By Bitcoin Revista - hai 3 meses - Tempo de lectura: 3 minutos
Teoría de xogos do crime financeiro: conclusións políticas Bitcoin
Significant shifts are underway in the ecosystem of illicit actors using cryptocurrency. According to a 2023 denunciar by TRM Labs, Bitcoin is no longer the asset of choice for criminals.
O informe di: “The multi-chain era has had a sweeping impact on the distribution of illicit crypto volume as a whole, where Bitcoin’s share plummeted from 97% in 2016 to 19% in 2022. In 2016, two thirds of crypto hack volume was on Bitcoin; in 2022, it accounted for just under 3%, with Ethereum (68%) and Binance Smart Chain (19%) dominating the field. And while Bitcoin was the exclusive currency for terrorist financing in 2016, by 2022 it was all but replaced by assets on the TRON blockchain, cun 92%. "
Ramificacións do cambio
Clearly, this turns the adage of Bitcoin being synonymous with criminal activity, on its head.
Desde o inicio, Bitcoin has functioned as a Schelling Point due to its network effect, market dominance and liquidity, making it a natural choice in cryptofinance.
(Na linguaxe da Teoría de Xogos, un punto de Schelling é unha solución natural en situacións nas que varias partes deben tomar decisións sen comunicación directa. Estes puntos son intuitivamente obvios, a miúdo baseándose en expectativas compartidas ou coñecemento común).
Porén, agora parece que hai unha separación continua de equilibrios con malos actores que optan por un punto de converxencia diferente.
Políticas para levar
Este movemento ofrece algunhas aprendizaxes clave desde unha perspectiva política.
Destaca a necesidade de que os responsables políticos estuden detidamente activos e cadeas de bloques específicos que actualmente están a ser favorecidos por actores ilícitos e tomen as medidas adecuadas. Máis importante aínda, ofrece un momento oportuno para substituír a perspectiva xenérica actual sobre os activos dixitais por outra máis matizada, ao tempo que configura as narrativas políticas sobre o uso criminal.
Case in point, in the ongoing discussion on use of cryptoassets in terror financing, it often gets missed that Hamas has in fact deixou de aceptar Bitcoin donations, to protect its sponsors from being unveiled.
But most importantly, this shift of illicit finance away from Bitcoin, is the first ever documented case of major crime displacement in the world of cryptoassets. It sheds light on the fluid nature of Financial Crime as it adapts to the path of least resistance.
Perspectivas da Teoría de Xogos
Consequently, a game-theoretic lens (with the players being - product devs, regulators, good and bad actors) enables a holistic and nuanced view of the space. We can see that in such a setting, interplay of independent actions and perspectives, generates myriad scenarios as the system is too intertwined for any set of players to control outcomes only by themselves.
Unha visión teórica do xogo das finanzas ilícitas expón a necesidade de entrar na mente criminal para prever os próximos pasos e prepararse en consecuencia. A formulación de políticas para combater os fluxos de fondos ilegais adoita ser retroactiva e os malos actores realizan os primeiros movementos, que logo son estudados como riscos emerxentes para elaborar as regulacións en consecuencia. Non obstante, co espazo dos activos dixitais evolucionando a un ritmo exponencial, non temos o luxo de seguir este enfoque de whack-a-mole (que pasa a ser a norma ao deseñar a normativa de Finanzas Tradicionais).
The ongoing wave of crime displacement away from Bitcoin, highlights the necessity to arm policymakers with predictive systems that forecast future patterns of illicit fund flows. Such an approach will vastly minimize response time to new threats.
Iniciativas de loita contra o crime
Lessons from Bitcoin’s changing usage, can also help counter-crime professionals grasp distinct features of organized crime syndicates. Case in point, crime rings still reliant on Bitcoin would signify a lack of agility in leadership. Additionally, position on an ‘agility spectrum’ can help infer further actionable insights about any syndicate, such its level of resourcefulness and technical expertise. This can also aid law enforcement in sizing the unique effort required in combating each crime ring. Case in point, crime syndicates which pioneered the shift away from Bitcoin, and are (consequently) ahead of the curve, would be operating at a relatively higher level of ingenuity, while continuously adapting to slip through the cracks.
Pensamentos Finais
The switch of financial crime away from Bitcoin, sheds light on the need of a more nuanced approach to curating apt and dynamic regulatory and policy frameworks for digital assets and blockchains. It also highlights the dangers of applying broad strokes to the entire spectrum of cryptofinance, when it comes to policy debates on criminal usage.
This is a guest post by Debanjan Chatterjee. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Revista.
Orixe orixinal: Bitcoin Revista