By Bitcoin Iris - 3 mhí ó shin - Am Léitheoireachta: 9 nóiméad
Eis-sreafaí GBTC: Iomlán Réamhaisnéise Bitcoin Brú Díolacháin & Tionchar Margaidh
Seo a leanas anailís heuristic ar eis-sreabhadh GBTC agus níl sé beartaithe go mbeadh sé go docht matamaiticiúil, ach ina ionad sin chun fónamh mar uirlis chun cabhrú le daoine tuiscint a fháil ar staid reatha díolacháin GBTC ó ardleibhéal, agus chun scála na n-eis-sreafaí amach anseo a mheas. tarlú.
Uimhir Téigh Síos
January 25, 2024 – Since Wall Street came to Bitcoin faoi choimirce Spota ETF approval, the market has been met with relentless selling from the largest pool of bitcoin in the world: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which held more than 630,000 bitcoin at its peak. After conversion from a closed-end fund to a Spot ETF, GBTC’s treasury (3% of all 21 million bitcoin) has bled more than $4 billion during the first 9 days of ETF trading, while other ETF participants have seen inflows of approximately $5.2 billion over that same period. The result – $824 million in net inflows – is somewhat surprising given the sharply negative price action since the SEC lent its stamp of approval.
Foinse: James Seffart, @JSefyyIn trying to forecast the near-term price impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, we must first understand for cé chomh fada agus chun cén méid Leanfaidh eis-sreafaí GBTC ar aghaidh. Seo thíos athbhreithniú ar na cúiseanna atá le heis-sreafaí GBTC, cé hiad na díoltóirí, a stoc-charn coibhneasta measta, agus cé chomh fada agus is féidir linn a bheith ag súil leis na heis-sreafaí. I ndeireadh na dála, tá na heis-sreafaí réamh-mheasta seo thar a bheith frith-intuigthe, ainneoin go bhfuil siad mór gan dabht bullish do bitcoin in the medium-term despite the downside volatility that we have all experienced (and perhaps most did not expect) post ETF-approval.
An Hangover GBTC: Ag Íoc Ar Atá É
First, some housekeeping on GBTC. It is now plainly clear just how important of a catalyst the GBTC arbitrage trade was in fomenting the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run. The GBTC premium was the rocket fuel driving the market higher, allowing market participants (3AC, Babel, Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager etc.) to acquire shares at net asset value, all the while marking their book value up to include the premium. Essentially, the premium drove demand for creation of GBTC shares, which in turn drove bidding for spot bitcoin. It was basically risk free…
Cé gur thóg an phréimh an margadh níos airde le linn rith tarbh 2020+ agus na billiúin dollar curtha isteach chun an phréimh GBTC a ghabháil, d'éirigh an scéal go géar go tapa. De réir mar a d’éirigh gé órga GBTC tirim agus gur thosaigh an tIontaobhas ag trádáil faoi bhun NAV i mí Feabhra 2021, tháinig slabhra leachtaithe nóiníní ina dhiaidh sin. Go bunúsach thug lascaine GBTC clár comhardaithe an tionscail ar fad síos leis.
Sparked by the implosion of Terra Luna in May 2022, cascading liquidations of GBTC shares by parties like 3AC and Babel (the so-called “crypto contagion”) ensued, pushing the GBTC discount down even further. Since then, GBTC has been an albatross around the neck of bitcoin, and continues to be, as the bankruptcy estates of those hung out to dry on the GBTC “risk free” trade are still liquidating their GBTC shares to this day. Of the aforementioned victims of the “risk free” trade and its collateral damage, the FTX estate (the largest of those parties) ar deireadh liquidated 20,000 BTC across the first 8 days of Spot Bitcoin ETF trading in order to pay back its creditors.
It is also important to note the role of the steep GBTC discount relative to NAV and its impact on spot bitcoin demand. The discount incentivized investors to go long GBTC and short BTC, collecting a BTC-denominated return as GBTC crept back up toward NAV. This dynamic further siphoned spot bitcoin demand away – a toxic combination that has further plagued the market until the GBTC discount recently returned to near-neutral post ETF approval.
Foinse: ycharts.comAgus é sin go léir ráite, tá méideanna suntasacha eastát féimheachta fós i seilbh GBTC agus leanfaidh siad ag leachtú ón stoc-charn de 600,000 BTC a bhí faoi úinéireacht Liathscála (512,000 BTC amhail an 26 Eanáir 2024). Seo a leanas iarracht aird a tharraingt ar chodanna éagsúla de scairshealbhóirí GBTC, agus ansin a léirmhíniú cad iad na heis-sreafaí breise a d’fhéadfaimis a fheiceáil de réir na straitéise airgeadais do gach deighleog.
An Straitéis is Fearr do Dheighleoga Éagsúla Úinéirí GBTC
Simply put, the question is: of the ~600,000 Bitcoin that were in the trust, how many of them are likely to exit GBTC in total? Subsequently, of those outflows, how many are going to rotate back into a Bitcoin product, or Bitcoin itself, thus largely negating the selling pressure? This is where it gets tricky, and knowing who owns GBTC shares, and what their incentives are, is important.
The two key aspects driving GBTC outflows are as follows: fee structure (1.5% annual fee) and idiosyncratic selling depending on each shareholder's unique financial circumstance (cost basis, tax incentives, bankruptcy etc.).
Eastáit Féimheachta
Úinéireacht Mheastachán: 15% (89.5m scaireanna | 77,000 BTC)
Amhail an 22 Eanáir, 2024 tá a sealúchais GBTC iomlán de 22m scaireanna (~20,000 BTC) leachtaithe ag eastát FTX. Tá thart ar 36m scaireanna (~32,000 BTC) ag páirtí féimheach eile, lena n-áirítear deirfiúr-chuideachta GBTC Genesis Global (31m scaireanna / ~28,000 BTC) agus eintiteas breise (nach n-aithnítear go poiblí).
A athdhearbhú: bhí thart ar 15.5% de scaireanna GBTC ag eastáit féimheachta (scair 90m / ~80,000 BTC), agus is dócha go ndíolfar an chuid is mó de na scaireanna seo nó iad go léir chomh luath agus is féidir go dlíthiúil chun creidiúnaithe na n-eastát seo a aisíoc. Tá 22 milliún scaireanna díolta ag eastát FTX cheana féin (~20,000 BTC), cé nach bhfuil sé soiléir má dhíol Genesis agus an páirtí eile a sciar. Agus é seo ar fad le chéile, is dócha go bhfuil cuid shuntasach de dhíolacháin féimheachta imithe i léig cheana féin ag an margadh le cúnamh i bpáirt ag FTX ag sracadh as an bandaid ar 22 Eanáir, 2024.
Rac amháin le cur leis na díolacháin féimheachta: is dócha nach mbeidh siad seo réidh nó tarraingthe amach, ach níos mó cnapshuime mar atá i gcás FTX. Os a choinne sin, is dócha go n-imeoidh cineálacha eile scairshealbhóirí as a bpoist ar bhealach níos tarraingtí seachas a sealúchais a leachtú i dtitim amháin. Chomh luath agus a thugtar aire do chrochtaí dlí, is beag seans go ndíolfar 100% de scaireanna eastát féimheachta.
Cuntais Bhróicéireachta Miondíola & Scoir
Úinéireacht Mheastachán: 50% (286.5m scaireanna | 255,000 BTC)
Next up, retail brokerage account shareholders. GBTC, as one of the first passive products available for retail investors when it launched in 2013, has a massive retail contingency. In my estimation, retail investors hold approximately 50% of GBTC shares (286m shares / ~255,000 bitcoin). This is the trickiest tranche of shares to project in terms of their optimal path forward because their decision to sell or not will depend upon the price of bitcoin, which then dictates the tax status for each share purchase.
For example, if the price of bitcoin rises, a greater proportion of retail shares will be in-profit, meaning if they rotate out of GBTC, they will incur a taxable event in the form of capital gains, thus they will likely stay put. However, the inverse is true as well. If the price of bitcoin continues to fall, more GBTC investors will not incur a taxable event, and thus will be incentivized to exit. This potential feedback loop marginally increases the pool of sellers that can exit without a tax penalty. Given GBTC’s unique availability to those early to bitcoin (therefore likely in profit), it is likely that most retail investors will stay put. To put a number on it, it is feasible that 25% retail brokerage accounts will sell, but this is subject to change depending upon bitcoin price action (as noted above).
Ina dhiaidh sin tá infheisteoirí miondíola againn a bhfuil stádas díolmhaithe ó cháin acu a leithdháileann trí IRAnna (cuntais scoir). Tá na scairshealbhóirí seo thar a bheith íogair i leith struchtúr na dtáillí agus is féidir leo díol gan imeacht inchánach i bhfianaise a stádas IRA. Le táille bhliantúil ollmhór 1.5% GBTC (sé huaire níos mó ná iomaitheoirí GBTC), tá sé cinnte go n-imeoidh cuid shuntasach den deighleog seo GBTC i bhfabhar ETFanna eile ar an láthair. Is dócha go n-imeoidh ~75% de na scairshealbhóirí seo amach, agus fanfaidh go leor acu mar gheall ar apathy nó míthuiscint ar struchtúr táillí GBTC i ndáil le táirgí eile (nó go simplí luach siad an leachtacht a thairgeann GBTC i ndáil le táirgí ETF eile).
On the bright side for spot bitcoin demand from retirement accounts, these GBTC outflows will likely be met with inflows into other Spot ETF products, as they will likely just rotate rather than exiting bitcoin into cash.
Scairshealbhóirí Institiúide
Úinéireacht Mheastachán: 35% (200,000,000 scair | 180,000 BTC)
And finally, we have the institutions, which account for approximately 180,000 bitcoin. These players include FirTree and Saba Capital, as well as hedge funds that wanted to arbitrage the GBTC discount and spot bitcoin price discrepancy. This was done by going long GBTC and short bitcoin in order to have net neutral bitcoin positioning and capture GBTC’s return to NAV.
Mar caveat, tá an tráinse scairshealbhóirí seo teimhneach agus deacair a thuar, agus chomh acts as a bellwether for bitcoin demand from TradFi. For those with GBTC exposure purely for the aforementioned arbitrage trade, we can assume they will not return to purchase bitcoin through any other mechanism. We estimate investors of this type to make up 25% of all GBTC shares (143m shares / ~130,000 BTC). This is by no means certain, but it would reason that greater than 50% of TradFi will exit to cash without returning to a bitcoin product or physical bitcoin.
Do Bitcoin-native funds and Bitcoin whales (~5% of total shares), it is likely that their sold GBTC shares will be recycled into bitcoin, resulting in a net-flat impact on bitcoin price. For crypto-native investors (~5% of total shares), they will likely exit GBTC into cash and other crypto assets (not bitcoin). Combined, these two cohorts (57m shares / ~50,000 BTC) will have a net neutral to slightly negative impact on bitcoin price given their relative rotations to cash and bitcoin.
Total GBTC Outflows & Net Bitcoin Tionchar
Le bheith soiléir, tá cuid mhór neamhchinnteachta sna réamh-mheastacháin seo, ach is meastachán iontach é seo a leanas ar an tírdhreach iomlán fuascailte i bhfianaise na dinimic a luaitear idir eastáit féimheachta, cuntais bróicéireachta miondíola, cuntais scoir, agus infheisteoirí institiúideacha.
Miondealú ar Eis-sreafaí Réamh-mheasta:
250,000 to 350,000 BTC total projected GBTC outflows100,000 to 150,000 BTC expected to leave the trust and be converted into cash150,000 to 200,000 BTC in GBTC outflows rotating into other trusts or products250,000 to 350,000 bitcoin will remain in GBTC100,000 to 150,000 net-BTC selling pressureIOMLÁN Eis-sreafaí a Bhaineann le GBTC a bhfuiltear ag súil leo mar thoradh ar Bhrú Díolacháin Glan-BTC: 100,000 go 150,000 BTC
Amhail an 26 Eanáir, 2024 thart ar 115,000 bitcoin have left GBTC. Given Alameda’s recorded sale (20,000 bitcoin), we estimate that of the other ~95,000 bitcoin, half have rotated into cash, and half have rotated into bitcoin nó eile bitcoin products. This implies net-neutral market impact from GBTC outflows.
Eis-sreafaí Measta fós Le Tarlú:
Bankruptcy Estates: 55,000Retail Brokerage Accounts: 65,000 - 75,000 BTCRetirement Accounts: 10,000 - 12,250 BTCInstitutional Investors: 35,000 - 40,000 BTCTOTAL Estimated Outflows To Come: ~135,000 - 230,000 BTC
Tabhair faoi deara: mar a dúradh cheana, is toradh iad na meastacháin seo ar anailís heorastúil agus níor cheart iad a léirmhíniú mar chomhairle airgeadais agus go simplí é a bheith mar aidhm acu an léitheoir a chur ar an eolas faoin tírdhreach eis-sreafa iomlán. Féadfaidh cuma. Ina theannta sin, tá na meastacháin seo de bhun coinníollacha an mhargaidh.
De réir a chéile, ansin go tobann: Slán le Bears
In summary, we estimate that the market has already stomached approximately 30-45% of all projected GBTC outflows (115,000 BTC of 250,000-300,000 BTC projected total outflows) and that the remaining 55-70% of expected outflows will follow in short order over the next 20-30 trading days. All in, 150,000 - 200,000 BTC in net selling pressure may result from GBTC sales given that the significant proportion of GBTC outflows will either rotate into other Spot ETF products, or into cold storage bitcoin.
We are through the brunt of the pain from Barry silbert’s GBTC gauntlet and that is reason to celebrate. The market will be much better off on the other side: GBTC will have finally relinquished its stranglehold over bitcoin markets, and without the specter of the discount or future firesales hanging over the market, bitcoin will be much less encumbered when it does arise. While it will take time to digest the rest of the GBTC outflows, and there will likely be a long tail of people exiting their position (mentioned previously), bitcoin will have plenty of room to run when the Spot ETFs settle into a groove.
Ó, agus ar luaigh mé go bhfuil an leath ag teacht? Ach sin scéal go ceann tamaill eile.
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Foinse bunaidh: Bitcoin Magazine