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Opätovná návšteva Dorseyho hyperinflačného Tweetu: Elon, Wood, Saylor, Balaji, Chip In
When the Square mastermind declared hyperinflation was coming to the US, the world shook. With a single tweet, Jack Dorsey lit a fire that keeps on burning. In that first article, NewsBTC compiled the first reactions to this dangerous idea. Then, we told you about Peter Schiff’s unimaginative response. Now, it’s time for the big guns. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood answered with her deflationary theory, and Elon Musk, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, and notorious financial podcaster Preston Pysh answered.
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Okrem toho podnikateľ a bývalý CTO Coinbase, Balaji Srinivasan, hodil do ohňa ďalšie polienka. Bol jedným z prvých respondentov, ktorý ponúkol odmenu za dizajn decentralizovanej palubnej dosky s infláciou. Okrem nich, komentátorka Wired Virginia Heffernanová poskytla odpoveď podobnú roku 1984 a časopis Reason jej odpovedal pohotovo.
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Hyperinflácia a teória deflácie Cathie WoodovejThis woman doesn’t mince words. “In 2008-09, when the Fed started quantitative easing, I thought that inflation would take off. I was wrong. Instead, velocity – the rate at which money turns over per year – declined, taking away its inflationary sting. Velocity still is falling.” Is she right? Isn’t purchasing power the real victim of the rampant money printing that all governments are engaging in?
In 2008-09, when the Fed started quantitative easing, I thought that inflation would take off. I was wrong. Instead, velocity – the rate at which money turns over per year – declined, taking away its inflationary sting. Velocity still is falling. https://t.co/tFaXSaCKqS
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021
Let’s read her whole theory before jumping to conclusions. According to Wood, “three sources of deflation will overcome the supply chain-induced inflation that is wreaking havoc on the global economy.” Those are:
1– “Artificial intelligence (AI) training costs, for example, are dropping 40-70% at an annual rate, a record-breaking deflationary force.”
Keď náklady a ceny klesnú, nasleduje rýchlosť a dezinflácia – ak nie deflácia. Ak spotrebitelia a podniky veria, že ceny v budúcnosti klesnú, počkajú s nákupom tovaru a služieb, čím stlačia rýchlosť peňazí nadol.
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021
2.- ”Creative destruction, thanks to disruptive innovation. They have not invested enough in innovation and probably will be forced to service their debts by selling increasingly obsolete goods at discounts: deflation.”
Využili svoje súvahy na výplatu dividend a spätné odkúpenie akcií, čím „vyrobili“ zisk na akciu. Neinvestovali dostatočne do inovácií a pravdepodobne budú nútení splácať svoje dlhy predajom čoraz zastaranejšieho tovaru za zľavy: deflácia.
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021
3.- “Businesses shut down and were caught flat-footed as goods consumption took off during the coronavirus crisis, they still are scrambling to catch up, probably double- and triple-ordering beyond their needs.” + “As a result, once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind.”
V dôsledku toho, keď pominie dovolenková sezóna a spoločnosti budú čeliť nadmerným zásobám, ceny by sa mali znížiť. Ceny niektorých komodít – reziva a železnej rudy – už klesli o 50 %, jedným z dôvodov sú čínske represie. Cena ropy je odľahlá a psychologicky dôležitá.
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021
She ends her Twitter thread with an unironical “Truth always wins!” Well, Cathy, the truth is that governments everywhere are printing money non-stop. They’re literally inflating the monetary supply. We’re not talking hyperinflation yet, but still…
V každom prípade pozvime na čipovanie aj ďalšie známe osobnosti.
Elon, Saylor, Pysh a Balaji reagujú na drevoBitcoin-denier Elon Musk provides a practical answer, “I don’t know about long-term, but short-term we are seeing strong inflationary pressure.” Wood’s theory has some teeth to it, but there’s no denying that the prices are rising. And that the money printer goes brrrrrrrr. Musk also links to this satirical article. No mention of hyperinflation here.
Then, it’s time for Bitcoin maximalist extraordinaire Michael Saylor. “Inflation is a vector, and it is clearly evident in an array of products, services, & assets not currently measured by CPI or PCE. Bitcoin is the most practical solution for a consumer, investor, or corporation seeking inflation protection over the long term.” Inflation is clearly evident and that’s that. No mention of hyperinflation either.
Inflation is a vector, and it is clearly evident in an array of products, services, & assets not currently measured by CPI or PCE. #Bitcoin je najpraktickejším riešením pre spotrebiteľa, investora alebo korporáciu, ktorá hľadá dlhodobú ochranu pred infláciou.
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 26, 2021
Graf cien BTC pre 11/03/2021 na Gemini | Zdroj: BTC/USD na TradingView.comInvestor and podcaster Preston Pysh goes even further, “That’s because all the debasement keeps nesting itself into the cap rates of anything equity based AND the prices of Fixed Income. It should all make total sense when the market they are manipulating IS the fixed income market.” Market manipulation. Total control of the data. Those are factors to consider.
Je to preto, že všetko znehodnocovanie sa neustále zahniezdi do stropných sadzieb všetkého založeného na majetku A do cien s pevným príjmom. Všetko by to malo dávať úplný zmysel, keď trh, ktorým manipulujú, JE trh s pevným príjmom.
— Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) October 26, 2021
Contributing to the conversation for the second time, Balajis plays peacemaker and says that both Dorsey and Wood are “right in different ways.” According to him, “Everything technology disrupts will see prices fall. Everything the state subsidizes will see prices rise.” That’s because “The state actively prevents automation in the sectors it controls.” So, the current scenario is “a race between technological hyperdeflation & state-caused inflation, possibly hyperinflation.”
Both @jack and @CathieDWood are right in different ways.
Everything technology disrupts will see prices fall. Everything the state subsidizes will see prices rise. Like the graph below, but even more extreme. https://t.co/KDIGBH9iZp pic.twitter.com/JYTlw4xF55
— Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis) October 25, 2021
Prejavenie hyperinflácie do existencieThere’s an old wives’ tale that says that by only mentioning hyperinflation, one could generate a chain of unfortunate events that end up causing it. Cathie Wood brushed on the subject by saying “If consumers and businesses believe that prices will fall in the future, they will wait to buy goods and services, pushing the velocity of money down.”
Taking it to another level, Wired columnist Virginia Heffernan brings 1984 vibes to the discussion. “Like “divorce” in a marriage this word Jack tweeted should not be uttered unless you’re trying to bring it into being. No one shd take investment advice from someone who sees himself as making markets.”
Like “divorce” in a marriage this word @jack tweeted should not be uttered unless you’re trying to bring it into being.
Nikto neberie investičné rady od niekoho, kto sa považuje za tvorcu trhov.
How insanely reckless to tweet this. Immoral. Jack, ban thyself. pic.twitter.com/fl7CWRXdN8
— Virginia Heffernan (@page88) October 24, 2021
Mohol by Jack Dorsey priniesť hyperinfláciu prostredníctvom tweetu? Možno. Nie je však hlavným podozrivým neúprosné tlačenie peňazí, do ktorých sa vlády zapájajú? Zdá sa, že je to určujúci faktor, pretože presne to znamená inflácia. Neexistujú dva spôsoby, vlády nafukujú peňažnú zásobu neustálym tlačením peňazí. A tweet Jacka Dorseyho je len komentárom k situácii.
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In any case, Reason magazine has another interpretation for Heffernan’s bizarre behavior. Apparently, historically speaking, when hyperinflation happens the next move by the money printers is to prohibit people from even mentioning hyperinflation.
„Je pravda, že očakávania ovplyvňujú správanie a tým aj ceny. Ale každý brouhaha Dorsey, ktorý by mohol rozprúdiť svoje monetárne sračky, očividne bledne v porovnaní so silnými makroekonomickými faktormi – utrácanie a tlačenie bonusov, vysoké previsy dlhu, politika blokovania a súčasná situácia s dodávateľským reťazcom – aby sme vymenovali aspoň niektoré – ktoré sú skutočne čo vedie k „prechodnej“ inflácii, ktorú naši všeobecne uznávaní odborníci pripúšťajú.“
Napriek tomu sú USA ďaleko od hyperinflácie a dolár je stále svetovou rezervnou menou, čo im dáva voľnosť.
Featured Image by jggrz from Pixabay - Charts by TradingViewOriginálny zdroj: NewsBTC