By Bitcoin Tímarit - fyrir 3 mánuðum - Lestur: 3 mínútur
Game Theory of Financial Crime: Policy Takeaways From Bitcoin
Significant shifts are underway in the ecosystem of illicit actors using cryptocurrency. According to a 2023 tilkynna by TRM Labs, Bitcoin is no longer the asset of choice for criminals.
Í skýrslunni segir: „The multi-chain era has had a sweeping impact on the distribution of illicit crypto volume as a whole, where Bitcoin’s share plummeted from 97% in 2016 to 19% in 2022. In 2016, two thirds of crypto hack volume was on Bitcoin; in 2022, it accounted for just under 3%, with Ethereum (68%) and Binance Smart Chain (19%) dominating the field. And while Bitcoin was the exclusive currency for terrorist financing in 2016, by 2022 it was all but replaced by assets on the TRON blockchain, með 92%. "
Afleiðingar vaktarinnar
Clearly, this turns the adage of Bitcoin being synonymous with criminal activity, on its head.
Frá upphafi, Bitcoin has functioned as a Schelling Point due to its network effect, market dominance and liquidity, making it a natural choice in cryptofinance.
(Í leikjafræðimáli er Schelling Point eðlileg lausn í aðstæðum þar sem margir aðilar verða að taka ákvarðanir án beinna samskipta. Þessir punktar eru innsæi augljósir og byggja oft á sameiginlegum væntingum eða sameiginlegri þekkingu.)
Hins vegar virðist nú sem það sé áframhaldandi aðskilnaður jafnvægis þar sem slæmir leikarar velja annan samleitni.
Stefnutökur
Þessi ráðstöfun býður upp á nokkur lykilatriði frá sjónarhóli stefnunnar.
Það undirstrikar þörfina fyrir stefnumótendur til að rannsaka tilteknar eignir og blokkir sem nú eru aðhyllast af ólöglegum aðilum og grípa til viðeigandi aðgerða. Meira um vert, það veitir tækifæri til að skipta út núverandi, almennu sjónarhorni á stafrænar eignir fyrir blæbrigðarfyllri, en móta stefnu frásagnir um glæpastarfsemi.
Case in point, in the ongoing discussion on use of cryptoassets in terror financing, it often gets missed that Hamas has in fact hætt að samþykkja Bitcoin donations, to protect its sponsors from being unveiled.
But most importantly, this shift of illicit finance away from Bitcoin, is the first ever documented case of major crime displacement in the world of cryptoassets. It sheds light on the fluid nature of Financial Crime as it adapts to the path of least resistance.
Sjónarhorn úr leikjafræði
Consequently, a game-theoretic lens (with the players being - product devs, regulators, good and bad actors) enables a holistic and nuanced view of the space. We can see that in such a setting, interplay of independent actions and perspectives, generates myriad scenarios as the system is too intertwined for any set of players to control outcomes only by themselves.
Leikfræðileg sýn á ólögleg fjármál útskýrir nauðsyn þess að stíga inn í glæpahugann til að spá fyrir um næstu skref og undirbúa sig í samræmi við það. Stefnumótun til að berjast gegn ólöglegu fjárstreymi er venjulega afturvirk þar sem slæmir leikarar gera fyrstu hreyfingarnar, sem síðan eru rannsakaðar sem nýjar áhættur í samræmi við reglugerðir um handverk. Hins vegar, með rými stafrænna eigna sem þróast með veldishraða, höfum við ekki þann munað að fylgja þessari öfugsnúnu nálgun (sem gerist að er normið við hönnun hefðbundinna fjármálareglugerða).
The ongoing wave of crime displacement away from Bitcoin, highlights the necessity to arm policymakers with predictive systems that forecast future patterns of illicit fund flows. Such an approach will vastly minimize response time to new threats.
Frumkvæði gegn glæpum
Lærdómur frá Bitcoin’s changing usage, can also help counter-crime professionals grasp distinct features of organized crime syndicates. Case in point, crime rings still reliant on Bitcoin would signify a lack of agility in leadership. Additionally, position on an ‘agility spectrum’ can help infer further actionable insights about any syndicate, such its level of resourcefulness and technical expertise. This can also aid law enforcement in sizing the unique effort required in combating each crime ring. Case in point, crime syndicates which pioneered the shift away from Bitcoin, and are (consequently) ahead of the curve, would be operating at a relatively higher level of ingenuity, while continuously adapting to slip through the cracks.
Lýkur Hugsun
The switch of financial crime away from Bitcoin, sheds light on the need of a more nuanced approach to curating apt and dynamic regulatory and policy frameworks for digital assets and blockchains. It also highlights the dangers of applying broad strokes to the entire spectrum of cryptofinance, when it comes to policy debates on criminal usage.
This is a guest post by Debanjan Chatterjee. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Tímarit.
Upprunaleg uppspretta: Bitcoin Tímarit