An Seanchaighdeán: Cén Fáth a Bhfuil Óir ag Bualadh Bitcoin i 2022

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Dé Céadaoin, 27 Aibreán, 2022 11:59 PM

An Seanchaighdeán: Cén Fáth a Bhfuil Óir ag Bualadh Bitcoin i 2022

Bitcoin continues to underperform as a general “risk-off” sentiment has investors driving toward gold as a safe haven asset.

Tá imní fós ar an gcogadh idir an Rúis agus an Úcráin. Tá boilsciú na SA ag streachailt le ceithre scór bliain ar airde agus bíonn faitíos ar ardú ráta chothaithe i réim. Síneann an neamhchinnteacht chuig geilleagar an domhain mar a bhfuiltear ag súil le cúlú seachas téarnamh. Dúirt stiúrthóir bainistíochta an IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, gur “géarchéim sa bhreis ar ghéarchéim” é.

“The war is a supply shock that reduces economic output and raises prices. Indeed, we forecast inflation will accelerate to 5.5 percent in advanced economies and to 9.3 percent in emerging European economies excluding Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. ” The IMF stated last week.

Reuters recently quoted Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann, who talked in a note about the factors that have “lent buoyancy to gold in recent days,” mentioning the “strong buying interest on the part of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) investors” and news about the Ukraine war.

“Is cosúil go bhfuil an Rúis ag ullmhú chun mórionsaithe a sheoladh in oirthear na tíre – rud a ghin éileamh mór ar ór mar thearmann sábháilte,” a dúirt an anailísí.

Déanann sé seo achoimre ar an dearcadh “riosca as” faoi láthair. De réir mar a bheifí ag súil leis, fulaingíonn cothromais mar go bhfuil infheisteoirí ag díol sócmhainní rioscúla agus ag ceannach sócmhainní a bhfuil baint dhiúltach acu leis an margadh traidisiúnta. Mar sin, tá an spás criptithe ag streachailt taobh le margadh na stoc agus tá an óir ag ardú.

Data from Arcane Research’s latest weekly report notes that it has been a gloomy year for the “digital gold.” In the first three weeks of 2022, Bitcoin sank 25% and it is still down by 18% in the year despite its slight recovery.

Similarly, Nasdaq records a 19% decline in the year, having underperformed against bitcoin “by a small margin,” notes the report, adding that “This is surprising given that bitcoin has tended to follow Nasdaq, albeit with higher volatility.”

Mar gheall ar an eagla ghinearálta faoi neamhchinnteacht gheopholaitiúil agus mhaicreacnamaíoch, tá an t-ór chun suntais arís eile maidir le sócmhainní tearmainn. D’fheidhmigh an tsócmhainn níos fearr ná na hinnéacsanna eile go léir a fheictear thíos le gnóthachan 4%.

Idir an dá linn, tá an margadh airgeadra ag feidhmiú leis na "patrúin riosca-uaire céanna." Tá a cheannas “riosca as” á chruthú ag an Dollar mar go bhfuil ardú 7% ar Innéacs Dollar na SA (DXY). Tá an yuan Síneach tar éis dul i bhfeidhm ar imní faoi bheartas “nialas-covid” na tíre - a chruthaíonn fadhbanna don slabhra soláthair domhanda - agus an mhoilliú ar gheilleagar na Síne. I gcodarsnacht leis sin, tá infheisteoirí ag rith go dtí an Dollar SAM ar mhaithe le sábháilteacht.

Bitcoin supporters usually refer to the coin as “digital gold” alleging it is a safe haven asset, and this narrative had held well while BTC had been “uncorrelated with most other major asset classes,” but the tide is shifting with the 2022 scenario as investors are rather placing the coin “into the risk-on basket”.

A previous Arcane Research report indicated that bitcoin’s 30 -day correlation with the Nasdaq is revisiting July 2020 highs while its correlation with gold has reached all-time lows.

A pseudonym traded noted that “As Bitcoin adoption goes on and more institutional investors enter the market, the correlation of BTC and stocks becomes more and more tight. That is a paradigm that the crypto world struggled to come to terms with in the past but is now more real than ever. A healthy stock market is good for Bitcoin. "

Idir an dá linn, is cosúil go bhfuil dearcadh ginearálta na trádálaithe bearish, agus go leor ag rá go bhféadfadh an bonn cuairt a thabhairt ar an leibhéal $ 30k go luath.

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