By Bitcoin Magazin - prije 5 mjeseca - Vrijeme čitanja: 3 minute
Satoshijeva greška
Satoshi Nakamoto is God and Bitcoin’s design is perfect. Or is it? There's one feature of the protocol that keeps bugging me: the Halvening (halving, whatever). I'm sure Naka thought this over. His first Bitcoin must have had an incremental reduction of the supply per block. But the final design, the one we know, cuts the block reward in half only after every 210,000 blocks (every four years). Obviously, this decision had a tremendous impact on price action, volatility, and adoption. Unfortunately, it’s not the best supply scheme. Let's explore.
Prepolovljenje
Bitcoin, as we know it, has a supply schedule adhering to the following hard coded rule:
Matematička formula smanjenja ponude.Za ne-mathies, ovo je zbir (Σ) svih novih kovanica isporučenih po bloku od lansiranja do 32 prepolovljenja u budućnosti. Tokom prvih 210,000 blokova (i=0) nagrada za blok je bila 50 (50/(20) = 50/1 = 50). Slijedi prvo prepolovljenje (i=1), a nagrada za blok za sljedećih 210,000 blokova se prepolovi (50/21 = 50/2 = 25). Ovo se nastavlja sve dok se 32. ciklus prepolovljivanja ne završi oko 2140. godine i dok ukupna ponuda ne dosegne praktički 21 milion kovanica.
This choice of supply schedule has consequences. Because the supply is suddenly reduced by 50% overnight, it shocks the market. As demand remains unchanged, the price adjusts upward, as Bitcoin is now twice as scarce. The rapid price surge leads to a hype cycle, drawing media attention, attracting new adopters.
The halvening is Bitcoin's in-built media campaign. But it has a cost. Because the price is so volatile, the price surges into a blow-off top, and the rollercoaster dives back into the abyss. This makes Bitcoin not ideal for most where drawdowns of 75-85% are normal.
Bitcoin's main feature is its skladište vrijednosti (SoV) function, making it really different from other innovations. If you FOMOed in at the top, the store of value function will only be realized four years later. The only way a new hodler will hold on to their Bitcoin is when they thoroughly understand the protocol, trust the code, and know the price will recover and take off after the next halving. This is a level of abstraction and conviction most prospective adopters don't have. Negative short term price movements heavily detract from its SoV proposition. It takes months to properly understand Bitcoin (and fiat).
Međutim, kod drugih tehnologija, prednosti su sasvim jasne nakon prve upotrebe. TV, telefon, e-pošta, mikrovalna pećnica sjajni su primjeri inovacija u kojima se vrijednost percipira već u prvim minutama.
To stress the impact of perception, look for instance at the adoption of the color TV versus the computer. Television, though earlier, is steeper. Because its value was immediately experienced. The computer was a far more obscure device. So, there are exceptions in the chart countering the trend. It's important to ask why. Bitcoin can be an outlier too! Value perception plays a large role in the steepness of each individual curve. It’s one of the main drivers of technology diffusion according to Everett Rogers who first studied these curves. This renders adoption narratives like “It’s like the Internet in 1994,” or “innovation adoption curves are getting steeper over time,” less convincing.
Otuda se postavlja pitanje: da li je trenutni četvorogodišnji raspored snabdevanja idealan?
Inkrementalno smanjenje ponude
Alternativa je jednostavna: ISR. Nema prepolovljenja, ali će svaki blok imati neznatno smanjenje nagrade za blok. Dakle, blok 0 će imati 50 BTC. Blok 1 će imati 49.9999, itd. Linearna funkcija nije idealna, ali postoje i druge opcije.
The ISR schedule won't prevent volatility, but it would surely decrease it, as there are no more pent up shocks to the market. Such a change will turn Bitcoin into a more stable asset, gradually increasing its price over time.
Would the media hype and attention be reduced, then? Possibly. But how many more people would have stayed for the ride? Where’s the optimum point between these two schedules? It’s imaginable that ISR could have improved adoption. The halving cycle might largely obfuscate Bitcoin’s perceived value.
In the future, when we can test Bitcoin out on other planets, or spin up another simulation, we’ll run this experiment. I expect the halving is not the optimal design. Satoshi has made a mistake...in retrospect.
Ovo je gost gost Bitcoin Grafiti. Izražena mišljenja su u potpunosti njihova i ne odražavaju nužno mišljenja BTC Inc ili Bitcoin Časopis.
Izvorni izvor: Bitcoin Časopis