By Bitcoin Majalah - 2 sababaraha taun ka pengker - Waktos Bacaan: 2 menit
How 'Liveliness' Can Track Bitcoin Price Bull And Bear Cycles
The Liveliness on-chain metric tracks accumulation and distribution behavior of bitcoin holders, corresponding to price.
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Dinten ayeuna, urang ningali deui métrik on-chain anu mangpaat, Liveliness, anu ngalacak akumulasi sareng paripolah distribusi HODLers. Salaku refresher a, Liveliness diitung salaku rasio: jumlah sadaya koin Poé ancur jeung jumlah sadaya poé koin kungsi dijieun.
Liveliness increases as long-term holders distribute more coins, creating more coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.Liveliness decreases as long-term holders accumulate more coins, creating less coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.sakabehna bitcoin’s history, we see clear patterns of long-term holder distribution and accumulation that drive bull and bear market cycles that can be easily tracked with Liveliness.
Bitcoin's Liveliness over history.Sapanjang taun kamari, urang ningali métrik Liveliness naékna sareng panyekel jangka panjang ngadistribusikaeun langkung seueur koin salami naékna harga luhur sadaya waktos ti Januari dugi ka Méi. Sanggeus éta datang periode kuat akumulasi salila harga handap, nepi ka Oktober dimana sababaraha sebaran wadah jangka panjang mimiti nyandak bentuk. Dina sababaraha minggu kamari kalayan harga berpotensi dugi ka handap saatos acara deleveraging panganyarna, tren Liveliness sigana parantos ngamimitian pergeseran deui ka jaman akumulasi sakedik.
Bitcoin Liveliness over a two-year period.This would be a good sign to see long-term holders accumulate at these lower prices before another period of distribution. Accelerated long-term holder distribution at the current bitcoin price would signal a lack of confidence from the “smart money” that bitcoin has more upside over the next few months.
Bitcoin Liveliness over a three-month period.Another way to view the Liveliness trend is to look at Binary Liveliness. Binary Liveliness is designed to help identify periods of accumulation and high distribution by older coins. The green value on the below chart will produce 1 when Liveliness is higher than its 30-day moving average. When it's below the average, it produces 0.
Garis biru bakal ngabalikeun 1 nalika Liveliness langkung luhur dinten ayeuna tibatan dinten sateuacana atanapi ngahasilkeun 0. Rata-rata gerak 30 dinten teras dilarapkeun kana hasil ieu.
Naon anu ditingalikeun ku data ayeuna, ningali garis biru, nyaéta Binary Liveliness mimiti trend sareng ngadukung nilai-nilai anu langkung handap anu nunjukkeun Liveliness aya dina tren turun anyar, atanapi periode akumulasi panyekel jangka panjang.
Binary Liveliness indicates we're entering a period of accumulation.sumber aslina: Bitcoin majalah