By Bitcoin Magazine - 3개월 전 - 읽는 시간: 3분
금융 범죄의 게임 이론: 정책 시사점 Bitcoin
Significant shifts are underway in the ecosystem of illicit actors using cryptocurrency. According to a 2023 신고 by TRM Labs, Bitcoin is no longer the asset of choice for criminals.
보고서에는 “The multi-chain era has had a sweeping impact on the distribution of illicit crypto volume as a whole, where Bitcoin’s share plummeted from 97% in 2016 to 19% in 2022. In 2016, two thirds of crypto hack volume was on Bitcoin; in 2022, it accounted for just under 3%, with Ethereum (68%) and Binance Smart Chain (19%) dominating the field. And while Bitcoin was the exclusive currency for terrorist financing in 2016, by 2022 it was all but replaced by assets on the TRON blockchain, 92%. "
변화의 파급효과
Clearly, this turns the adage of Bitcoin being synonymous with criminal activity, on its head.
처음부터 Bitcoin has functioned as a Schelling Point due to its network effect, market dominance and liquidity, making it a natural choice in cryptofinance.
(게임 이론 용어에서 Schelling Point는 여러 당사자가 직접적인 의사 소통 없이 결정을 내려야 하는 상황에서 자연스러운 솔루션입니다. 이러한 점은 직관적으로 명백하며 종종 공유된 기대나 상식에 의존합니다.)
그러나 이제는 다른 수렴 지점을 선택하는 악의적인 행위자들과 함께 균형이 지속적으로 분리되는 것으로 보입니다.
정책 시사점
이러한 움직임은 정책 관점에서 몇 가지 중요한 교훈을 제공합니다.
이는 정책 입안자들이 현재 불법 행위자들이 선호하는 특정 자산과 블록체인을 면밀히 연구하고 적절한 조치를 취해야 할 필요성을 강조합니다. 더 중요한 것은 디지털 자산에 대한 현재의 일반적인 관점을 보다 미묘한 관점으로 대체하는 동시에 범죄 사용에 대한 정책 서술을 형성할 수 있는 기회를 제공한다는 것입니다.
Case in point, in the ongoing discussion on use of cryptoassets in terror financing, it often gets missed that Hamas has in fact 수락 중지 Bitcoin donations, to protect its sponsors from being unveiled.
But most importantly, this shift of illicit finance away from Bitcoin, is the first ever documented case of major crime displacement in the world of cryptoassets. It sheds light on the fluid nature of Financial Crime as it adapts to the path of least resistance.
게임 이론의 관점
Consequently, a game-theoretic lens (with the players being - product devs, regulators, good and bad actors) enables a holistic and nuanced view of the space. We can see that in such a setting, interplay of independent actions and perspectives, generates myriad scenarios as the system is too intertwined for any set of players to control outcomes only by themselves.
불법 금융에 대한 게임이론적 관점은 다음 단계를 예측하고 그에 따라 준비하기 위해 범죄의 마음 속으로 들어가야 할 필요성을 설명합니다. 불법 자금 흐름을 방지하기 위한 정책 수립은 일반적으로 악의적인 행위자가 처음 몇 가지 조치를 취하는 방식으로 소급 적용되며, 이러한 조치는 그에 따라 새로운 위험으로 연구되어 규정을 마련합니다. 그러나 디지털 자산의 공간이 기하급수적인 속도로 발전함에 따라 우리는 이러한 두더지 잡기 접근 방식(기존 금융 규정 설계의 표준이 됨)을 따를 여유가 없습니다.
The ongoing wave of crime displacement away from Bitcoin, highlights the necessity to arm policymakers with predictive systems that forecast future patterns of illicit fund flows. Such an approach will vastly minimize response time to new threats.
범죄 대응 활동
교훈 Bitcoin’s changing usage, can also help counter-crime professionals grasp distinct features of organized crime syndicates. Case in point, crime rings still reliant on Bitcoin would signify a lack of agility in leadership. Additionally, position on an ‘agility spectrum’ can help infer further actionable insights about any syndicate, such its level of resourcefulness and technical expertise. This can also aid law enforcement in sizing the unique effort required in combating each crime ring. Case in point, crime syndicates which pioneered the shift away from Bitcoin, and are (consequently) ahead of the curve, would be operating at a relatively higher level of ingenuity, while continuously adapting to slip through the cracks.
생각을 결론
The switch of financial crime away from Bitcoin, sheds light on the need of a more nuanced approach to curating apt and dynamic regulatory and policy frameworks for digital assets and blockchains. It also highlights the dangers of applying broad strokes to the entire spectrum of cryptofinance, when it comes to policy debates on criminal usage.
This is a guest post by Debanjan Chatterjee. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin 매거진.