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Aotelega o le Fa'ama'i Fa'alavelave lea na aumaia i luga o le Maketi Bear
Are we in a bear market? Opinions vary, but it certainly feels like one. Markets across the board and across the world are in the red, and the bitcoin and crypto ones are no exception. If you’ve been paying attention, you know how all of this happened, but a refresher course wouldn’t hurt. Using ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Monthly report as a guide, let’s go through the tragic sequence of events and evaluate the bitcoin market as it stands.
E tusa ai ma le ARK, o le auala i le maketi urosa e pei o lenei:
"Amata i le pa'ū o Terra i le amataga o Me, na sosolo atu le faʻamaʻi i le aufaipisinisi crypto tetele e aofia ai Blockfi, Celsius, Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, ma saofagā i le le mafai ona totogiina o le faʻaputuga faʻapitoa e sili ona faʻaaloalogia, Three Arrows Capital (3AC). Talu mai le pa'ū o Terra, o le aofaʻi o mataitusi tetele o maketi crypto ua pa'ū ~ $640 piliona.
Nevertheless, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. “Promisingly, however, recent fallout (Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, Finblox) appears lower in magnitude compared to Terra, Celsius, and 3AC.” That doesn’t mean the end of the bear market is near, nor that capitulation is already over. Especially if the Mt. Gox victims receive the rumored 150K BTC.
First, let’s follow ARK as they analyze two of the main players in this drama. Then, let’s check the stats of the bitcoin market to see if we can find signs and clues that point out to the end of the capitulation stage. SPOILER ALERT: The jury is still out on that one. Some signs point to an early end, others to further downside. Aren’t bear markets fun?
Celsius And The Death SpiralIna ua pa'u Terra, sa gatete le eleele. Na fa'atau atu e le Luna Foundation Guard toetoe o latou fa'aagaga uma 80K BTC e taumafai e puipuia le pine UST i le tala. O lenei mea na tupu e mafai ona avea ma faʻalavelave mo le maketi urosa. Ae o le mea sili ona leaga o le a oʻo mai. O le tele o fa'alapotopotoga fa'aaloalogia na matua fa'aalia i Terra e ala i lana fa'aupuga o le Anchor, ma o le pa'u o le UST na mafua ai ona latou maua uma i se si'osi'omaga o le oti.
According to ARK, “Celsius froze withdrawals on June 12th in response to significant outflows. Its DeFi debt outstanding is $631 million but the magnitude of its nonDeFi exposure is unclear.” There was still hope for its clients, as the company paid several loans. However, Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, leaving them all high and dry.
What really happens to the coins you deposit to reputable lending platforms. pic.twitter.com/RQh7jfrrNZ
— softsimon (@softsimon_) July 13, 2022
O le Ofisa Sili Faapisinisi i Choise.com, Andrey Diyakonov, suʻesuʻeina le tulaga mo NewsBTC:
"Ina ia tuʻuina mea i se vaaiga mamao, e manaʻomia ona tatou faʻafefe i lalo, ma fesili, o le a le tele o gaioiga o tau talu ai nei i luga o maketi na aʻafia pe faia saʻo e gaioiga a Celsius? O mea e alu solo e sau lava. E sili atu le taufaaleaga pe a fua i na lipoti e talitonuina e faapea o Celsius faaui i tua o se tasi lea na auina atu ai le UST ma Terra i lalo o le lua lapiti e saili ai po o fea le pito i lalo.
Our team covered that particular claim and the company’s response.
Three Arrows Capital And The Bear MarketOna i ai lea o le "Three Arrows Capital (3AC), o se crypto hedge fund e sili ona lauiloa o loʻo lipotia mai o loʻo pulea le $ 18 piliona i lona pito i luga, e foliga mai e le mafai ona totogi pe a uma ona faʻaaogaina le tele o le leverage." E tusa ai ma le tala a le ARK, o ia foi na fai mai, "E foliga mai, na faʻaaogaina e 3AC le faʻaogaina tele e taumafai ai e toe faʻafoʻi tupe leiloa. O ana aitalafu na aofia ai taʻaloga tetele i le alamanuia e pei o Kenese, BlockFi, Voyager, ma FTX.
O na kamupani uma sei vagana ai FTX e foliga mai o loʻo faitau i lalo e faʻaumatia.
BTC price chart for 07/15/2022 on Velocity | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com Is The Bear Market Just Beginning Or About To End?Is the bottom in? Opinions vary. In a section titled “Market Contagion Sets Bitcoin Into Capitulation,” ARK analyzes all of the indicators and can’t reach a final conclusion. The numbers are extremely interesting, though.
“Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general cost basis of the market (realized price), the cost bases of long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and its 2017 peak.”O lenei mea "e faʻaalia ai tulaga sili atu ona faʻatau," o se faʻailoga sili. Peitai…
“I le tala faasolopito, o lalo ole lalolagi e tupu pe a sili atu le MVRV o tagata e umia taimi pupuu nai lo le MVRV o tagata umia umi. O lea tulaga e leʻi ausia, o loʻo taʻu mai ai le ono mafai ona sili atu le leaga. ”O le “tulaga e leʻi ausia,” ae ua lata mai. latalata tele.
"O le masina lenei, na maua ai e le au maina tupe maua na o le 45% o lena mea mo le sefululua masina talu ai, ua solia ai se tapulaa e masani ona fetaui ma lalo ole maketi."Miners who didn’t practice proper risk management have been selling at the present low levels. Miners who know what they’re doing will keep holding until we come out of the bear market. The question is, how many companies are in the first group and haven’t sold just yet?
“Net realized losses in bitcoin recently reached a 2-year low, breaching 0.5% for only the fourth time since 2013.”I tala fa'asolopito, o lo'o ta'u mai ai le fa'ato'a uma. Po o lea?
"Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss has hit a 3-year low, highlighting that its current market value is nearly 17% lower than that of its aggregate cost basis. Historically, global bottoms have formed when losses hit 25%+.”Afai o le a tatou oo i le 25%, o lona uiga e umi se taimi e alu ai.
O le maketi urosa na'o le amataga pe toeitiiti uma? O faʻamatalaga e le o manino. Ae foliga mai ua latalata le faaiuga, o le laasaga muamua lea i le itu saʻo.
Featured Image by Marc-Olivier Jodoin on Unsplash | Charts by TradingViewPunavai autu: NewsBTC