The Old Standard: Why Gold Is Beating Bitcoin Dalam 2022

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Rabu, 27 Apr 2022 11:59 PTG

The Old Standard: Why Gold Is Beating Bitcoin Dalam 2022

Bitcoin continues to underperform as a general “risk-off” sentiment has investors driving toward gold as a safe haven asset.

Kebimbangan tentang perang Rusia-Ukraine berterusan. Inflasi AS bergelut pada paras tertinggi empat dekad dan kebimbangan kenaikan kadar Fed berlaku. Ketidaktentuan menjangkau ekonomi dunia kerana kemelesetan dijangka bukannya pemulihan. Pengarah urusan IMF Kristalina Georgieva menyebutnya "krisis di atas krisis."

“The war is a supply shock that reduces economic output and raises prices. Indeed, we forecast inflation will accelerate to 5.5 percent in advanced economies and to 9.3 percent in emerging European economies excluding Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. ” The IMF stated last week.

Reuters recently quoted Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann, who talked in a note about the factors that have “lent buoyancy to gold in recent days,” mentioning the “strong buying interest on the part of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) investors” and news about the Ukraine war.

"Rusia nampaknya sedang bersedia untuk melancarkan serangan besar di timur negara - yang menjana permintaan yang besar untuk emas sebagai tempat selamat," kata penganalisis itu.

Ini meringkaskan sentimen "risiko" pada masa ini. Seperti yang dijangkakan, ekuiti terjejas kerana pelabur menjual aset berisiko dan membeli aset yang berkorelasi negatif dengan pasaran tradisional. Oleh itu, ruang crypto sedang bergelut di samping pasaran saham de dan emas meningkat.

Data from Arcane Research’s latest weekly report notes that it has been a gloomy year for the “digital gold.” In the first three weeks of 2022, Bitcoin sank 25% and it is still down by 18% in the year despite its slight recovery.

Similarly, Nasdaq records a 19% decline in the year, having underperformed against bitcoin “by a small margin,” notes the report, adding that “This is surprising given that bitcoin has tended to follow Nasdaq, albeit with higher volatility.”

Kebimbangan umum terhadap ketidaktentuan geopolitik dan makroekonomi telah memberikan emas tumpuan aset selamat sekali lagi. Aset itu mengatasi semua indeks lain yang dilihat di bawah dengan keuntungan 4%.

Sementara itu, pasaran mata wang menunjukkan prestasi dengan "corak penghindaran risiko yang sama." Dolar telah membuktikan penguasaan "risiko" apabila Indeks Dolar AS (DXY) meningkat 7%. Yuan China telah terjejas berikutan kebimbangan mengenai dasar "sifar covid" negara itu –yang menimbulkan isu untuk rantaian bekalan global– dan ekonomi China yang semakin perlahan. Sebaliknya, pelabur telah berlari ke Dolar AS untuk keselamatan.

Bitcoin supporters usually refer to the coin as “digital gold” alleging it is a safe haven asset, and this narrative had held well while BTC had been “uncorrelated with most other major asset classes,” but the tide is shifting with the 2022 scenario as investors are rather placing the coin “into the risk-on basket”.

A previous Arcane Research report indicated that bitcoin’s 30 -day correlation with the Nasdaq is revisiting July 2020 highs while its correlation with gold has reached all-time lows.

A pseudonym traded noted that “As Bitcoin adoption goes on and more institutional investors enter the market, the correlation of BTC and stocks becomes more and more tight. That is a paradigm that the crypto world struggled to come to terms with in the past but is now more real than ever. A healthy stock market is good for Bitcoin"

Sementara itu, sentimen umum pedagang nampaknya menurun, dengan ramai yang mengatakan bahawa syiling itu boleh mencecah paras $30k tidak lama lagi.

Sumber asal: NewsBTC