Na NewsBTC - 1 tau ki muri - Wā Pānui: 4 meneti
Whakarāpopototanga o te Takahanga Contagion I kawea mai i runga i te maakete pea
Are we in a bear market? Opinions vary, but it certainly feels like one. Markets across the board and across the world are in the red, and the bitcoin and crypto ones are no exception. If you’ve been paying attention, you know how all of this happened, but a refresher course wouldn’t hurt. Using ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Monthly report as a guide, let’s go through the tragic sequence of events and evaluate the bitcoin market as it stands.
E ai ki a ARK, i penei te huarahi ki te maakete pea:
"I timata mai i te hinganga o Terra i te timatanga o Haratua, ka horapa atu te mate ki nga kaituku moni crypto nui tae atu ki a Blockfi, Celsius, Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, e whai waahi ana ki te kore utu o te putea taiapa rongonui, Three Arrows Capital (3AC). Mai i te paheketanga o Terra, kua heke te katoa o te maakete o te maakete crypto ~ $640 piriona.
Nevertheless, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. “Promisingly, however, recent fallout (Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, Finblox) appears lower in magnitude compared to Terra, Celsius, and 3AC.” That doesn’t mean the end of the bear market is near, nor that capitulation is already over. Especially if the Mt. Gox victims receive the rumored 150K BTC.
First, let’s follow ARK as they analyze two of the main players in this drama. Then, let’s check the stats of the bitcoin market to see if we can find signs and clues that point out to the end of the capitulation stage. SPOILER ALERT: The jury is still out on that one. Some signs point to an early end, others to further downside. Aren’t bear markets fun?
Celsius And The Death SpiralKa hinga a Terra, ka wiri te whenua. I hokona e te Luna Foundation Guard tata katoa o ratou rahui 80K BTC e ngana ana ki te tiaki i te titi UST ki te taara. Ko tenei huihuinga pea te kaupapa mo te maakete pea. Ko te mea kino i tae mai, ahakoa. He maha nga umanga whakaute i mua i kitea ki a Terra na roto i tana kawa o Anchor, a, na te hinganga o te UST i mate katoa ratou ki roto i te mate e haere tonu ana.
According to ARK, “Celsius froze withdrawals on June 12th in response to significant outflows. Its DeFi debt outstanding is $631 million but the magnitude of its nonDeFi exposure is unclear.” There was still hope for its clients, as the company paid several loans. However, Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, leaving them all high and dry.
What really happens to the coins you deposit to reputable lending platforms. pic.twitter.com/RQh7jfrrNZ
— softsimon (@softsimon_) July 13, 2022
Ko te Tumuaki Kaihokohoko i Choise.com, Andrey Diyakonov, i tātari i te ahuatanga mo NewsBTC:
"Hei titiro ki nga ahuatanga, me huri ke, me te patai, he aha te nui o nga mahi utu tata i runga i nga maakete i awehia e nga mahi a Celsius? Ko nga mea e haere ana ka haere tonu mai. He tino whakapouri i runga i nga purongo pono ko nga tangohanga o Celsius tetahi o nga mea i tuku te UST me Terra ki raro i te rua rapeti kia kitea kei hea te raro.
Our team covered that particular claim and the company’s response.
Three Arrows Capital And The Bear MarketNa, ko "Three Arrows Capital (3AC), he putea taiepa crypto e kiia ana ko te whakahaere i te $18 piriona i tona tihi, he ahua korekore i muri i te nui o te utu." Koia te kii a ARK, e kii ana ano, "Te ahua nei, i kaha ake a 3AC ki te ngana ki te whakaora i nga mate. I roto i ana nama ko nga kaitakaro nui i roto i te umanga penei i a Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager, me FTX.
Ko enei kamupene katoa engari ko te FTX te ahua kei te tata ki te ngaro.
BTC price chart for 07/15/2022 on Velocity | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com Is The Bear Market Just Beginning Or About To End?Is the bottom in? Opinions vary. In a section titled “Market Contagion Sets Bitcoin Into Capitulation,” ARK analyzes all of the indicators and can’t reach a final conclusion. The numbers are extremely interesting, though.
“Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general cost basis of the market (realized price), the cost bases of long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and its 2017 peak.”Ko tenei "e tohu ana i nga ahuatanga tino nui rawa atu," he tohu pai tenei. Heoi…
"I nga korero o mua, ka puta nga papa o te ao ina neke ake te MVRV o nga kaipupuri mo te wa poto i te MVRV o nga kaipupuri mo te wa roa. Kare ano i tutuki taua ahuatanga, e kii ana ka kaha ake te heke.Ko te "tikanga kaore ano kia tutuki," engari kua tata. Tino tata.
"I tenei marama, ko te 45% noa iho te hua o nga kaikeri i tera mo nga marama tekau ma rua kua pahure ake nei, ka takahi i te paepae e hono ana ki nga papa o te maakete."Miners who didn’t practice proper risk management have been selling at the present low levels. Miners who know what they’re doing will keep holding until we come out of the bear market. The question is, how many companies are in the first group and haven’t sold just yet?
“Net realized losses in bitcoin recently reached a 2-year low, breaching 0.5% for only the fourth time since 2013.”I nga wa o mua, e kii ana tenei kua mutu te whakaheke. Koia ranei?
"Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss has hit a 3-year low, highlighting that its current market value is nearly 17% lower than that of its aggregate cost basis. Historically, global bottoms have formed when losses hit 25%+.”Mena ka eke tatou ki te 25%, ko te tikanga he roa tonu te huarahi.
Ko te maakete pea ka timata, ka mutu ranei? Ko nga raraunga kaore i te marama. Engari ko te ahua kua tata ki te mutunga o te tuku, koinei te huarahi tuatahi ki te huarahi tika.
Featured Image by Marc-Olivier Jodoin on Unsplash | Charts by TradingViewKuputuhi taketake: NewsBTC