The Old Standard: Why Gold Is Beating Bitcoin v 2022

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Streda, 27. apríla 2022, 11:59

The Old Standard: Why Gold Is Beating Bitcoin v 2022

Bitcoin continues to underperform as a general “risk-off” sentiment has investors driving toward gold as a safe haven asset.

Obavy z rusko-ukrajinskej vojny pokračujú. Inflácia v USA je na maxime za štyri desaťročia a prevládajú obavy zo zvýšenia sadzieb Fedu. Neistota sa rozširuje na svetovú ekonomiku, keďže sa namiesto oživenia očakáva recesia. Výkonná riaditeľka MMF Kristalina Georgieva to nazvala „krízou nad krízou“.

“The war is a supply shock that reduces economic output and raises prices. Indeed, we forecast inflation will accelerate to 5.5 percent in advanced economies and to 9.3 percent in emerging European economies excluding Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. ” The IMF stated last week.

Reuters recently quoted Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann, who talked in a note about the factors that have “lent buoyancy to gold in recent days,” mentioning the “strong buying interest on the part of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) investors” and news about the Ukraine war.

"Zdá sa, že Rusko sa pripravuje na spustenie veľkej ofenzívy na východe krajiny - čo vytvára značný dopyt po zlate ako bezpečnom prístave," povedal analytik.

Toto sumarizuje momentálny pocit „rizika“. Ako sa očakávalo, akcie trpia, keďže investori predávajú rizikové aktíva a nakupujú tie, ktoré negatívne korelujú s tradičným trhom. Kryptopriestor teda zápasí s akciovým trhom a zlato rastie.

Data from Arcane Research’s latest weekly report notes that it has been a gloomy year for the “digital gold.” In the first three weeks of 2022, Bitcoin sank 25% and it is still down by 18% in the year despite its slight recovery.

Similarly, Nasdaq records a 19% decline in the year, having underperformed against bitcoin “by a small margin,” notes the report, adding that “This is surprising given that bitcoin has tended to follow Nasdaq, albeit with higher volatility.”

Všeobecný strach z geopolitickej a makroekonomickej neistoty dal zlatu opäť do centra pozornosti bezpečné útočisko. Aktívum prekonalo všetky ostatné indexy uvedené nižšie so ziskom 4 %.

Medzitým menový trh funguje s „rovnakými vzormi znižovania rizika“. Dolár dokazuje svoju „rizikovú“ dominanciu, keďže index amerického dolára (DXY) vzrástol o 7 %. Čínsky jüan dostal úder kvôli obavám z politiky krajiny s „nulovým covidom“ – ktorá vytvára problémy pre globálny dodávateľský reťazec – a spomaľujúce sa čínske hospodárstvo. Na rozdiel od toho investori utekajú pre istotu k americkému doláru.

Bitcoin supporters usually refer to the coin as “digital gold” alleging it is a safe haven asset, and this narrative had held well while BTC had been “uncorrelated with most other major asset classes,” but the tide is shifting with the 2022 scenario as investors are rather placing the coin “into the risk-on basket”.

A previous Arcane Research report indicated that bitcoin’s 30 -day correlation with the Nasdaq is revisiting July 2020 highs while its correlation with gold has reached all-time lows.

A pseudonym traded noted that “As Bitcoin adoption goes on and more institutional investors enter the market, the correlation of BTC and stocks becomes more and more tight. That is a paradigm that the crypto world struggled to come to terms with in the past but is now more real than ever. A healthy stock market is good for Bitcoin. "

Medzitým sa zdá, že všeobecný sentiment obchodníkov je medvedí, pričom mnohí hovoria, že minca by mohla čoskoro dosiahnuť úroveň 30 XNUMX $.

Originálny zdroj: NewsBTC