Ngaharepkeun Volatilitas Dina Pasar Anu Teu Pasti

By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 year ago - Waktos maca: 3 menit
Kemis, 6 Oktober 2022 3:00

Ngaharepkeun Volatilitas Dina Pasar Anu Teu Pasti

Volatility thrives dina kateupastian pasar sarta kaluar paling di pasar biruang. Eta mantuan pikeun nalungtik kaayaan volatility sapanjang siklus kaliwat.

Di handap ieu mangrupakeun excerpt ti édisi panganyarna tina Bitcoin Majalah Pro, Bitcoin Majalah urang newsletter pasar premium. Janten diantara anu pangheulana nampi wawasan ieu sareng anu sanés dina ranté bitcoin analisis pasar langsung ka koropak anjeun, ngalanggan kiwari.

Kecap Dinten: Volatility

Anjeun siap pikeun ngaronjat volatility? Biasana pikeun pasar janten langkung volatile nalika urang langkung jero kana pasar biruang. Salaku kateupastian, illiquidity sarta teu sabar tumuwuh, langkung pamilon pasar mimiti miharep pikeun extremes pasar: boh nu pasar geus bottomed sarta siklus bula anyar nyaeta salah sahiji Federal Reserve pangsi jauh atawa yén wates handap, margin panggero liquidation dinten bakal kajadian imminently kusabab a runtuhna Credit Suisse. Sarerea hangs on tepi kalawan unggal move pasar utama pikeun masihan aranjeunna sababaraha nurun sinyal. Kisaran harga mimiti ngalegaan sareng sababaraha (bakal) gerakan mingguan atanapi bulanan dikondensasi janten ngan ukur hiji dinten aksi.

Malahan tiasa janten salah sahiji investor anu pangsaéna sepanjang waktos, Stanley Druckenmiller, mendakan dinten ayeuna janten salah sahiji lingkungan anu paling hese pikeun terang:

"Kuring parantos ngalakukeun ieu salami 45 taun sareng antara pandém, perang sareng réspon kabijakan gélo di AS sareng sadunya, ieu mangrupikeun lingkungan anu paling hese anu kuring kantos tepang pikeun nyobian sareng gaduh kapercayaan kana ramalan genep dugi ka dua belas bulan payun. .”

Kanggo sabagéan ageung, langkung saé pikeun ngalakukeun tindakan sareng gaduh posisi résiko anu ageung, siap nyebarkeun saatos pasar stabil atanapi tenang.

We still hold our same view that new lows are likely to be made and that we’ve yet to reach a final conclusion yet to the cycle for equities, risk assets and bitcoin.

Kami bakal ngingetkeun pamiarsa ngeunaan ageungna unjuk rasa pasar biruang anu urang tingali dugi ka ayeuna sareng ageungna unjuk rasa ieu dina 2000 sareng 2008 analog. Aya siklus séjén pikeun diajar sarta ngabandingkeun tapi ieu ngan sababaraha conto panganyarna.

We’ve already seen a significant 17.41% rally from lows for the SPX with bitcoin running to $25,000. Yet, that didn’t change its next reversion lower and, what we think, is the medium-term downside trajectory playing out still. Even in the last-stage collapses of 2002 and 2009, the S&P 500 saw rallies over 20% before going lower. As the market piles in to overshort bloody conditions and doomsday news on higher leverage, remember that there’s no free lunch. 

titik sejen metot pikeun dicatet yén pasar biruang ilaharna pondok, langgeng 10 bulan rata-rata. Patokan 10-bulan éta kasarna bakal nempatkeun urang ka tempat ayeuna. Tapi, aya ide anu mangpaat sareng tesis anu kedah dilakukeun yén karusakan anu ayeuna urang tingali dugi ka ayeuna nyaéta ngeunaan panyesuaian deui kana waktos anu unik sareng bersejarah pikeun harga, beungkeut sareng kiridit. Urang bieu malah geus anjog di naon earnings klasik sarta cyclical nanggung pasar.

As bonds, currencies, and global equities all have continued trading with increasing levels of volatility, the recent historical and implied volatility of bitcoin is eerily muted compared to historical standards.

While the lack of recent volatility in bitcoin could be a sign that much of the leverage and speculative mania of the bull market has been almost entirely washed out, our eyes remain on the outsized legacy markets for signs of fragility and volatility, which could serve as a short/intermediate-term headwind.

While the world around bitcoin’s price action looks to be becoming increasingly uncertain, the Bitcoin network remains completely unaffected at the protocol level, continuing to do its job as a neutral monetary asset/settlement layer, despite its exchange rate volatility.

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