By Bitcoin සඟරාව - මාස 5 කට පෙර - කියවීමේ වේලාව: විනාඩි 3 යි
සතෝෂිගේ වැරැද්ද
Satoshi Nakamoto is God and Bitcoin’s design is perfect. Or is it? There's one feature of the protocol that keeps bugging me: the Halvening (halving, whatever). I'm sure Naka thought this over. His first Bitcoin must have had an incremental reduction of the supply per block. But the final design, the one we know, cuts the block reward in half only after every 210,000 blocks (every four years). Obviously, this decision had a tremendous impact on price action, volatility, and adoption. Unfortunately, it’s not the best supply scheme. Let's explore.
හාල්වින්ග්ස්
Bitcoin, as we know it, has a supply schedule adhering to the following hard coded rule:
සැපයුමේ ගණිතමය සූත්‍රය අඩු වේ.ගණිතය නොවන අය සඳහා, මෙය දියත් කිරීමේ සිට අනාගතයේ අඩක් 32 දක්වා බ්ලොක් එකකට සපයන ලද සියලුම නව කාසිවල එකතුව (Σ) වේ. පළමු වාරණ 210,000 තුළ (i=0) වාරණ ත්‍යාගය 50 (50/(20) = 50/1 = 50). පළමු භාගය පහත දැක්වෙන්නේ (i=1) සහ ඊළඟ වාරණ 210,000 සඳහා වාරණ විපාකය අඩකින් කපා ඇත (50/21 = 50/2 = 25). වසර 32 පමණ වන විට 2140 වන අර්ධ චක්‍රය සම්පූර්ණ වන තෙක් මෙය දිගටම පවතින අතර මුළු සැපයුම ප්‍රායෝගිකව කාසි මිලියන 21 දක්වා වැඩි වේ.
This choice of supply schedule has consequences. Because the supply is suddenly reduced by 50% overnight, it shocks the market. As demand remains unchanged, the price adjusts upward, as Bitcoin is now twice as scarce. The rapid price surge leads to a hype cycle, drawing media attention, attracting new adopters.
The halvening is Bitcoin's in-built media campaign. But it has a cost. Because the price is so volatile, the price surges into a blow-off top, and the rollercoaster dives back into the abyss. This makes Bitcoin not ideal for most where drawdowns of 75-85% are normal.
Bitcoin's main feature is its වටිනාකමේ ගබඩාව (SoV) function, making it really different from other innovations. If you FOMOed in at the top, the store of value function will only be realized four years later. The only way a new hodler will hold on to their Bitcoin is when they thoroughly understand the protocol, trust the code, and know the price will recover and take off after the next halving. This is a level of abstraction and conviction most prospective adopters don't have. Negative short term price movements heavily detract from its SoV proposition. It takes months to properly understand Bitcoin (and fiat).
කෙසේ වෙතත්, වෙනත් තාක්ෂණයන් සමඟ, පළමු භාවිතයෙන් පසු ප්රතිලාභ ඉතා පැහැදිලිය. රූපවාහිනිය, දුරකථන, විද්‍යුත් තැපෑල, මයික්‍රෝවේව් යනු පළමු මිනිත්තු කිහිපය තුළ වටිනාකම වටහා ගන්නා නවෝත්පාදන සඳහා විශිෂ්ට උදාහරණ වේ.
To stress the impact of perception, look for instance at the adoption of the color TV versus the computer. Television, though earlier, is steeper. Because its value was immediately experienced. The computer was a far more obscure device. So, there are exceptions in the chart countering the trend. It's important to ask why. Bitcoin can be an outlier too! Value perception plays a large role in the steepness of each individual curve. It’s one of the main drivers of technology diffusion according to Everett Rogers who first studied these curves. This renders adoption narratives like “It’s like the Internet in 1994,” or “innovation adoption curves are getting steeper over time,” less convincing.
එබැවින්, ප්‍රශ්නය: වත්මන් වසර 4 සැපයුම් කාලසටහන වඩාත් සුදුසුද?
වර්ධක සැපයුම අඩු කිරීම
විකල්පය සරලයි: ISR. අඩක් නැත, නමුත් සෑම වාරණයකටම වාරණ විපාකයේ සුළු අඩුවීමක් ඇත. ඉතින් block 0 එකේ BTC 50ක් තියේවි. බ්ලොක් 1 හි 49.9999, ආදිය ඇත. රේඛීය ශ්‍රිතයක් සුදුසු නොවේ, නමුත් වෙනත් විකල්ප තිබේ.
The ISR schedule won't prevent volatility, but it would surely decrease it, as there are no more pent up shocks to the market. Such a change will turn Bitcoin into a more stable asset, gradually increasing its price over time.
Would the media hype and attention be reduced, then? Possibly. But how many more people would have stayed for the ride? Where’s the optimum point between these two schedules? It’s imaginable that ISR could have improved adoption. The halving cycle might largely obfuscate Bitcoin’s perceived value.
In the future, when we can test Bitcoin out on other planets, or spin up another simulation, we’ll run this experiment. I expect the halving is not the optimal design. Satoshi has made a mistake...in retrospect.
මෙය ආගන්තුක සටහනකි Bitcoin ග්රැෆිටි. ප්රකාශිත අදහස් සම්පූර්ණයෙන්ම ඔවුන්ගේම වන අතර BTC Inc හෝ ඒවා අනිවාර්යයෙන්ම පිළිබිඹු නොකරයි Bitcoin සඟරාව.
මුල් මූලාශ්රය: Bitcoin සඟරාව