Per NewsBTC - fa 3 mesos - Temps de lectura: 3 minuts
Raons reals per Bitcoin S'ha revelat la caiguda de preus, no GBTC: Arthur Hayes
In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, articulates a contrarian perspective on the recent downturn in Bitcoin’s price, refuting the mainstream narrative that attributes the decline to outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Instead, Hayes punts to macroeconomic maneuvers and monetary policy shifts as the real drivers behind Bitcoinla volatilitat.
Política monetària i reaccions del mercat
Hayes kickstarts his analysis by shedding light on the US Treasury’s recent strategic shift in borrowing, a decision announced by Janet Yellen on November 1. This pivot towards lletres del tresor (T-bills) has triggered a substantial liquidity injection, compelling money market funds to reallocate their investments from the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) to these T-bills, offering higher yields.
Hayes articula la importància d'aquest moviment, afirmant: "Yellen va actuar canviant l'endeutament del seu departament a bons del Tesoro, afegint així centenars de milers de milions de dòlars de liquiditat fins ara". No obstant això, contrasta aquesta maniobra financera tangible amb la mera retòrica de la Reserva Federal sobre les futures retallades de tipus i la reducció de l'enduriment quantitatiu (QT), assenyalant que aquestes discussions no s'han traduït en estímul monetari real.
While the traditional financial markets, particularly the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, responded positively to these developments, Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s recent price trajectory serves as a more accurate barometer of the underlying economic currents. He remarks, “The real smoke alarm for the direction of dollar liquidity, Bitcoin, is throwing a cautionary sign.”
He notes the cryptocurrency’s decline from its peak and correlates it with the fluctuations in the yield of the 2-year US Treasury, suggesting a deeper economic interplay at work. “Coinciding with Bitcoin’s local high, the 2-year US Treasury yield hit a local low of 4.14% in mid-January and is now marching upwards,” Hayes remarked.
Dissecting True Reasons Behind The Bitcoin Immersió
Addressing the narrative surrounding GBTC, Hayes emphatically dismisses the notion that outflows from GBTC are the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movements. He clarifies, “The argument for Bitcoin’s recent dump is the sortides from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). That argument is bogus because when you net the outflows from GBTC against the inflows into the newly listed lloc Bitcoin ETF, the result is, as of January 22nd, a net inflow of $820 million.”
This realization shifts the focus to economic mechanisms at play. The crux of Hayes’s argument lies in the anticipation surrounding the Programa de finançament a termini bancari (BTFP)‘s expiration and the Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to adjust interest rates to a range that would alleviate the financial strain on smaller, non-Too-Big-to-Fail (TBTF) banks.
Hayes diu: "Fins que les taxes es redueixin als nivells esmentats anteriorment, no hi ha manera que aquests bancs puguin sobreviure sense el suport del govern proporcionat a través del BTFP". Preveu una minicrisi financera imminent en cas de cessament del BTFP, que creu que obligarà la Reserva Federal a passar de la retòrica a l'acció tangible, és a dir, retallades de tipus, una reducció del QT i, potencialment, una represa de la relaxació quantitativa. QE).
"Jo crec Bitcoin will dip before the BTFP renewal decision on March 12th. I didn’t expect it to happen so soon, but I think Bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000. As the SPX and NDX dump due to a mini financial crisis in March, Bitcoin will rise as it will front-run the eventual conversion of rate cuts and money printing talk on behalf of the Fed into the action of pressing that Brrrr button,” Hayes writes.
El comerç estratègic es mou en un mercat turbulent
En una visió reveladora de les seves estratègies comercials tàctiques, Hayes comparteix el seu enfocament per navegar pel tumultuós panorama del mercat. Revela les seves posicions, inclosa la compra de puts i l'ajust estratègic de les seves participacions de BTC. Ell conclou:
A 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 is $33,600. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin forms support between $30,0000 to $35,000. That is why I purchased 29 March 2024 $35,000 strike puts. […] Bitcoin and crypto in general are the last freely traded markets globally. As such, they will anticipate changes in dollar liquidity before the manipulated TradFi fiat stock and bond markets. Bitcoin is telling us to look for Yellen and not Talkin’.
En el moment de la premsa, BTC cotitzava a 39,963 dòlars.
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