By Bitcoin מגזין - לפני חודשיים - זמן קריאה: 4 דקות
חופשי כמו בחופש אינו חופשי כמו בבירה
Bitcoiners Need The Guillotine
כפי שציין הכלכלן והפילוסוף הסקוטי דיוויד הום חיבור על טבע האדם, שום דבר שאנחנו יודעים על מה is נכון יכול להגיד לנו מה צריך להיות אמיתי ושום דבר שאנחנו לא יודעים על מה צריך להיות אמיתי יכול להגיד לנו מה is נָכוֹן. עולם העובדות האובייקטיביות והאמת המוסרית נפרדים לחלוטין. Hume קרא לזה ה חיפשתי בְּעָיָה והטיעון שלו שיש להפריד בין נימוק תיאורי ונורמטיבי ידוע בשם הגיליוטינה של הום.
הגיליוטינה של הום הוא philosophical razor – a rule of thumb for reasoning about the world. It is a way of cutting apart two lines of reasoning that become entangled when they intertwine. An argument where one side argues about what is true and the other side argues about what ought to be true is a useless argument. Those people are talking past each other.
Even more importantly, the guillotine is a tool for reducing bias in our thinking. Left unsupervised, our hopes can corrupt our beliefs – leading us to assume that which is true is good (naturalistic fallacy) and that which is good is true (wishful thinking). In the Bitcoin industry there are many who let their conviction about what Bitcoin צריך be distort their understanding of what Bitcoin is. They need to study הגיליוטינה.
ביזור לעולם לא יהיה זול
אמת אחת קשה אך פשוטה היא שהביזור האמיתי יקר מכדי להיות אוניברסלי. אם אתה מאמין בערך של ביזור קל להבין מדוע היית רוצה שהיא תהיה זמינה אוניברסלית. אבל אם אתה מבין איך ביזור עובד, קל גם להבין מדוע זה לעולם לא יתאפשר. המתמטיקה פשוט לא מאפשרת את זה.
ביזור הוא - לפי הגדרה - יקר יותר מאשר חלופה ריכוזית. כדי להיות מבוזרות, רשתות זקוקות ליותר עותקים של היסטוריית הרשת (ריבועים כחולים) ויותר חיבורים בין צמתים (חצים אדומים). תיאום רשת מרכזית הוא זול יותר וקל יותר לביצוע. בהתאם למטרת הרשת, ייתכן ששווה לשלם עבור ביזור - אבל היא לעולם לא תהיה האפשרות הזולה ביותר.
The expense of running a network is split between users and validators. Networks can either limit activity on the network (which makes transactions expensive because they are scarce) or they can demand more work from validators (which centralizes the network). Bitcoin keeps the cost of network validation low by limiting the block size – but that also by definition means transaction space is limited. Transaction fees on Bitcoin יקרים לפי עיצוב.
Adding more capacity to the network wouldn’t make it cheaper for individual users, anyway. That’s because Bitcoin’s transaction fees aren’t set by the network, they are set by users’ willingness to outbid each other in the blockspace auction. You can’t lower transaction fees by increasing capacity because increasing capacity doesn’t change anyone’s willingness to pay. Users don’t decide whether to pay for a transaction based on how full the blocks are, they decide based on how high the fees are.
בלוקים גדולים יותר יהיו חדשות טובות עבור הכורים (כי יהיה מקום ללקוחות משלמים יותר), אבל זה לא ישנה הרבה עבור המשתמשים - עמלות העסקאות יהיו בערך זהות. המונח הכלכלי המפואר לתוצאה המנוגדת לאינטואיציה הזו הוא פרדוקס ג'בונס.
Inventing new Layer2 technology won’t make transacting on Bitcoin any cheaper, either. Technology like Lightning, Liquid, Fedimint and Ark expand the power and flexibility of what Bitcoin transactions can do – but making transactions more useful does not make them cheaper, it makes them more valuable. More ways to use Bitcoin transactions means more demand for the limited available blockspace. We should expect Layer 2s to make L1 Bitcoin עסקות יקר יותר, לא זול יותר.
That’s ok, because Bitcoin is not supposed to be cheap. It’s supposed to be Free.
חופשי כמו בחופש
The lure of cheap decentralized transactions is strong. It was the heart of the מלחמות בלוק סייז and it is the central value proposition of most altcoin networks today. It’s also the driving force behind the widespread but misplaced belief that the Lightning network will allow Bitcoin scale to universal adoption. The reality is more nuanced: Lightning lowers the cost of using Bitcoin. That’s not the same thing as making Bitcoin cheap to use.
The truth is that Lightning channels require Bitcoin עסקאות ו Bitcoin transactions will inevitably be expensive. Bitcoin confirms ~0.4M transactions/day. That’s one transaction/person every ~55 years, assuming no one is born or dies while waiting. The long term price of a bitcoin transaction is difficult to predict, but it isn’t difficult to predict they will be rare: either because most people can’t afford them or because most people don’t want them in the first place.
There are proposals to make channel management cheaper (e.g. מפעלי ערוצים) but since every proposal ultimately depends on some on-chain anchor transaction, every channel will need to be purchased/leased somehow from someone who can afford the original transaction. Anthony Towns did some interesting analysis and estimated that there was room for approximately ~50,000 entities to transact directly on-chain. Everyone else would need to rent custodial services from one of those on-chain entities. You can use a copy of this spreadsheet to tweak the assumptions and run your own estimates.
Even if we ignore opening/closing costs entirely, channels themselves are not cost-free to maintain. Users need an online presence to receive payments / supervise their counterparties for misbehavior. They need to either perfectly balance their sent/received payments or periodically pay a liquidity provider to rebalance their channels. Most importantly, any bitcoin being used to create Lightning channel capacity is necessarily online and not in cold storage.
The marginal cost of individual Lightning transactions is very small, but the total cost of creating, using and maintaining a Lightning channel is actually quite high — because it is denominated in bitcoin ו bitcoin is the scarcest resource in history. Telling retail users to open Lightning channels to make cheap transactions is like telling them to launch their own satellites for cheaper mobile internet.
To be clear, I am a believer in the value of the Lightning Network – I just don’t think it will bank the unbanked. The Lightning Network makes Bitcoin transactions more powerful, not cheaper. Payment channels will only make sense for people who make enough payments to justify paying to streamline them. For most people even owning a single on-chain UTXO will be a privilege of significant luxury. I’m not trying to defend that outcome as טוב. זה פשוט. זה קיים בצד השני של הגיליוטינה של הום.
Bitcoin Is For Saving, Not For Spending
The enormous size and continued growth of the stablecoin market is proof there is plenty of demand for low-cost, disintermediated retail payments. But Bitcoin is not a panacea – just because low-cost payments are useful does not mean that Bitcoin is a useful way to make low-cost payments. Bitcoin is not designed to be cheap – it is designed to be durable. Those aren’t the same goals and they probably won’t be achieved by the same system.
Even in a world where Bitcoin transactions were somehow cost free we should עוד expect stablecoins to dominate payments. Why would anyone who thinks bitcoin is precious want to spend it? Why would anyone who doesn’t think bitcoin is precious have any to spend? Bitcoin is emergency money, not convenience money. No one should be spending it on coffee.
Decentralized networks do not make good retail payment tools – they’re expensive, slow and unforgiving. Using Bitcoin to make a retail purchase is like driving to the mall in a M4 Sherman tank. It might be מגניב, אבל זה לא מעשי - וזה לעולם לא יהיה נורמלי.
This is a guest post by knifefight. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin מגזין.
מקור מקורי: Bitcoin מגזין