Menggunakan Bitcoin Turunan Untuk Membedakan Spekulasi Dari Momentum Sejati

By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 tahun lalu - Waktu Membaca: 3 menit
Kam, 29 Sep 2022 3:00 AM

Menggunakan Bitcoin Turunan Untuk Membedakan Spekulasi Dari Momentum Sejati

menganalisis bitcoin derivatives gives a window into the state of the market conditions and can provide clues for when bitcoin has reached an absolute bottom.

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This article covers some of the recent action in the bitcoin derivatives market, as well as touches on the evolving relationship between bitcoin and the legacy financial system.

The action in global capital markets has been intense, with massive volatility across currencies, more selling in bonds and a brief bullish deviation for bitcoin, which excited the bulls.

As bitcoin pushed back above $20,000, there was some chatter of a potential decoupling, as bitcoin was up over 7% while U.S. equity markets were down approximately 4% over the last week. While we would certainly love to see a moment where bitcoin finds relief during an increasingly tumultuous environment in the legacy financial system, we remain skeptical on this outcome over the near future, as the data just doesn’t support it.

We cannot emphasize enough that the current trading environment for bitcoin is less about bitcoin itself and more about the dollar. As yields across maturities and currencies are soaring higher, the value of global assets is collapsing in tandem, which will subsequently lead to a day of reckoning where everything sells in tandem.

Seperti yang ingin kami katakan, gelembung segalanya mulai terbuka, karena aset yang berada di dasar semuanya, obligasi Treasury AS, terus mengeluarkan darah.

Let’s return back to bitcoin for a moment. What was the period of outperformance from, and can we expect more of it soon?

The simple answer is that the type of buying that was occurring — long positions in the bitcoin futures market — is never one of sustainable nature.

Puluhan ribu bitcoin worth of net buying became net sellers in hours, as the surge in open interest that led to the increase in market price quickly fell underwater. 

Our belief in regards to the bitcoin derivatives market and its insight into the state of the market cycle is the following:

Ketika variabel suku bunga negatif secara signifikan, beban penjualan spot dan pelepasan leverage telah terjadi. Tingkat bunga variabel di seluruh kompleks berjangka abadi dapat memberi kita wawasan tentang apakah kenaikan atau penurunan terlalu agresif.

When the funding rate is significantly negative, it can be because of both closing long positions driving the price below the spot market or due to aggressive short positions pushing the price lower. The funding rates in today's market environment are much more muted than the craziness seen in 2021.

Our expectation is that a volatility in legacy markets would lead to a large liquidation in bitcoin derivatives, driving the price below spot markets, while short traders piled on. This would be seen by a drastically negative perpetual futures funding rate (variable interest rate that incentivizes traders to settle prices close to the spot market rate).

Kami belum melihat itu, dalam hal level di mana pasar 2020 dan 2021 mencapai titik terendah.

Pasar tidak ada hari ini, menurut perkiraan kami.

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