Brewing Krisis Hutang Pasar Munculna

By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 year ago - Waktos maca: 4 menit
Rebo, 13 Juli 2022 3:00

Brewing Krisis Hutang Pasar Munculna

The dollar AS geus risen ka highs 20-taun bari yen Jepang jeung euro anu akting kawas currencies pasar munculna. Naha ieu tanda peringatan krisis?

Di handap ieu mangrupakeun excerpt ti édisi panganyarna tina Bitcoin Majalah Pro, Bitcoin Majalah urang newsletter pasar premium. Janten diantara anu pangheulana nampi wawasan ieu sareng anu sanés dina ranté bitcoin analisis pasar langsung ka koropak anjeun, ngalanggan kiwari.

DXY Taunan Parobahan Sinyal Krisis Unfolding

Salaku Federal Reserve, anu nyepeng hiji-hijina kadali kana kawijakan moneter tina mata uang cadangan dunya, terus tighten kawijakan moneter tina dollar AS, ékonomi global geus mimiti megatkeun salaku hasilna, keur pencét jeung dollar kuat sarta soaring harga komoditi. dina tandem.

We can look to the U.S Dollar Index (DXY), which measures a weighted basket of fiat currencies against the dollar, which has soared to two-decade highs. Comparing the DXY year-over-year change with bitcoin, we can see clearly the market periods throughout bitcoin’s history that coincide with rising and falling dollar strength. 

So while the adoption of bitcoin and cryptocurrency more broadly has its own native adoption curve, the cyclical bubbles and busts can be thought to be both enabled and then subsequently crashed by the ebbs and flows of central bank monetary policy dovishness and hawkishness.

Ngahurungkeun perhatian urang ka Jepang jeung Éropa, boh yen Jepang jeung euro anu behaving kawas currencies pasar munculna. Dua jurusan geus leungit leuwih dina nilai ngalawan dollar leuwih taun kamari ti FXMC munculna pasar indéks karinjang diwangun ku yuan Cina, Méksiko peso, Rand Afrika Selatan sarta lira Turki. Tina karanjang anu beuratna sami, yuan sareng peso parantos kaleungitan 3.5% sareng 3.8% masing-masing dina taun kamari sedengkeun Rand parantos kaleungitan 15.7% sareng lira parantos murag ampir 50%. 

Teu saimbangna struktural jeung euro jeung yen téh alatan duanana EU jeung Jepang keur importers badag tanaga, bari bank sentral maranéhanana, ECB jeung BoJ mungguh, terus aggressively debase mata uang maranéhanana jeung sagala rupa bentuk kontrol kurva ngahasilkeun.

Ironisna nyaéta yén mata uang kadua sareng katilu panggedéna di dunya sanés mangrupikeun pasar anu muncul, tapi ékonomi anu langkung maju anu ayeuna gaduh kakurangan énergi sareng komoditi nyata anu teu tiasa direngsekeun ku printer artos bank sentral. The currencies nu ambruk salaku hasil tina saimbangna ieu.

Incoming Munculna Debt Defaults

Numutkeun kana Bloomberg, Aya ampir saparapat triliun dollar patut hutang pasar munculna anu dagang di marabahaya akuntansi pikeun kurang leuwih 17% tina sakabeh hutang pasar munculna denominated dina dollar, euro atawa yen.

As bitcoin/cryptocurrency natives know all too well in recent months, the default of one counterparty is only isolated in theory, and in practice the second/third order effects are seemingly impossible to know beforehand.

In regards to El Salvador’s bitcoin adoption, the nation has only purchased $38 million worth of bitcoin, and given citizens the option to use either BTC or USD as a tax-free legal tender, which is a pittance compared to the $800 million worth of dollar debt owed on its bonds in 2025.

Hal konci pikeun ngarti éta dina sistem moneter dumasar hutang, krisis hutang dasarna mangrupa squeeze pondok. Khususna ngeunaan dolar, sanaos jumlah stimulus anu ageung disayogikeun sapanjang 2020 dugi ka 2021, kakurangan struktural dolar aya kusabab pangwangunan tatanan moneter internasional.

Aya meureun geus jeung masih bisa surplus dollar, tapi posisi pondok implisit masif di sakuliah dunya nyiptakeun suplai / saimbangna paménta; kakurangan dollar. Responna nya éta aset dollar-denominated dijual pikeun nutupan posisi on Liabilities dollar, nu nyiptakeun loop eupan balik tina ragrag harga asset, nyirorot liquidity, debtor creditworthiness, sarta ngaronjatkeun kalemahan ékonomi.

Bitcoin is absolutely scarce, but has no structural shortage built into the system. During a credit unwind, bitcoin sells off as people rush for dollars to cover their short positions (debts).

Pikeun cutatan urang edisi Maret 7,

“It would be wise to warn our readers that despite being extremely bullish on bitcoin’s prospects over the long term, the current macroeconomic outlooks looks extremely weak. Any excessive leverage present in your portfolio should be evaluated.

"Bitcoin in your cold storage is perfectly safe while mark-to-market leverage is not. For willing and patient accumulators of bitcoin, the current and potential future price action should be viewed as a massive opportunity.

“If a liquidity crisis is to play out, indiscriminate selling of bitcoin will occur (along with every other asset) in a rush to dollars. What is occurring during this time is essentially a short squeeze of dollars.

"Responna bakal janten kaskade deflasi di pasar finansial sareng resesi global upami ieu bakal kabuka."

final Catetan

The contagion that has occurred in recent months in cryptocurrency markets may have been just a taste of what is to come next in traditional financial markets. Despite bitcoin being nearly 70% from its all-time highs, bitcoin is currently treated as a high beta asset to legacy market liquidity dynamics, and if the worst is yet to come in regards to deleveraging and further volatility in the traditional markets, bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. It will be subject to the global flight to dollars during a major risk-off event.

sumber aslina: Bitcoin majalah