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Ali je to najboljše Bitcoin Indikator cene prav zdaj? Podrobnosti, ki jih morate vedeti
Following recent geopolitical events, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin prices has once again come under scrutiny by market analysts. Here’s a comprehensive dive into the relationship and its implications.
The Gold And Bitcoin Korelacija
After the recent Israel-Hamas war, gold experienced a rapid uptick in its price. This shift interestingly mirrored movements in the Bitcoin market, emphasizing a revived correlation between the two assets. Skew, a reputable market analyst, shared his insights on X (formerly Twitter), Opažam 11. oktobra, da je bila "korelacija precej ohlapno uporabna za obdobja BTC 35 dni +, kjer obstaja prekinitev cenovne povezave med obema trgoma."
However, only days later, on October 16, he observed a potential “re-correlation” as both Bitcoin followed the latest gold rally. Today, the statement stands stronger with Skew’s latest tweet, »Zdi se, da je korelacija med BTC in zlatom še vedno prisotna. Zlato bo morda vodilo do naslednje velike poteze za BTC.”
V njegov nedavni vpogledi shared in the Onramp Weekly Roundup, Bitcoin analyst Dylan LeClair emphasized the implications of the ongoing prodati v državnih obveznicah. Naraščajoči stroški za dolgoročno financiranje neposredno vplivajo na globalne stroške kapitala in ponujajo merilo vrednotenja za različna sredstva.
Še pomembneje pa je, da zakladniški trg podpira svetovni finančni ekosistem. Njegova trenutna nestabilnost bi lahko vplivala na cene premoženja in poslabšala že obstoječi dolžniški cikel, kar bi lahko ogrozilo javnofinančni položaj ZDA. Ta negotova država je v ostrem nasprotju s fiskalnimi ukrepi ameriške administracije, kar dokazujejo načrti, kot je "BELA HIŠA OČI ZA 100 MILIJARD $ UKRAJINE, IZRAELA IN MEJE Vprašuje", kar po LeClairju kaže na pomanjkanje fiskalnih omejitev.
Zlato, realni donosi in spreminjajoča se pokrajina
Zadeve še bolj zapletejo, Bill Dudley, nekdanji predsednik centralne banke Federal Reserve v New Yorku, je v svojem nedavnem prispevku za Bloomberg opozoril na verjetnost, da bo trenutni cikel kvantitativnega zaostrovanja (QT) trajal do konca leta 2025. Ta podaljšan QT bi lahko dolgoročno povečal obrestne mere in turbulence na trgu zakladnice tveganja. Če pa bi se na zakladniškem trgu pojavila resna disfunkcija, bi Federal Reserve morda ponovno razmislila o svoji poti QT.
Zanimivo je, da so po konfliktu med Rusijo in Ukrajino in kasnejši zaplembi ruskih rezerv G7, zlato in realni donosi pokazali atipično pozitivno korelacijo, kar je izpodbijalo njihovo zgodovinsko negativno razmerje.
In this evolving geopolitical landscape where even G7 sovereign debt isn’t immune to confiscation, traditional ‘safe assets’ are being reevaluated. This uncertainty combined with the not-so-safe “risk free” yield from treasuries has bolstered gold’s position (and price) as a counter-risk monetary asset and may push Bitcoin on a similar trajectory.
Glede na LeClair:
This repositioning, however, isn’t limited to gold alone. Bitcoin, with its unique advantages and growing liquidity profile, is on a similar trajectory, albeit still in the very early stages of its monetization with a $500b market cap.
Najboljši indikator cen BTC?
Under these current conditions, the price of gold may be a leading indicator for the price of Bitcoin, assuming that the correlation between the two assets continues. This would imply that Bitcoin is classified as a “safe haven” asset like gold by a majority of investors, rather than a “risk asset”.
However, this view is not shared by all. James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, pointed out that the Bitcoin market has shifted its focus after the ponaredek novice regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. He pripomnil da se zdi, da vlagatelji zdaj dajejo prednost odobritvi ETF pred makro pričakovanji, pri čemer dajejo manj poudarka dejanjem Federal Reserve.
Since the Coin Telegraph tweet mistake on a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval, Bitcoin prices have decoupled from December interest rate expectations – it seems like investors are solely focussed on the ETF approval now, and not what the FED does.
V času tiska oz. Bitcoin trgovan po 28,450 USD.
Izvorni vir: NoviceBTC