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Why An Ongoing Bullish Bitcoin Η "Επανάληψη δοκιμής" μπορεί να οδηγήσει σε νέα υψηλά
Bitcoin price is still well below its former record, but the top cryptocurrency by market cap at the time of this writing is making another attempt to reclaim lost support near all-time highs set earlier in the year.
The “retest” thus far is holding above a key level, and when compared to past peaks in the crypto market, this time almost certainly appears to be different. If the repeating pattern yields different results yet remains to be seen, but a unique outcome this time around would suggest a rally to new highs.
Οι τέσσερις πιο ακριβές λέξεις: «Αυτή τη φορά είναι διαφορετικά»According to Sir John Templeton, the most dangerous mindset in investing is assuming that “this time it’s different.” Markets are cyclical and price action often exhibits fractal-like patterns. Even Bitcoin itself appears to repeat in cycles every four years based on the built-in issuance mechanism called the halving.
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Despite this predictability, how the cycle unfolds can present itself in unique ways. For example, the 2014-2015 bear market was a deep, rounding structure, leading to a dramatic rise and top in 2017. A failed retest led to additional lower highs and a descending triangle pattern that ultimately broke down.
A retest of former support turned resistance is thus far holding | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.comΣε 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from the most recent bear market bottom, starting a new cycle in cryptocurrencies. After topping out below the asset’s former all-time high the same year, the remaining resistance above led to another failed retest and sustained bearish phase.
Bitcoin has topped once again, but this time the subsequent retest appears to be holding which could lead to new highs ahead.
Lack Of Resistance Could Lead Bitcoin Back To Price DiscoveryΗ έλλειψη αντίστασης κατά τη διάρκεια αυτής της φάσης του κύκλου θα μπορούσε να οδηγήσει σε διαφορετικό αποτέλεσμα από τις δύο προηγούμενες κορυφές, παρά τις συμβουλές του Sir Templeton. Οι προηγούμενες επαναληπτικές δοκιμές απέτυχαν επίσης κάτω από τη μέση γραμμή στο Bollinger Bands, που είναι ένας απλός κινητός μέσος όρος 20 εβδομάδων στο παρακάτω εβδομαδιαίο γράφημα.
BTC makes it above the middle-BB on this retest, not on others | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.comThe current retest has made it above the middle-Bollinger Band, which in an of itself can be used effectively as a signal to buy or go long.
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Note that during the last bull market, once Bitcoin price was able to hold and stay above the middle-SMA, the uptrend rarely took pause from that point on. It is also when the leading cryptocurrency by market cap blasted off into the final stages of the last bull market.
Λοιπόν, αυτή τη φορά είναι πραγματικά διαφορετική; Χωρίς αντίσταση παραπάνω, η ανάκτηση αυτού του επιπέδου με μια επιτυχημένη επανάληψη δεν θα μπορούσε να είναι πιο ανοδική για Bitcoin.
After a failure to move higher, often markets retest a range. If successful, prices might pass through the previous range. If unsuccessful, price finds a range below instead. With less resistance than past tops, the most recent #Bitcoin retest might be bullish. But BTC must hold. pic.twitter.com/0uznyPk5kC
— Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) 19 Αυγούστου 2021
Ακολουθήστε το @TonySpilotroBTC στο Twitter ή μέσω του Telegram TonyTradesBTC. Το περιεχόμενο είναι εκπαιδευτικό και δεν πρέπει να θεωρείται επενδυτική συμβουλή.
Προτεινόμενη εικόνα από το iStockPhoto, Διαγράμματα από το TradingView.comΠρωτότυπη πηγή: NewsBTC