By Bitcoin Magazine - 3 months ago - Reading Time: 9 minutes
GBTC Outflows: Previzyon total Bitcoin Vann presyon ak enpak sou mache
Sa ki anba la a se yon analiz euristik nan GBTC ekoulman ekoulman yo epi li pa gen entansyon yo dwe entèdi matematik, men olye yo sèvi kòm yon zouti ede moun konprann eta aktyèl la nan GBTC vann soti nan yon nivo segondè, epi estime echèl la nan ekoulman pwodiksyon nan lavni ki ka. rive.
Nimewo Desann
January 25, 2024 – Since Wall Street came to Bitcoin anba ejid yo nan Tach ETF approval, the market has been met with relentless selling from the largest pool of bitcoin in the world: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which held more than 630,000 bitcoin at its peak. After conversion from a closed-end fund to a Spot ETF, GBTC’s treasury (3% of all 21 million bitcoin) has bled more than $4 billion during the first 9 days of ETF trading, while other ETF participants have seen inflows of approximately $5.2 billion over that same period. The result – $824 million in net inflows – is somewhat surprising given the sharply negative price action since the SEC lent its stamp of approval.
sous: James Seffart, @JSefyyIn trying to forecast the near-term price impact of Spot Bitcoin etf, we must first understand for konbyen tan ak ki grandè GBTC ap kontinye. Anba la a se yon revizyon sou kòz GBTC ekoulman yo, ki moun ki vandè yo ye, estimasyon depo relatif yo, ak konbyen tan nou ka atann ekoulman yo pran. Finalman, ekoulman pwodiksyon sa yo prevwa, malgre yo se san dout gwo, se counterintuitively ekstrèmman optimis pou bitcoin in the medium-term despite the downside volatility that we have all experienced (and perhaps most did not expect) post ETF-approval.
GBTC Hangover: Peye pou li
First, some housekeeping on GBTC. It is now plainly clear just how important of a catalyst the GBTC arbitrage trade was in fomenting the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run. The GBTC premium was the rocket fuel driving the market higher, allowing market participants (3AC, Babel, Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager etc.) to acquire shares at net asset value, all the while marking their book value up to include the premium. Essentially, the premium drove demand for creation of GBTC shares, which in turn drove bidding for spot bitcoin. It was basically risk free…
Pandan ke prim lan te pran mache a pi wo pandan kous towo bèf 2020+ la ak dè milya de dola te vide nan pran prim GBTC a, istwa a byen vit vire tounen. Kòm zwa an lò GBTC te seche ak Trust la te kòmanse komès anba NAV nan mwa fevriye 2021, yon chèn daisy nan likidasyon te vini. Rabè GBTC a esansyèlman te pran bilan endistri a tout antye desann ak li.
Sparked by the implosion of Terra Luna in May 2022, cascading liquidations of GBTC shares by parties like 3AC and Babel (the so-called “crypto contagion”) ensued, pushing the GBTC discount down even further. Since then, GBTC has been an albatross around the neck of bitcoin, and continues to be, as the bankruptcy estates of those hung out to dry on the GBTC “risk free” trade are still liquidating their GBTC shares to this day. Of the aforementioned victims of the “risk free” trade and its collateral damage, the FTX estate (the largest of those parties) finalman liquidated 20,000 BTC across the first 8 days of Spot Bitcoin ETF trading in order to pay back its creditors.
It is also important to note the role of the steep GBTC discount relative to NAV and its impact on spot bitcoin demand. The discount incentivized investors to go long GBTC and short BTC, collecting a BTC-denominated return as GBTC crept back up toward NAV. This dynamic further siphoned spot bitcoin demand away – a toxic combination that has further plagued the market until the GBTC discount recently returned to near-neutral post ETF approval.
sous: ycharts.comAvèk tout sa ki di, gen yon kantite konsiderab nan byen fayit ki toujou kenbe GBTC epi yo pral kontinye likide nan depo a nan 600,000 BTC ke Grayscale posede (512,000 BTC apati 26 janvye 2024). Sa ki anba la a se yon tantativ pou mete aksan sou diferan segman nan aksyonè GBTC, ak Lè sa a, entèprete ki ekoulman adisyonèl nou ka wè an akò ak estrateji finansye a pou chak segman.
Estrateji Optimal Pou Segman Diferan Pwopriyetè GBTC
Simply put, the question is: of the ~600,000 Bitcoin that were in the trust, how many of them are likely to exit GBTC in total? Subsequently, of those outflows, how many are going to rotate back into a Bitcoin product, or Bitcoin itself, thus largely negating the selling pressure? This is where it gets tricky, and knowing who owns GBTC shares, and what their incentives are, is important.
The two key aspects driving GBTC outflows are as follows: fee structure (1.5% annual fee) and idiosyncratic selling depending on each shareholder's unique financial circumstance (cost basis, tax incentives, bankruptcy etc.).
Bankwout Estates
Estimasyon Pwopriyetè: 15% (89.5m aksyon | 77,000 BTC)
Apati 22 janvye 2024, byen imobilye FTX te likide tout 22m aksyon GBTC li yo (~20,000 BTC). Lòt pati depourvu, ki gen ladan GBTC sè konpayi Genesis Global (36m aksyon / ~ 32,000 BTC) ak yon lòt antite (ki pa idantifye piblikman) kenbe apeprè 31m aksyon (~28,000 BTC).
Pou repete: Estasyon fayit yo te kenbe apeprè 15.5% nan aksyon GBTC (90m aksyon / ~ 80,000 BTC), epi gen anpil chans pou pifò oswa tout aksyon sa yo pral vann pi vit ke legalman posib yo nan lòd yo remèt kreditè yo nan byen sa yo. Imobilye FTX te deja vann 22 milyon aksyon (~ 20,000 BTC), pandan ke li pa klè si Jenèz ak lòt pati a te vann mennen yo. Lè nou pran tout bagay sa yo ansanm, li posib ke mache a te deja dijere yon pati enpòtan nan lavant fayit, ak yon ti kras ede FTX te rache bandaid la nan dat 22 janvye 2024.
Yon ondilasyon ajoute nan lavant yo fayit: sa yo pral gen anpil chans pa dwe lis oswa trase soti, men plis sòm total tankou nan ka a nan FTX. Kontrèman, lòt kalite aksyonè ap gen chans pou sòti nan pozisyon yo nan yon fason ki pi rale olye ke yo likide holding yo nan yon sèl kou. Yon fwa ke hangups legal yo pran swen, li trè posib ke 100% nan aksyon nan byen imobilye fayit yo pral vann.
Yo Vann an Detay Brokerage & Kont pou pran retrèt
Estimasyon Pwopriyetè: 50% (286.5m aksyon | 255,000 BTC)
Next up, retail brokerage account shareholders. GBTC, as one of the first passive products available for retail investors when it launched in 2013, has a massive retail contingency. In my estimation, retail investors hold approximately 50% of GBTC shares (286m shares / ~255,000 bitcoin). This is the trickiest tranche of shares to project in terms of their optimal path forward because their decision to sell or not will depend upon the price of bitcoin, which then dictates the tax status for each share purchase.
For example, if the price of bitcoin rises, a greater proportion of retail shares will be in-profit, meaning if they rotate out of GBTC, they will incur a taxable event in the form of capital gains, thus they will likely stay put. However, the inverse is true as well. If the price of bitcoin continues to fall, more GBTC investors will not incur a taxable event, and thus will be incentivized to exit. This potential feedback loop marginally increases the pool of sellers that can exit without a tax penalty. Given GBTC’s unique availability to those early to bitcoin (therefore likely in profit), it is likely that most retail investors will stay put. To put a number on it, it is feasible that 25% retail brokerage accounts will sell, but this is subject to change depending upon bitcoin price action (as noted above).
Next moute nou gen envestisè Yo Vann an Detay ak yon estati egzante taks ki resevwa lajan atravè IRAs (kont retrèt). Aksyonè sa yo trè sansib nan estrikti frè a epi yo ka vann san yon evènman taksab bay estati IRA yo. Avèk frè anyèl GBTC 1.5% (sis fwa konpetitè GBTC yo), li se tout men sèten yon pati enpòtan nan segman sa a pral sòti GBTC an favè lòt ETF plas. Li posib ke ~75% nan aksyonè sa yo pral sòti, pandan ke anpil ap rete akòz apati oswa enkonpreyansyon nan estrikti frè GBTC a an relasyon ak lòt pwodwi (oswa yo tou senpleman valè lajan likid sikile ke GBTC ofri an relasyon ak lòt pwodwi ETF).
On the bright side for spot bitcoin demand from retirement accounts, these GBTC outflows will likely be met with inflows into other Spot ETF products, as they will likely just rotate rather than exiting bitcoin into cash.
Aksyonè Enstitisyonèl
Estimasyon Pwopriyetè: 35% (200,000,000 aksyon | 180,000 BTC)
And finally, we have the institutions, which account for approximately 180,000 bitcoin. These players include FirTree and Saba Capital, as well as hedge funds that wanted to arbitrage the GBTC discount and spot bitcoin price discrepancy. This was done by going long GBTC and short bitcoin in order to have net neutral bitcoin positioning and capture GBTC’s return to NAV.
Kòm yon opozisyon, tranch sa a nan aksyonè se opak ak difisil pou pwevwa, ak Tou acts as a bellwether for bitcoin demand from TradFi. For those with GBTC exposure purely for the aforementioned arbitrage trade, we can assume they will not return to purchase bitcoin through any other mechanism. We estimate investors of this type to make up 25% of all GBTC shares (143m shares / ~130,000 BTC). This is by no means certain, but it would reason that greater than 50% of TradFi will exit to cash without returning to a bitcoin product or physical bitcoin.
Pou Bitcoin-native funds and Bitcoin whales (~5% of total shares), it is likely that their sold GBTC shares will be recycled into bitcoin, resulting in a net-flat impact on bitcoin price. For crypto-native investors (~5% of total shares), they will likely exit GBTC into cash and other crypto assets (not bitcoin). Combined, these two cohorts (57m shares / ~50,000 BTC) will have a net neutral to slightly negative impact on bitcoin price given their relative rotations to cash and bitcoin.
Total GBTC Outflows & Net Bitcoin Enpak
Pou nou klè, gen yon gwo kantite ensètitid nan pwojeksyon sa yo, men sa ki annapre yo se yon estimasyon basen nan peyizaj redanmsyon an jeneral yo bay dinamik yo mansyone ant Estates fayit, kont koutye an detay, kont retrèt, ak envestisè enstitisyonèl.
Pann ekoulman yo prevwa:
250,000 to 350,000 BTC total projected GBTC outflows100,000 to 150,000 BTC expected to leave the trust and be converted into cash150,000 to 200,000 BTC in GBTC outflows rotating into other trusts or products250,000 to 350,000 bitcoin will remain in GBTC100,000 to 150,000 net-BTC selling pressureTOTAL ekoulman ki gen rapò ak GBTC espere ki lakòz Presyon Vann Net-BTC: 100,000 a 150,000 BTC
Depi 26 janvye 2024 apeprè 115,000 bitcoin have left GBTC. Given Alameda’s recorded sale (20,000 bitcoin), we estimate that of the other ~95,000 bitcoin, half have rotated into cash, and half have rotated into bitcoin oswa lòt bitcoin products. This implies net-neutral market impact from GBTC outflows.
Estimasyon ekoulman pwodiksyon yo poko fèt:
Bankruptcy Estates: 55,000Retail Brokerage Accounts: 65,000 - 75,000 BTCRetirement Accounts: 10,000 - 12,250 BTCInstitutional Investors: 35,000 - 40,000 BTCTOTAL Estimated Outflows To Come: ~135,000 - 230,000 BTC
Remak: jan sa te di deja, estimasyon sa yo se rezilta yon analiz euristik epi yo pa ta dwe entèprete kòm konsèy finansye epi tou senpleman vize pou enfòme lektè a sou sa ki jaden an jeneral ekoulman pwodiksyon an. kapab sanble. Anplis de sa, estimasyon sa yo dapre kondisyon mache yo.
Piti piti, Lè sa a toudenkou: yon adieu pou lous
In summary, we estimate that the market has already stomached approximately 30-45% of all projected GBTC outflows (115,000 BTC of 250,000-300,000 BTC projected total outflows) and that the remaining 55-70% of expected outflows will follow in short order over the next 20-30 trading days. All in, 150,000 - 200,000 BTC in net selling pressure may result from GBTC sales given that the significant proportion of GBTC outflows will either rotate into other Spot ETF products, or into cold storage bitcoin.
We are through the brunt of the pain from Barry Silbert’s GBTC gauntlet and that is reason to celebrate. The market will be much better off on the other side: GBTC will have finally relinquished its stranglehold over bitcoin markets, and without the specter of the discount or future firesales hanging over the market, bitcoin will be much less encumbered when it does arise. While it will take time to digest the rest of the GBTC outflows, and there will likely be a long tail of people exiting their position (mentioned previously), bitcoin will have plenty of room to run when the Spot ETFs settle into a groove.
Oh, e mwen te mansyone mwatye a ap vini? Men, sa se yon istwa pou yon lòt fwa.
Bitcoin Magazine is wholly owned by BTC Inc., which operates Jesyon UTXO, a regulated capital allocator focused on the digital assets industry. UTXO invests in a variety of Bitcoin biznis yo, epi kenbe byen enpòtan nan byen dijital.
Sous orijinal: Bitcoin Magazine