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Le Sili Lenei Bitcoin Fa'ailoga Tau I Le taimi Nei? Fa'amatalaga e Tatau Ona Iloa
Following recent geopolitical events, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin prices has once again come under scrutiny by market analysts. Here’s a comprehensive dive into the relationship and its implications.
The Gold And Bitcoin Faʻasalaga
After the recent Israel-Hamas war, gold experienced a rapid uptick in its price. This shift interestingly mirrored movements in the Bitcoin market, emphasizing a revived correlation between the two assets. Skew, a reputable market analyst, shared his insights on X (formerly Twitter), matauina i le aso 11 o Oketopa e faapea "o le faʻamaopoopoina ua matua le talafeagai i vaitaimi BTC o 35 aso + lea o loʻo i ai le tau motusia i le va o maketi uma e lua."
However, only days later, on October 16, he observed a potential “re-correlation” as both Bitcoin followed the latest gold rally. Today, the statement stands stronger with Skew’s latest tweet, “BTC & fa'amaopoopo auro o lo'o i ai pea e foliga mai. O auro e mafai ona taʻitaʻia le isi gaioiga tele mo le BTC.
Talu ai nei malamalamaaga shared in the Onramp Weekly Roundup, Bitcoin analyst Dylan LeClair emphasized the implications of the ongoing selloff in government bonds. Rising costs for long-term financing directly influence the global cost of capital, offering a valuation yardstick for various assets.
O le mea e sili atu ona taua, o le maketi o tupe e faʻavaeina le faʻaogaina o mea tau tupe a le lalolagi. O le le mautu o lo'o iai nei e ono fa'aoso ai tau o aseta ma fa'ateleina ai le ta'amilosaga o aitalafu o lo'o iai muamua, e ono lamatia ai le tulaga tau tupe a le US. O lenei tulaga mataʻutia e matuaʻi ese lava ma gaioiga tau tupe a le pulega a Amerika, e pei ona molimauina e fuafuaga e pei o le "WHITE HOUSE EYES $100 BILLION UKRAINE, ISRAEL AND BORDER ASK", o loʻo fautua mai ai le leai o se faʻatapulaʻaina o tupe, e tusa ai ma LeClair.
Auro, Fua Moni, Ma Le Fa'afanua Suiga
O isi mea faigata, o Bill Dudley, o le sa avea muamua ma peresitene o le Federal Reserve Bank o Niu Ioka, i lana tala lata mai i Bloomberg, na ia matauina ai le ono tulai mai o le taamilosaga o le quantitative tightening (QT) o loo i ai nei e faaauau pea seia oo i le faaiuga o le 2025. O lenei QT faaumiumi e mafai ona siitia ai se taimi umi. tului ma tulaga lamatia le vevesi o maketi tau tupe. Ae, afai e faʻaalia le faʻalavelave matuia i le maketi o tupe, e mafai e le Federal Reserve ona toe iloilo lona QT trajectory.
O le mea e malie ai, faʻasalalau le feteenaiga Rusia-Iukureini ma le faoa faamalosi o G7 faasao a Rusia, auro, ma fua moni ua faaalia ai se faamaopoopo lelei atypical, luitauina o latou sootaga le lelei talafaasolopito.
In this evolving geopolitical landscape where even G7 sovereign debt isn’t immune to confiscation, traditional ‘safe assets’ are being reevaluated. This uncertainty combined with the not-so-safe “risk free” yield from treasuries has bolstered gold’s position (and price) as a counter-risk monetary asset and may push Bitcoin on a similar trajectory.
Fai mai LeClair:
This repositioning, however, isn’t limited to gold alone. Bitcoin, with its unique advantages and growing liquidity profile, is on a similar trajectory, albeit still in the very early stages of its monetization with a $500b market cap.
Le BTC Tau Sili Fa'ailoga?
Under these current conditions, the price of gold may be a leading indicator for the price of Bitcoin, assuming that the correlation between the two assets continues. This would imply that Bitcoin is classified as a “safe haven” asset like gold by a majority of investors, rather than a “risk asset”.
However, this view is not shared by all. James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, pointed out that the Bitcoin market has shifted its focus after the tala fou regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. He fai mai e foliga mai o loʻo faʻamuamua e le aufaipisinisi le faʻatagaina o le ETF nai lo faʻamoemoega macro, ma faʻaitiitia ai le faamamafa i gaioiga a le Federal Reserve.
Since the Coin Telegraph tweet mistake on a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval, Bitcoin prices have decoupled from December interest rate expectations – it seems like investors are solely focussed on the ETF approval now, and not what the FED does.
I taimi lolomi, Bitcoin fa'atauina ile $28,450.
Punavai autu: NewsBTC