Minn NewsBTC - 1 sena ilu - Ħin tal-Qari: 4 minuti
Sommarju Tal-Avveniment tal-Kontaġju Li Ġib Fis-Suq tal-Ors
Are we in a bear market? Opinions vary, but it certainly feels like one. Markets across the board and across the world are in the red, and the bitcoin and crypto ones are no exception. If you’ve been paying attention, you know how all of this happened, but a refresher course wouldn’t hurt. Using ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Monthly report as a guide, let’s go through the tragic sequence of events and evaluate the bitcoin market as it stands.
Skont ARK, it-triq lejn is-suq tal-ors marret hekk:
"Bidu bil-kollass ta 'Terra fil-bidu ta' Mejju, il-kontaġju nfirex lil selliefa kripto maġġuri inklużi Blockfi, Celsius, Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, li jikkontribwixxu għall-insolvenza tal-hedge fund li darba kien rispettat ħafna, Three Arrows Capital (3AC). Mill-kollass ta’ Terra, il-kapitalizzazzjoni tas-suq tal-kripto totali naqset ~ $640 biljun.
Nevertheless, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. “Promisingly, however, recent fallout (Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, Finblox) appears lower in magnitude compared to Terra, Celsius, and 3AC.” That doesn’t mean the end of the bear market is near, nor that capitulation is already over. Especially if the Mt. Gox victims receive the rumored 150K BTC.
First, let’s follow ARK as they analyze two of the main players in this drama. Then, let’s check the stats of the bitcoin market to see if we can find signs and clues that point out to the end of the capitulation stage. SPOILER ALERT: The jury is still out on that one. Some signs point to an early end, others to further downside. Aren’t bear markets fun?
Celsius And The Death SpiralMeta Terra waqgħet, l-art treshed. Il-Gwardja tal-Fondazzjoni Luna biegħet kważi r-riżerva kollha tagħhom ta '80K BTC tipprova tiddefendi l-involucro UST mad-dollaru. Dan l-avveniment seta' kien il-katalist għas-suq tal-ors. L-agħar kien għadu ġej, għalkemm. Diversi istituzzjonijiet li darba kienu rispettati kienu esposti ħafna għal Terra permezz tal-protokoll Anchor tagħha, u l-kollass tal-UST bagħathom kollha fi spirali tal-mewt li għadha għaddejja.
According to ARK, “Celsius froze withdrawals on June 12th in response to significant outflows. Its DeFi debt outstanding is $631 million but the magnitude of its nonDeFi exposure is unclear.” There was still hope for its clients, as the company paid several loans. However, Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, leaving them all high and dry.
What really happens to the coins you deposit to reputable lending platforms. pic.twitter.com/RQh7jfrrNZ
— softsimon (@softsimon_) July 13, 2022
L-Uffiċjal Kap Kummerċjali f'Choise.com, Andrey Diyakonov, analizza s-sitwazzjoni għal NewsBTC:
“Biex npoġġu l-affarijiet f’perspettiva, irridu ndawwruha ta’ taħt fuq, u nistaqsu, kemm mill-azzjoni reċenti tal-prezzijiet fis-swieq kienet influwenzata minn jew maħluqa għal kollox mill-azzjonijiet ta’ Celsius? Dak li jmur dejjem jiġi madwar. Huwa ħafna aktar ironiku meta wieħed iqis dawk ir-rapporti kredibbli li l-irtirar ta' Celsius kienu fost dawk li bagħtu l-pożizzjoni tal-UST u Terra 'l isfel fil-ħofra tal-fenek biex issir taf fejn hu l-qiegħ.”
Our team covered that particular claim and the company’s response.
Three Arrows Capital And The Bear MarketImbagħad, kien hemm "Three Arrows Capital (3AC), fond ta 'lqugħ kripto meqjus ħafna li huwa rrappurtat li jamministra $ 18-il biljun fl-aqwa tiegħu, jidher li huwa insolventi wara li ħa wisq ingranaġġ." Dak skont ARK, li jgħid ukoll, “Midher, 3AC ħadet ingranaġġ eċċessiv biex tipprova tirkupra t-telf. Il-kredituri tagħha kienu jinkludu atturi ewlenin fl-industrija bħal Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager u FTX.”
Dawk il-kumpaniji kollha ħlief FTX jidhru li qed jgħoddu sal-estinzjoni.
BTC price chart for 07/15/2022 on Velocity | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com Is The Bear Market Just Beginning Or About To End?Is the bottom in? Opinions vary. In a section titled “Market Contagion Sets Bitcoin Into Capitulation,” ARK analyzes all of the indicators and can’t reach a final conclusion. The numbers are extremely interesting, though.
“Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general cost basis of the market (realized price), the cost bases of long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and its 2017 peak.”Dan "jissuġġerixxi kundizzjonijiet ta 'bejgħ eċċessiv ħafna," li huwa sinjal kbir. Madankollu…
“Storikament, il-qiegħ globali jseħħ meta l-MVRV ta’ detenturi għal żmien qasir jaqbeż l-MVRV ta’ detenturi għal żmien twil. Dik il-kundizzjoni ma ġietx issodisfata, u dan jissuġġerixxi l-potenzjal għal aktar tnaqqis.”Il-"kundizzjoni ma ntlaħqitx," iżda hija qrib. Viċin ħafna.
"Dan ix-xahar, il-minaturi ġġeneraw dħul biss 45% minn dak għall-aħħar tnax-il xahar, u kisru limitu li normalment jikkorrelata mal-qiegħ tas-suq."Miners who didn’t practice proper risk management have been selling at the present low levels. Miners who know what they’re doing will keep holding until we come out of the bear market. The question is, how many companies are in the first group and haven’t sold just yet?
“Net realized losses in bitcoin recently reached a 2-year low, breaching 0.5% for only the fourth time since 2013.”Storikament, dan jissuġġerixxi li l-kapitulazzjoni spiċċat. Jew hu?
"Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss has hit a 3-year low, highlighting that its current market value is nearly 17% lower than that of its aggregate cost basis. Historically, global bottoms have formed when losses hit 25%+.”Jekk se nilħqu l-25%, dan ifisser li għad fadal ħafna xi jsir.
Is-suq tal-ors għadu qed jibda jew wasal biex jispiċċa? Id-dejta mhix ċara. Iżda l-kapitulazzjoni tidher li qed toqrob lejn it-tmiem tagħha, li jkun l-ewwel pass fid-direzzjoni t-tajba.
Featured Image by Marc-Olivier Jodoin on Unsplash | Charts by TradingViewSors oriġinali: NewsBTC