By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 tahun lalu - Waktu Membaca: 5 menit
Kekacauan Pasar dan Panggilan Bitcoin Harga Bawah
A contrarian take on the current market structure suggesting that the bitcoin bottom is near and the Federal Reserve will reverse its hawkish course.
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Tonton Episodenya Disini :
AppleSpotifyGoogleLibsynMendungIn this episode of the “Fed Watch” podcast, Christian Keroles and I, along with the livestream crew, discuss macro developments relevant to bitcoin. Topics include the recent 50 bps rate hike from the Fed, a consumer price index (CPI) preview — the episode was recorded live on Tuesday, before the CPI data was released — and a discussion on why owners’ equivalent rent is often misunderstood. We wrap up with an epic discussion of the bitcoin harga.
This could be a pivotal episode in the history of “Fed Watch,” because I’m on the record saying that bitcoin is “in the neighborhood” of the bottom. This is in stark contrast to the mainstream uber-bearishness in the market right now. In this episode, I rely heavily on charts that didn’t always line up during the video. Those charts are provided below with a basic explanation. You can see the seluruh dek slide yang saya gunakan di sini.
“Fed Watch” adalah podcast untuk orang-orang yang tertarik dengan peristiwa terkini bank sentral dan bagaimana caranya Bitcoin akan mengintegrasikan atau menggantikan aspek sistem keuangan tradisional. Untuk memahami caranya bitcoin akan menjadi uang global, pertama-tama kita harus memahami apa yang terjadi sekarang.
Federal Reserve Dan Nomor Ekonomi Untuk AS
Pada grafik pertama ini, saya menunjuk ke dua kenaikan suku bunga terakhir Fed pada grafik S&P 500. saya menulis di posting blog minggu ini, “Apa yang ingin saya tunjukkan adalah bahwa kenaikan suku bunga itu sendiri bukanlah alat utama Federal Reserve. Berbicara tentang kenaikan suku bunga adalah alat utama, sekaligus menumbuhkan keyakinan akan keajaiban The Fed.” Hapus tanda panah dan coba tebak di mana pengumumannya.
(sumber)Hal yang sama berlaku untuk grafik berikutnya: emas.
(sumber)Lastly, for this section, we looked at the bitcoin chart with quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) plotted. As you can see, in the era with “No QE,” from 2015 to 2019, bitcoin experienced a 6,000% bull market. This is almost the exact opposite of what one would expect. To summarize this section, Fed policy has little to do with major swings in the market. Swings come from the unknowable complex ebbs and flows of the market. The Federal Reserve only tries to smooth the edges.
(sumber)Kekacauan CPI
Sulit untuk menulis ringkasan yang baik dari bagian podcast ini, karena kami ditayangkan satu hari sebelum data turun. Di podcast, saya cover IHK Zona Euro naik sedikit, menjadi 7.5% di bulan April tahun ke tahun (YoY), dengan tingkat perubahan bulan ke bulan turun dari 2.5% yang mengejutkan di bulan Maret menjadi 0.6% di bulan April. Itulah cerita yang kebanyakan orang lewatkan tentang CPI: perubahan bulan ke bulan dengan cepat melambat di bulan April. Saya juga membahas perkiraan CPI untuk AS di podcast, tetapi sekarang, kami memiliki data keras untuk bulan April. IHK utama AS turun dari 8.5% di bulan Maret menjadi 8.3% di bulan April. Perubahan bulan ke bulan turun dari 1.2% di bulan Maret menjadi 0.3% di bulan April. Sekali lagi, penurunan besar dalam tingkat kenaikan CPI. CPI bisa sangat membingungkan saat melihat angka YoY.
Sepertinya inflasi di bulan April tercatat sebesar 8.3%, padahal sebenarnya hanya sebesar 0.3%.
CPI tahun ke tahun, CPI bulan ke bulan (sumber)Next topic we cover in the podcast is rent. I very often hear misunderstandings of the CPI measure on shelter and specifically owners’ equivalent rent (OER). For starters, it’s very hard to measure the impact of increases to housing costs on consumers in general. Most people do not move very often. We have 15- or 30-year fixed-rate mortgages that are not affected at all by current home prices. Even rental leases are not renewed every month. Contracts typically last a year, sometimes more. Therefore, if a few people pay higher rents in a certain month, that does not affect the average person’s shelter expenses or the average landlord’s revenue.
Taking current market prices for rentals or homes is a dishonest way to estimate the average cost of housing, yet not doing so is the most often-quoted critique of the CPI. Caveat: I’m not saying CPI measures inflation (money printing); it measures an index of prices to maintain your standard of living. Of course, there are many layers of subjectivity in this statistic. OER more accurately estimates changes in housing costs for the average American, smooths out volatility and separates pure shelter costs from investment value.
Bitcoin Analisis Harga
The rest of the episode is talking about the current bitcoin price action. I start my bullish rant by showing the hash rate chart and talking about why it is a lagging and confirming indicator. With the hash rate at all-time highs and consistently increasing, this suggests that bitcoin is fairly valued at its current level.
Bitcoin tingkat hash (sumber) Sejarah dari bitcoin drawdowns (sumber)Beberapa tahun terakhir telah melihat reli yang lebih pendek dan lebih kecil dan penarikan yang lebih pendek dan lebih kecil. Bagan ini menunjukkan bahwa penarikan 50% adalah normal baru, bukan 85%.
Now, we get into some technical analysis. I concentrate on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) because it is very basic and a fundamental building block of many other indicators. Monthly RSI is at levels that typically signal cycle bottoms. Currently, the monthly metric shows that bitcoin is more oversold than at the bottom of the corona crash in 2020. Weekly RSI is equally as oversold. It is as low as the bottom of the corona crash in 2020, and before that, the bottom of the bear market in 2018.
Indeks Ketakutan dan Keserakahan juga sangat rendah. Ukuran ini menunjukkan "Ketakutan Ekstrim" yang biasanya tercatat di posisi terbawah relatif dan pada 10, mengikat untuk peringkat terendah sejak jatuhnya COVID-19 pada tahun 2020.
(sumber)Singkatnya, argumen kontrarian (bullish) saya adalah:
Bitcoin is already at historic lows and could bottom at any moment. The global economy is getting worse and bitcoin is counterparty-free, sound money, so it should behave similarly to 2015 at the end of QE.The Fed will be forced to reverse its narrative in the coming months which could relieve downward pressure on stocks.Bitcoin is closely tied to the U.S. economy at this point, and the U.S. will weather the coming recession better than most other places.Itu berlaku untuk minggu ini. Terima kasih kepada para pembaca dan pendengar. Jika Anda menikmati konten ini, silakan berlangganan, tinjau, dan bagikan!
Ini adalah posting tamu oleh Ansel Lindner. Pendapat yang diungkapkan sepenuhnya milik mereka sendiri dan tidak mencerminkan pendapat BTC Inc. atau Bitcoin majalah.
Sumber asli: Bitcoin majalah