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O modelo HODL: Bitcoin A oferta ilíquida está ultrapassando a emissão
The HODL model hypothesizes that bitcoin has crossed an inflection point, with the asset's illiquid supply outpacing the rate of new supply issuance.
Artigo por A Raiz Racional com escrita complementada por Sam Rule.
Sumário
The “HODL model hypothesis” is that bitcoin has crossed a historic inflection point where the asset’s illiquid supply is outpacing the rate of new supply issuance. Future halvings with lower supply issuance will only exacerbate this divergence.
Illiquid supply as a percentage of circulating supply will grow in a parabolic fashion as bitcoin’s digital scarcity drives investor behavior towards store of value as the dominant use case. As a result, illiquid supply will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036.
Isenção de responsabilidade: Esta é uma hipótese de mercado e não um conselho de investimento; não deve ser tratado como tal.
O que é fornecimento ilíquido?
It’s essential to understand the liquidity profile of bitcoin’s circulating supply. Quantifying supply across different levels of liquidity helps us better understand market supply dynamics, investor sentiment and bitcointrajetória de preços.
Liquidity is quantified as the extent to which an entity spends their bitcoin. A HODLer that never sells has a liquidity value of 0 whereas someone who buys and sells bitcoin all the time has a value of 1. With this quantification, circulating supply can be broken down into three categories: highly liquid, liquid and illiquid supply.
Illiquid supply is defined as entities that hold over 75% of the bitcoin they take in. Highly-liquid supply is defined as entities that hold less than 25%. Liquid supply is in between.
Esta quantificação e análise de oferta ilíquida[1] foi desenvolvido por Rafael Schultze-Kraft, cofundador e CTO da Glassnode.
The below chart shows the history of illiquid supply and circulating supply growth highlighting the average bitcoin added per day across each halving cycle. Since the third halving, illiquid supply growth has been outpacing circulating supply growth for the first time in bitcoin’s history, adding 1,694 bitcoin per day compared to 902 bitcoin per day. Illiquid supply bitcoin per day growth has accelerated 61.48% into this third halving epoch relative to the second halving, reversing a historic macro trend of decelerating, positive illiquid supply growth.
Oferta ilíquida como porcentagem da oferta total
At the time of writing, illiquid supply accounts for 76.22% of all circulating supply totalling 14,452,208 bitcoin. This is the highest illiquid supply percentage of circulating supply since December 2017. After reaching a bottom in July 2019, bitcoin’s illiquid supply share has grown from 71.47%.
Mesmo durante bitcoin’s violent liquidations cascade and its 53.98% July 2021 drawdown from approximately $64,000 to below $30,000, illiquid supply share only fell to 74.49% from 76.01%. Over time, more of the circulating supply is finding its way into illiquid supply hands, i.e., investors who have shown that they are unlikely to part with the majority of their bitcoin.
Modelo HODL
Pouco trabalho foi feito para modelar como poderão ser os futuros impactos no mercado de uma crescente parcela da oferta ilíquida na oferta circulante. O modelo HODL pretende fazer isto utilizando uma equação logarítmica, dando-nos um ponto de inflexão onde o crescimento da oferta ilíquida começou a ultrapassar o crescimento das novas emissões. A equação é definida abaixo:
Os resultados do modelo e o gráfico abaixo mostram como poderá ser o futuro se quisermos que a percentagem de oferta ilíquida continue esta tendência. O ponto de inflexão do modelo ocorre na terceira metade, que se aproxima do mínimo histórico na percentagem de oferta ilíquida da oferta circulante. Após este ponto de inflexão, o modelo HODL adota uma abordagem conservadora para projetar o crescimento da oferta ilíquida e pretende atuar como um modelo mínimo.
By the next (or fourth) halving in 2024, the illiquid supply “floor” percentage will be 72.5% or 14.3 million bitcoin. By the sixth halving in 2032, illiquid supply “floor” percentage will be 77.5% or 16 million bitcoin.
O caso de um ponto de inflexão
As bitcoin’s block reward will fall from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC and 1.5625 BTC over the next two halvings, there will be a significant reduction in new supply issuance. Approximately 164,000 new bitcoin will be issued per year during our fourth halving period, and approximately 82,000 will be issued per year during our fifth. This will result in approximately 984,000 BTC new supply issued over the next two halvings (roughly eight years).
Em 2021, a oferta ilíquida aumentou 366,060 BTC. Em 2020, aumentou 837,430 BTC e 588,412 em 2019. Isto é calculado usando a diferença na oferta ilíquida em 31 de dezembro de cada ano em comparação com o ano anterior. Teríamos de experimentar uma grande mudança comportamental do mercado para ver a oferta ilíquida cair abaixo do declínio da emissão de novas ofertas durante a próxima década. Este tipo de mudança invalidaria o modelo.
A key reason for using the inflection point to model HODL behavior is because of the historical, exponential growth seen in long-term holder supply. Although long-term holder supply fluctuates significantly during cyclical tops and bottoms, the macro trend of growing long-term holder supply is evident over bitcoinvida.
Depois que uma moeda permanece parada por 155 dias ou aproximadamente cinco meses, torna-se estatisticamente improvável que ela seja gasta com base em dados anteriores. Análise de titulares de curto e longo prazo da Glasssnode[2]. This sets the threshold for long-term holder supply which has significant crossover with illiquid supply as both capture bitcoin HODLer behavior.
O gráfico abaixo mostra o ritmo a que a nova oferta entra em circulação (através da recompensa em bloco) e o ritmo a que a oferta em circulação se torna detentora de longo prazo e/ou oferta ilíquida. A caixa laranja destacada parece marcar o fundo de uma tendência de baixa de 10 anos. Embora saibamos que a nova oferta que entra em circulação continuará a diminuir ainda mais, parece surgir uma divergência no ponto de inflexão.
A oferta ilíquida se aproximará de 100%?
Com o Bitcoin’s primary use case being a store of value and the hard cap of 21 million, one could assume that illiquid supply will trend towards 100%. The HODL model projects that the entire supply of bitcoin will become illiquid by 2088 (the HODL model end point), but this is unrealistic as the 21 million bitcoin supply hard cap will be approached but never reached. By the seventh halving in 2036, the HODL model projects illiquid supply to reach 80%. The HODL model aims to be conserative in its estimates of illiquid supply share growth.
O modelo não faz quaisquer suposições sobre mudanças significativas no comportamento do mercado ou pontos de inflexão futuros no declínio da oferta ilíquida. À medida que a oferta ilíquida se aproxima de 100% da oferta circulante, não sabemos que pressões descendentes poderão reverter esta tendência de crescimento da oferta ilíquida.
One potential downward pressure is the growth of bitcoin’s use case as a medium of exchange, which could increase bitcoin’s supply liquidity profile. Likely a reason for a structural change in illiquid supply growth (or second inflection point) is a decrease in demand after hyperbitcoinization, when bitcoin absorbs most value in the world.
That said, illiquid supply can grow indefinitely as bitcoin is infinitely divisible. The Lightning Network allows for milli-satoshis to be sent while the smallest unit on-chain is only a satoshi. Even with dividing the supply that can be used for more liquid use cases down into smaller units, it’s still likely we see a potential second inflection point where illiquid supply growth slows down.
Impacto do modelo HODL
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin’s digital scarcity. Liquid and highly-liquid supply will tighten as illiquid supply grows, leaving less bitcoin available on the market to acquire or trade.
New waves of demand that enter the market to acquire this declining available supply will then lead to exponential price increases. Exponential price increases will incentivize that some illiquid supply transition to liquid and highly-liquid supply as HODLers take profit, but this impact will be negligible relative to the overall impact of illiquid supply growth during bitcoin’s monetization phase.
This can be seen by looking at significant profit-taking periods in bitcoin’s history where illiquid supply had fluctuations but continued to grow emphasizing investors' overall long-term preference and view of the asset. The short-term decline in the illiquid supply share during July 2021, before resuming its upward trajectory, is one of those periods.
O modelo de preço HODL
The HODL model predicts a conservative estimate of bitcoin’s available supply where illiquid supply follows the growth curve we saw above. Since illiquid supply share nears a low at the inflection point, a logical consequence would be for bitcoin price to follow an inverse s-curve pattern.
With tighter liquid and highly-liquid supply, we see high increases in price at the beginning of bitcoin’s lifetime and then moderate price increases near the third halving’s inflection point. As available supply tightens again, we should expect higher price increases to follow.
Para modelar esse comportamento podemos usar um inverso exponencial hiperbólico[3] modelo tangente.
Wicked Smart Bitcoin criou o Bitcoin Stock2Fomo Hyperbolic Model[4] to show a potential model of bitcoin’s price during a fiat hyperinflation scenario.
We build further upon this model below to show bitcoin’s digital scarcity as the HODL price model. But instead of using a symmetric s-curve, we utilize the HODL model to create an asymmetric s-curve following the projections of illiquid supply.
O modelo de preços não leva em conta a demanda futura
Fiat inflation and an increasing illiquid supply share of circulating supply assumptions are the driving forces that create an inverse s-curve pattern. However, one of the HODL price model’s shortcomings is that it assumes a constant flow of demand for bitcoin’s available liquid and highly liquid supply.
New demand will not be a smooth constant resulting in the future bitcoin price to oscillate above and below the model’s predicted value. The model aims to take a more conservative stance on bitcoin’s price history.
Ciclo de alongamento
O modelo de preços HODL aproveita o ponto de inflexão do modelo HODL em seu centro. O ponto de inflexão, ocorrido na terceira redução para metade em 2020, apoia uma mudança significativa na estrutura do mercado que pode contribuir para a ideia de prolongamento dos ciclos.
A abundância de oferta líquida e altamente líquida perto do ponto de inflexão (a parte mais plana da curva S) pode ser uma causa para a ação atual, relativa e lateral dos preços, em comparação com os ciclos anteriores.
Embora os ciclos de restrição da oferta líquida e altamente líquida possam novamente encurtar, talvez seja mais provável que o efeito decrescente dos ciclos de redução para metade seja menos impactado. Isto pode resultar em ciclos de expansão/recessão mais naturais, com duração variável com base em outros catalisadores e condições de mercado.
The model results and chart below show the inverse s-curve pattern following the HODL model’s hypothesis and illiquid supply projections. Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, the HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards. The HODL price model projects bitcoin price to reach $1,000,000 near the fifth halving around 2028.
Referências
https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-liquid-supply/https://insights.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_hyperbolic_functionshttps://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1492511360193900547Este é um post convidado de The Rational Root. As opiniões expressas são inteiramente próprias e não refletem necessariamente as da BTC Inc ou Bitcoin Magazine.
Fonte original: Bitcoin Magazine