By Bitcoin.com - 1 tahun yang lalu - Masa Membaca: 2 minit
Ahli Strategi Komoditi Mike McGlone Meramalkan Kemelesetan sebagai Pemangkin Utama Kenaikan Emas Melebihi $2,000
This week, Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone shared his March outlook and noted that the “top catalyst” that could push gold above the $2,000-per-ounce range is a recession. McGlone further explained in an update about bitcoin and the Nasdaq that a key ingredient to force the U.S. Federal Reserve to pivot its stance is “a sharp drop in the stock market.”
Mike McGlone Berkongsi Tinjauan Mac untuk Logam Berharga dan Matawang Kripto
Gold and silver prices were lower this past week, with gold close to dropping below the $1,800-per-ounce range and silver clinging just above the $20-per-ounce range. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization today is $1.08 trillion, a decrease of around 1.57% over the last day. Earlier this week, Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone shared his March predictions concerning assets like commodities, precious metals, equities, and bitcoin. Mengenai bitcoin, McGlone soalan sama ada perhimpunan baru-baru ini kosong atau pemulihan yang berkekalan.
The Bloomberg analyst noted that “cryptos have never faced a U.S. recession, Fed tightening, and the bitcoin 50-week moving average below the 200-week.” McGlone detailed that at some point, most risk assets will bottom, but with the U.S. central bank still in tightening mode, most markets have bounced. “Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average has never crossed below its 200-week level amid the Fed’s tightening, and the crypto has bounced to this line in the sand at about $25,000,” McGlone said. The macro strategist added:
Swift snap-backs are typical of bear markets and if bitcoin can sustain above $25,000, it would signal divergent strength vs. central-bank.
Mengenai emas, logam berharga mempunyai peluang yang baik untuk mencapai $2,000 seunit jika ekonomi AS jatuh ke dalam kemelesetan, McGlone berpendapat. "Potensi terbesar untuk penguncupan ekonomi daripada keluk hasil dalam kira-kira 30 tahun dan Rizab Persekutuan masih mengetatkan boleh membimbing kebanyakan logam lebih rendah dan emas lebih tinggi pada 2023," tulis ahli strategi itu. "Kemelesetan AS adalah pemangkin utama yang mungkin mendorong harga logam melebihi $2,000 seauns." Lebih-lebih lagi, kemungkinan kemelesetan kelihatan mungkin mengikut data McGlone.
"Berdasarkan kebarangkalian tertinggi kemelesetan daripada keluk Perbendaharaan tiga bulan hingga 10 tahun dalam pangkalan data kami sejak 1992," kata pakar strategi itu. "Faktor utama yang mungkin berbeza kali ini ialah pelonggaran daripada Fed yang biasa pasaran sehingga inflasi 2022." Tambahan pula, McGlone berpendapat bahawa lonjakan emas mungkin tidak berlaku sehingga Fed memutuskan untuk beralih kepada dasar pengetatan monetari. "Salah satu prestasi terbaik dalam tempoh 12 bulan, logam berharga mungkin menghidu pivot Fed akhirnya akibat kemelesetan," tinjauan Mac McGlone menyimpulkan.
Adakah anda fikir ekonomi AS akan merosot ke dalam kemelesetan, dan jika ya, apakah kesannya terhadap harga emas dan aset lain seperti mata wang kripto? Kongsi pendapat anda di bahagian komen di bawah.
Sumber asal: Bitcoin.com