Why An Ongoing Bullish Bitcoin “Retest” Might Result In New Highs

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Čet, 19. avgust 2021 ob 8:39

Why An Ongoing Bullish Bitcoin “Retest” Might Result In New Highs

Bitcoin price is still well below its former record, but the top cryptocurrency by market cap at the time of this writing is making another attempt to reclaim lost support near all-time highs set earlier in the year.

Dosedanji "ponovni test" drži nad ključno raven, v primerjavi s preteklimi vrhovi na trgu kripto se tokrat skoraj zagotovo zdi drugačen. Če bo ponavljajoči se vzorec prinesel drugačne rezultate, je še treba videti, toda edinstven rezultat bi tokrat nakazal, da se bo zbolelo do novih vrhov.

According to Sir John Templeton, the most dangerous mindset in investing is assuming that “this time it’s different.” Markets are cyclical and price action often exhibits fractal-like patterns. Even Bitcoin itself appears to repeat in cycles every four years based on the built-in issuance mechanism called the halving.

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Kljub tej predvidljivosti se lahko razvoj cikla predstavi na edinstven način. Medvedji trg 2014–2015 je bil na primer globoka, zaokrožena struktura, ki je leta 2017 povzročila dramatičen dvig in vrh. Neuspešen ponovni preizkus je privedel do dodatnih nižjih višin in padajočega vzorca trikotnika, ki se je na koncu zlomil.

V 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from the most recent bear market bottom, starting a new cycle in cryptocurrencies. After topping out below the asset’s former all-time high the same year, the remaining resistance above led to another failed retest and sustained bearish phase.

Bitcoin has topped once again, but this time the subsequent retest appears to be holding which could lead to new highs ahead.

The lack of resistance during this phase of the cycle could result in a different outcome from the past two tops, despite Sir Templeton’s advice. Past retests also failed below the middle-line on the Bollinger Bands, which is a 20-week simple moving average on the below weekly chart.

Trenutni ponovni preizkus je prišel nad srednji Bollinger Band, ki se lahko sam po sebi učinkovito uporablja kot signal za nakup ali dolgotrajno nakupovanje.

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Note that during the last bull market, once Bitcoin price was able to hold and stay above the middle-SMA, the uptrend rarely took pause from that point on. It is also when the leading cryptocurrency by market cap blasted off into the final stages of the last bull market.

So, is this time really different? With no resistance above, reclaiming this level with a successful retest couldn’t possibly be more bullish for Bitcoin.

After a failure to move higher, often markets retest a range. If successful, prices might pass through the previous range. If unsuccessful, price finds a range below instead. With less resistance than past tops, the most recent #Bitcoin retest might be bullish. But BTC must hold. pic.twitter.com/0uznyPk5kC

- Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) 19. avgusta 2021

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