Por NewsBTC - hai 1 ano - Tempo de lectura: 4 minutos
Ethereum Merge: como o ETHBTC podería indicar un retorno do apetito polo risco
The merge is near, so it’s Ethereum time to shine. The eternal second most popular cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been outperforming bitcoin for the last few days. Is the reason the return of the market’s appetite for risk? Or is it just the fact that Ethereum’s developers announced a specific date for the mythical merge? Let’s examine the numbers, the facts, and the experts’ opinions to figure out exactly what’s going on.
In The Weekly Update, Arcane Research’s newsletter, they point out that the ETHBTC pair surged “ from 0.053 on July 12th to 0.7 on July 19th.” It’s at “levels not seen since mid-May,” but why? According to Arcane, it “might be related to increased risk appetite in the market, evident by sharp altcoin recoveries across the board.” They identify another factor, “Celsius repaid its DeFi loans. This contributed to reducing the downward gravitational pull enforced by potential liquidations and contagion-related uncertainty.”
E despois, por suposto, está a fusión.
Que din os expertos sobre a fusión?The facts are the facts, Ethereum is on a roll. In a previous report, NewsBTC analyzed the state of the market:
"Ethereum superou agora un punto técnico importante. Despois de estar por debaixo da media móbil de 50 días durante a maior parte do mes pasado, ETH cambiou este nivel técnico e agora está sentado cómodamente por riba del. A implicación disto foi un xiro completo de 180 graos de baixa a alcista, especialmente a curto prazo.
En canto á causa probable, Arcane Research xa nomeou dous. O principal, porén, é a posibilidade da fusión. Volver á actualización semanal:
"O xoves 14 de xullo, o membro da Fundación Ethereum, Tim Beiko, suxeriu o 19 de setembro como data de lanzamento provisional para a fusión. Isto podería ter beneficiado a ETH, o que provocou o aumento da semana pasada. Despois do anuncio, o token ETH apostado de Lido achegouse á paridade ETH.
In another NewsBTC report, we quoted another expert trying to make sense of the situation. According to Youwei Yang, director of financial analytics at StoneX, the causes for the recent surge are:
"O primeiro é o momento anunciado recentemente para a actualización de "fusión" de Ethereum, que debería facer que a rede sexa significativamente máis eficiente enerxéticamente. Yang afirma que a "calmación" das ansiedades macroeconómicas é a segunda.
ETHBTC price chart on Coinbase | Source: ETHBTC by The Weekly Update Is Ethereum’s Merge a “Buy The Rumor” Event?O cambio de Proof-Of-Work ao mecanismo de consenso Proof-Of-Stake si usa menos enerxía, pero trae consigo o seu propio conxunto de problemas. Discutir sobre eles está fóra do alcance deste artigo. A parte importante da ecuación para os posuidores de Ethereum é que a fusión finalmente traerá a participación nativa na cadea de bloques. Os miles de ETH que xa están encerrados na cadea Beacon producirán finalmente resultados reais e un novo tipo de usuario, os validadores.
Isto é suficiente para xustificar a subida dos prezos? Absolutamente. Está garantido que a fusión se faga o 19 de setembro? Probablemente non, tendo en conta que Ethereum xa pospuxo a súa bomba de dificultade cinco veces.
Gráfico de prezos de ETH para o 07/20/2022 Bitfinex | Source: ETH/USD on TradingView.com Is The Contagion Event That Sent Everything To Red Over?According to Arcane, “contagion seems to be resolving now, with prices stabilizing. This recovery may be viewed as a healthy confirmation of the market normalizing as market stress settles down.” Their interpretation of the situation might be overly optimistic, though. A pseudonymous Twitter user that identifies himself as “a trader/defi analyst at a major crypto fund and use Nansen almost daily,” thinks more pain is on the way with or without the merge.
4/ There are dozens of wallets just like these that 3AC still has with thousands of ETH. It’s very likely that all of these wallets are going to be liquidated in order to pay back creditors. Check out the number of funds that have been moved around from just one wallet alone. pic.twitter.com/75HkR097zV
— jbjbjb (@bryptobricks) July 19, 2022
The Three Arrows Capital trial is still unfolding, and “3AC still has with thousands of ETH. It’s very likely that all of these wallets are going to be liquidated in order to pay back creditors.” If that happens, it’s “going to cause a harsh sell-off across the broader crypto ecosystem, setting up the next catalyst down.”
Lamento chover no desfile de Ethereum, pero eses son os feitos. Boa sorte coa fusión, porén.
Featured Image by Loic Leray on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView and The Weekly UpdateOrixe orixinal: NewsBTC