By Bitcoin Revista - 5 muaj më parë - Koha e leximit: 3 minuta
Gabimi i Satoshit
Satoshi Nakamoto is God and Bitcoin’s design is perfect. Or is it? There's one feature of the protocol that keeps bugging me: the Halvening (halving, whatever). I'm sure Naka thought this over. His first Bitcoin must have had an incremental reduction of the supply per block. But the final design, the one we know, cuts the block reward in half only after every 210,000 blocks (every four years). Obviously, this decision had a tremendous impact on price action, volatility, and adoption. Unfortunately, it’s not the best supply scheme. Let's explore.
Përgjysmime
Bitcoin, as we know it, has a supply schedule adhering to the following hard coded rule:
Formula matematikore e uljes së ofertës.Për jo-mathies, kjo është shuma (Σ) e të gjitha monedhave të reja të furnizuara për bllok nga lëshimi deri në 32 përgjysmime në të ardhmen. Gjatë 210,000 blloqeve të para (i=0) shpërblimi i bllokut ishte 50 (50/(20) = 50/1 = 50). Pason përgjysmimi i parë (i=1) dhe shpërblimi i bllokut për 210,000 blloqet e ardhshme pritet në gjysmë (50/21 = 50/2 = 25). Kjo vazhdon derisa të përfundojë cikli i 32-të i përgjysmimit rreth vitit 2140 dhe oferta totale arrin maksimumin në pothuajse 21 milionë monedha.
This choice of supply schedule has consequences. Because the supply is suddenly reduced by 50% overnight, it shocks the market. As demand remains unchanged, the price adjusts upward, as Bitcoin is now twice as scarce. The rapid price surge leads to a hype cycle, drawing media attention, attracting new adopters.
The halvening is Bitcoin's in-built media campaign. But it has a cost. Because the price is so volatile, the price surges into a blow-off top, and the rollercoaster dives back into the abyss. This makes Bitcoin not ideal for most where drawdowns of 75-85% are normal.
Bitcoin's main feature is its dyqani i vlerës (SoV) function, making it really different from other innovations. If you FOMOed in at the top, the store of value function will only be realized four years later. The only way a new hodler will hold on to their Bitcoin is when they thoroughly understand the protocol, trust the code, and know the price will recover and take off after the next halving. This is a level of abstraction and conviction most prospective adopters don't have. Negative short term price movements heavily detract from its SoV proposition. It takes months to properly understand Bitcoin (and fiat).
Megjithatë, me teknologjitë e tjera, përfitimet janë mjaft të qarta pas përdorimit të parë. TV, telefon, email, mikrovalë janë shembuj të shkëlqyer të inovacioneve ku vlera perceptohet brenda minutave të para.
To stress the impact of perception, look for instance at the adoption of the color TV versus the computer. Television, though earlier, is steeper. Because its value was immediately experienced. The computer was a far more obscure device. So, there are exceptions in the chart countering the trend. It's important to ask why. Bitcoin can be an outlier too! Value perception plays a large role in the steepness of each individual curve. It’s one of the main drivers of technology diffusion according to Everett Rogers who first studied these curves. This renders adoption narratives like “It’s like the Internet in 1994,” or “innovation adoption curves are getting steeper over time,” less convincing.
Prandaj, pyetja: A është plani aktual i furnizimit 4 vjeçar ideal?
Reduktimi në rritje i ofertës
Alternativa është e thjeshtë: ISR. Nuk ka përgjysmime, por çdo bllok do të ketë një rënie të lehtë në shpërblimin e bllokut. Pra, blloku 0 do të ketë 50 BTC. Blloku 1 do të ketë 49.9999, etj. Një funksion linear nuk është ideal, por ka mundësi të tjera.
The ISR schedule won't prevent volatility, but it would surely decrease it, as there are no more pent up shocks to the market. Such a change will turn Bitcoin into a more stable asset, gradually increasing its price over time.
Would the media hype and attention be reduced, then? Possibly. But how many more people would have stayed for the ride? Where’s the optimum point between these two schedules? It’s imaginable that ISR could have improved adoption. The halving cycle might largely obfuscate Bitcoin’s perceived value.
In the future, when we can test Bitcoin out on other planets, or spin up another simulation, we’ll run this experiment. I expect the halving is not the optimal design. Satoshi has made a mistake...in retrospect.
Ky është një postim i ftuar nga Bitcoin Graffiti. Opinionet e shprehura janë tërësisht të tyret dhe nuk pasqyrojnë domosdoshmërisht ato të BTC Inc ose Bitcoin Revistë.
Burimi origjinal: Bitcoin Revistë