By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 year ago - Waktos maca: 4 menit
Bitcoin Faces The Liquidity Steamroller Of Global Markets
Salah sahiji faktor anu paling penting dina pasar nyaéta likuiditas. Pangurangan global dina likuiditas parantos ngirimkeun kelas aset ka tingkat rendah sareng ngancurkeun kabeungharan.
Di handap ieu mangrupakeun excerpt ti édisi panganyarna tina Bitcoin Majalah Pro, Bitcoin Majalah urang newsletter pasar premium. Janten diantara anu pangheulana nampi wawasan ieu sareng anu sanés dina ranté bitcoin analisis pasar langsung ka koropak anjeun, ngalanggan kiwari.
Likuiditas Aya Dina Korsi Supir
By far, one of the most important factors in any market is liquidity — which can be defined in many different ways. In this piece, we cover some ways to think about global liquidity and how it impacts bitcoin.
Hiji pandangan tingkat luhur likuiditas nyaéta neraca bank sentral. Salaku bank sentral geus jadi pembeli marginal hutang daulat sorangan, jaminan KPR-dijieun sarta instrumen finansial séjén, ieu geus disadiakeun pasar kalawan leuwih liquidity mésér aset salajengna up kurva resiko. A seller beungkeut pamaréntah nyaéta meuli asset béda. Nalika sistem ngagaduhan langkung seueur cadangan, artos, modal, sareng sajabana (kumaha ogé hoyong ngajelaskeun éta), aranjeunna kedah angkat ka mana waé.
Ku sababaraha cara anu nyababkeun salah sahiji naékna panghargaan aset sacara global salami 12 taun ka pengker, saluyu sareng jaman énggal ékspérimén kuantitatif easing sareng monetisasi hutang. Neraca bank sentral sakuliah Amérika Serikat, Cina, Jepang jeung Uni Éropa ngahontal leuwih $31 triliun saméméhna taun ieu, nu ampir 10X ti tingkat deui dina 2003. Ieu geus trend tumuwuh pikeun dekade, tapi fiskal jeung moneter 2020. kawijakan nyandak neraca pikeun ngarekam tingkat dina waktu krisis global.
Since earlier this year, we’ve seen a peak in central bank assets and a global attempt to wind down these balance sheets. The peak in the S&P 500 index was just two months prior to all of the quantitative tightening (QT) efforts we’re watching play out today. Although not the only factor that drives price and valuations in the market, bitcoin’s price and cycle has been affected in the same way. The annual rate-of-change peak in major central banks’ assets happened just weeks prior to bitcoin’s first push to new all-time highs around $60,000, back in March 2021. Whether it’s the direct impact and influence of central banks or the market’s perception of that impact, it’s been a clear macro driving force of all markets over the last 18 months.
Aya usaha global pikeun ngaleungitkeun neraca bank sentralAt a market cap of just fractions of global wealth, bitcoin has faced the liquidity steamroller that’s hammered every other market in the world. If we use the framework that bitcoin is a liquidity sponge (more so than other assets) — soaking in all of the excess monetary supply and liquidity in the system in times of crisis expansion — then the significant contraction of liquidity will cut the other way. Coupled with bitcoin’s inelastic illiquid supply profile of 77.15% with a vast number of HODLers of last resort, the negative impact on price is magnified much more than other assets.
One of the potential drivers of liquidity in the market is the amount of money in the system, measured as global M2 in USD terms. M2 money supply includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits and other liquid forms of currency. Both cyclical expansions in global M2 supply have happened during the expansions of global central bank assets and expansions of bitcoin siklus.
We view bitcoin as a monetary inflation hedge (or liquidity hedge) rather than one against a “CPI” (or price) inflation hedge. Monetary debasement, more units in the system over time, has driven many asset classes higher. Yet, bitcoin is by far the best-designed asset in our view and one of the best-performing assets to counteract the future trend of perpetual monetary debasement, money supply expansion and central bank asset expansion.
Henteu écés sabaraha lila pangurangan bahan dina neraca Fed sabenerna tiasa tahan. Kami ngan ukur ningali pangurangan 2% tina a Masalah neraca $ 8.96 triliun dina puncakna. Antukna, urang ningali neraca ngembangna salaku hiji-hijina pilihan pikeun ngajaga sakabéh sistem moneter ngambang, tapi jadi jauh, pasar geus underestimated sabaraha jauh Fed geus daék balik.
The lack of viable monetary policy options and the inevitability of this perpetual balance sheet expansion is one of the strongest cases for bitcoin’s long-run success. What else can central banks and fiscal policy makers do in future times of recession and crisis?
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