa Fibonačijevim brojevima. Fibonacci brojevi su zasnovani na Fibonačijevom nizu, koji je povezan sa zlatnim rezom. Fibonačijev niz glasi 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 i tako dalje.
U Elliott Wave Theory, postoji 21 korektivni obrazac u rasponu od jednostavnih do složenih. Motivni talas je 5 talasa gore, dok su korektivni talasi 3 talasa dole, stvarajući ukupno 8 kada se zbroje. Puno realizovani impulsni talas sa svim podtalasima je 21 talas gore, dok su korektivne faze do 13 talasa dole. Svaki Fibonačijev broj iz niza je uključen u neki kapacitet.
Korekcije se takođe zaustavljaju na nivoima Fibonačijevog retracementa, a impulsi dostižu Fibonačijeve ekstenzije kao ciljne cene. Talas 5 je obično jednak talasu 1 ili talasu 3 u smislu veličine. Ako se talas 5 produži, a često je u kripto, cilj talasa 5 mogao bi pasti negde između 1.618 talasa 3 ili 1.618 zbira talasa 1 i talasa 3.
Bitcoin price reached the 3.618 extension from the bear market bottom, making it possible that the top cryptocurrency overshoots once again. On the lowest end, a 1.618 price target would put the peak of BTC for this cycle somewhere close to $96,000 per coin, while another 3.618 extension could take the top cryptocurrency all the way to $194,000 per BTC.
To čini Bitcoin price prediction using EWT anywhere between $100K to $200K before the cycle is over. You can watch this Bitcoin price prediction unfold in real-time by bookmarking the idea on TradingView.
Moguće Bitcoin price prediction based on Fibonacci extensions | Source: BTCUSD na TradingView.comOstalo je samo nekoliko dana da iskoristite @elliottwaveintl's “The 12 Days of Elliott”
Take a peek & sign-up here: https://t.co/IuPkJZ5IM7
Watch your inbox for a new resource each day. Everyone gets access to the free resources till Dec. 16.
Sretni praznici! pic.twitter.com/DCqrdtNfDp
— Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) Decembar 8, 2022
Istaknuta slika sa iStockPhoto, grafikoni sa TradingView.com
Izvorni izvor: NewsBTC