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Bitcoin Réamh-mheastachán Praghsanna: An Rud a Mholann Teoiric Tonn Elliott atá Ar Aghaidh Do BTC
Aon Bitcoin price prediction is just a guess without a basis to make the forecast. The samhail stoc-le-sreabhadh ba é sin an chúis ba mhó a luadh tráth gur theip ar ionchais praghsanna níos airde, rud a d’fhág gur anailís theicniúil, comharthaí ar slabhra agus staitisticí an seans is fearr chun spriocanna praghais don todhchaí a aimsiú.
Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis forecasting methodology discovered in the 1930s, which is based on identifying extremes in investor psychology combined with distinctive price behavior. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so susceptible to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, here is what Elliott Wave Theory suggests about what is to come for Bitcoin praghas.
Stair Achomair ar Ghníomh Praghas BTC
An Bitcoin price index chart begins in late 2010, with the first-ever cryptocurrency trading at only pennies on the dollar. By the end of 2011, the price per BTC grew by more than 60,000%. Before the year came to a close, it has lost 94% of its value.
Ón leibhéal is ísle de thart ar $2, chuir impulse bullish eile 60,000% eile fós leis an ROI faoi bhuaic 2013. Lean céim cheartúcháin géar eile ina dhiaidh sin, laghdaigh an cryptocurrency laghdú 86%.
What followed was arguably the most talked about bull run since the dot com bubble, when in 2017 Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 per coin. By now, we can see that extreme price swings and pivots in investors sentiment lead to boom and bust cycles across crypto. Bitcoin once again found a bottom at $3,000 in 2018, which will be the basis of the remainder of the analysis.
The first wave ever and the history of Bitcoin price | Source: BTCUSD ar TradingView.comRéamheolas ar Theoiric Tonn Elliott
D’aimsigh Ralph Nelson Elliott den chéad uair sna 1930í, Teoiric Tonn Elliott is bonn é le míniú a thabhairt ar conas a fhásann margaí le himeacht ama. Is sampla é an tonn ghluaiste in EWT de mhargaí ag bogadh trí chéim ar aghaidh, agus dhá chéim ar ais.
Malartaítear na céimeanna seo anonn is anall idir na céimeanna fáis agus ceartaitheacha. Tá cúig thonnta san iomlán comhdhéanta de thonnta gluaiste – le tonnta corr-uimhrithe ag gluaiseacht i dtreo na buntreochta, agus tonnta uimhrithe fiú ag gluaiseacht ina coinne.
Cé go dtagann laghdú suntasach ar luach mar thoradh ar chéimeanna ceartaitheacha, fanann an fás incriminteach i dtreo an bhuntreochta i gcónaí. Tagann tonnta, idir ríogach agus cheartaitheach araon, i gcéimeanna agus i scálaí ama éagsúla.
For example, a five-wave impulse on the daily timeframe could only be a tiny portion of a multi-century Grand Supercycle. Figuring out where Bitcoin is along in its various wave cycles and degrees can help to predict future price action.
Bitcoin price prediction scenarios based on possible wave counts | Source: BTCUSD ar TradingView.comAthbhreithniú ar Thimthriall Reatha an Mhargaidh, De réir EWT
Each wave in an impulse has unique characteristics which can help an analysis decipher where an asset is in an overall motive wave. Following the 2018 bear market bottom, crypto had a clean slate to move up from. In 2019, Bitcoin rallied to $13,800, showing the market there was still life in the speculative asset.
Tháinig beagnach an rally ar fad siar, ar saintréith choitianta é ceartú tonn 2. Is gnách go n-athraítear ceartúcháin idir ceartúcháin géara agus ceartúcháin ar an stíl chomhréidh. Léirítear ceartúcháin géara le zig-zags. D’iompair Tonn 2 cosúil le zigzag agus níl aon séanadh go raibh an Márta 2020 Déardaoin Dubh ceartúchán géar a bhí sa titim.
Wave 3 in Elliott Wave is typically the longest and strongest wave, marked by much wider participation than wave 1. The crowd begins piling at this point. Bitcoin gained national media attention as it reached new all-times during this wave. From there, things get more confusing.
Roinntear cleachtóirí Elliott Wave i measc má chríochnaigh BTCUSD a chéimeanna tonn 4 agus tonn 5 cheana féin, nó má tá tonn 4 fós ar siúl agus tá tonn 5 fós le teacht. Ag baint úsáide as an dá chás seo, is féidir roinnt spriocanna a mheas.
Things could get extremely bearish for Bitcoin if the cycle has ended | Source: BTCUSD ar TradingView.comNa Cásanna agus na Spriocanna Bearish Agus Bullish
Sa chás bearish, a tonn teasctha 5 ended the Bitcoin bull run and sent the crypto market into its first true bear phase, with wave 5 of V finished and done, ending the primary cycle (pictured above).
Completed bull markets often retrace back into wave 3/4 territory when the motive wave is completed. Bearish price targets put the negative Bitcoin price prediction from anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000 in a complete collapse of the market. A larger catastrophe in the stock market and housing could ultimately do the trick by pulling whatever capital that’s left out of crypto.
The bullish scenario is much more positive, and better fits with what Elliott Wave Theory calls “the right look” and proper counting. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin is in the final stages of an ceartú cothrom leathnaithe, agus a luaithe a bheidh na mothúcháin agus na foircinní praghais críochnaithe, beidh an príomh-cryptocurrency réidh go tapa chun foircneach praghais bullish eile agus athrú meon a shocrú, i bhfad níos tapúla ná mar a ullmhaítear éinne.
Is cosúil go bhfuil BTC sna céimeanna deiridh de cheartú tonn leathnaithe 4 | Foinse: BTCUSD ar TradingView.comUsing EWT To Make A Bitcoin Tuar Praghsanna
Is é an draíocht atá taobh thiar de Theoiric Tonn Elliott agus an fáth a mbíonn tionchar aige ar fhás ar mhargaí airgeadais mar gheall ar a chaidreamh le huimhreacha Fibonacci. Fibonacci tá na huimhreacha bunaithe ar an seicheamh Fibonacci, a bhaineann leis an gcóimheas órga. Léann seicheamh Fibonacci 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 agus mar sin de.
I dTeoiric Tonn Elliott, tá 21 patrún ceartaitheacha ag réimsiú ó shimplí go casta. Is éard atá i dtonn ghluaiste ná 5 thonn in airde, agus tá tonnta ceartaitheacha 3 thonn síos, rud a chruthaíonn 8 dtonn san iomlán nuair a chuirtear suas iad. Tá tonn impulse réadaithe iomlán le gach fo-tonnta 21 tonn in airde, agus tá céimeanna ceartaitheacha suas le 13 thonn síos. Tá gach uimhir Fibonacci ón seicheamh san áireamh i gcáil éigin.
Stopann ceartúcháin freisin ag leibhéil Fibonacci, agus sroicheann impulses síntí Fibonacci mar spriocanna praghais. De ghnáth bíonn tonn 5 cothrom le tonn 1 nó tonn 3 i dtéarmaí méide. Má leathnaítear tonn 5, agus is minic a bhíonn sé in crypto, d'fhéadfadh sprioc tonn 5 titim áit éigin idir 1.618 de thonn 3, nó 1.618 de shuim tonn 1 agus tonn 3.
Bitcoin price reached the 3.618 extension from the bear market bottom, making it possible that the top cryptocurrency overshoots once again. On the lowest end, a 1.618 price target would put the peak of BTC for this cycle somewhere close to $96,000 per coin, while another 3.618 extension could take the top cryptocurrency all the way to $194,000 per BTC.
Déanann sé seo an Bitcoin price prediction using EWT anywhere between $100K to $200K before the cycle is over. You can watch this Bitcoin price prediction unfold in real-time by bookmarking the idea on TrádálaView.
A féideartha Bitcoin price prediction based on Fibonacci extensions | Source: BTCUSD ar TradingView.comNíl ach cúpla lá fágtha chun leas a bhaint as @elliottwaveintl's “The 12 Days of Elliott”
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