By Bitcoin Revija - pred 1 letom - Čas branja: 3 minute
Je dno v za Bitcoin Cena?
After the September FOMC meeting, Bitcoin Magazine Pro recaps the medium-term thesis for bitcoin and how to think about the looming macro volatility.
Spodaj je izsek iz nedavne izdaje Bitcoin Revija Pro, Bitcoin Revije revij glasilo premium markets. Biti med prvimi, ki bodo prejeli te vpoglede in druge informacije v verigi bitcoin tržne analize naravnost v mapo »Prejeto«, naročite se zdaj.
Največja bolečina: Še vedno pred nami
The word of the day is pain. That was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s favorite go-to in the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. One simple economic release and subsequent press conference sent the market into a period of mild panic with rates soaring higher, volatility heating up and equities selling off with bitcoin following. The S&P 500 Index lost a critical support level of 3850, bitcoin was sent back to local lows of $18,100 and the 2-year Treasury went over 4.1%.
Celo pričakovano zvišanje za 75 bazičnih točk ni bilo dovolj, da bi se trgi spremenili, saj so dopolnilne informacije v napovedih Feda in Powellov govor dale več skrbi glede tveganih sredstev. Powell je večkrat ponovil, da zaradi rešitve problema inflacije prihaja več gospodarskih težav (izguba delovnih mest, upad stanovanjskega trga itd.). Navedel je pomanjkanje dezinflacije pri njihovem najljubšem ukrepu »core PCE« (izdatki za osebno potrošnjo) in ponovil svoj ostro govorjenje v Jackson Holeu, pri čemer je opozoril, da se ne bodo ustavili, dokler delo ne bo opravljeno.
Za tvegana sredstva je zdaj na voljo ali umreš z možnostmi, da ta teden opazimo takojšnjo okrepitev ali verjetno nadaljnje padanje vrednotenj in cen na vseh področjih.
Our thesis here at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, as long-term bull-biased bitcoin proponents, is that the macroeconomic headwinds are in the driver’s seat, and given the price action in global currency and bond markets, the ultimate panic moment has yet to arrive. We are open-minded and flexible to change that stance, but as objective market analysts, we see and report what is in front of us. More on this later.
Na verigi
Although on-chain cyclical metrics can prove useful for assessing long-term value buying (or selling) opportunities and Bitcoin’s economic behavior, we’ve highlighted less of them over the last few months as we felt they were less relevant to short-term price action compared to current macro headwinds.
Če pogledamo zgodovino bitcoin market cycles, when diving into on-chain data, one immediately notices the consistency in which the bitcoin price falls below its realized price (average cost basis of all bitcoin as per their last movement on-chain) during the depths of a bear market. In previous cycles, that’s not been a one-off event but rather one that also comes with duration. We’ve been emphasizing for months that this bear market can last longer than most expect and that the duration component is more painful than the percentage drawdown.
»Ker je povprečni imetnik pod vodo, je večina mejnih prodajalcev že prodala svoje deleže, in čeprav so možne nadaljnje slabe strani, udeleženci na trgu čutijo 'bolečino' v obliki daljšega časa, preživetega pod vodo, in ne v hitrem padanju cen, ki je značilno začetek medvedjega trga." - Kdaj se bo medvedji trg končal? 11. julij 2022
Dnevni menjalni tečaj BTC/USD je popolnoma nastavljen na mejo in glede na vse večje makroekonomske ovire so mejni prodajalci in verjetno še naprej prevladujejo nad mejnimi kupci, dokler ne pride do izrazite spremembe likvidnostnih pogojev.
Bolj pomanjšan pogled kaže, da ta dolgotrajen proces kapitulacije prenese kovance v močnejše in bolj kapitalizirane roke.
Bitcoin price weighted by the realized price shows that we are in bear territory but still have room below.For those that see this as the time to get long-term undervalued bitcoin, the realized market cap is an assuring chart which shows the log growth of bitcoin’s cost basis over time. The cost basis has only dropped a maximum of 24.07% from cycle highs and is currently down 12.71%. This is the chart which we think most “non-bitcoin” investors don’t grasp. Even in the “everything speculative” bubble, which bitcoin is a part of, the cost basis of the network is ever increasing or marginally declining despite the wild daily exchange rate volatility.
Stroškovna osnova je trenutno nižja le za 12.71 %.Izvorni vir: Bitcoin Revija