Kahirupan Saatos Pupusna Fiat

By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 year ago - Waktos maca: 24 menit
Jum, 27 Méi 2022 1:41

Kahirupan Saatos Pupusna Fiat

Four days in inflation-ravaged Lebanon with "The Bitcoin Standard" author Dr. Saifedean Ammous.

Artikel ieu mimitina muncul dina Bitcoin Majalah urang "Masalah Bulan." Pikeun meunangkeun salinan, kunjungi toko kami.

"Naon kedahna preferensi waktos artikel majalah abdi?"

Ieu mangrupikeun patarosan anu kuring mimiti ajukan ka panulis Saifedean Ammous nalika urang leumpang di trotoar kota anu poék, hiji-hijina cahaya anu ngahontal kami ti réstoran caket dieu dimana tuangeun seuri dianggurkeun.

Ningali naon waé anu tiasa janten lapangan dahareun pinggiran kota anu sibuk, kesan awal kuring ngeunaan Libanon nyaéta sigana teu kaganggu, bahkan normal, jauh tina headline anu nunjukkeun krisis ékonomi sakali dina abad anu ditetepkeun ku inflasi taunan anu ayeuna paling luhur di dunya. dunya dina 140%.

Tapi lamun sibuk Beirut teu némbongan hayang pisan maénkeun anak poster pikeun kasakit sistem finansial fiat, Saifedean gancang catetan lampu jalan kaluar luhureun urang, korban tina motong anggaran pamaréntah.

"Pasar," saur Saifedean, "ngan saukur milarian jalan."

It’s the start of a series of discussions to take place over days as we explore the city, consider his newly published work, “The Fiat Standard,” and probe the mysteries at the heart of Bitcoin that remain as the calendar year turns to 2022 and beyond.

Of frequent debate is what I assert is a generational divide forming between Bitcoin’s old-guard technologists and an ascendant meat-eating, family-first, Bitcoin-asa-lifestyle movement for whom Saifedean’s work has become a kind of dogma.

After all, it wasn’t long ago that Bitcoin discussion was defined by early coders who saw it solely as a software, an improving protocol for moving digital money. Today, it’s the ironclad economics of Bitcoin that dominate discourse, in no small part due to Saifedean (pronounced Safe-e-deen) and his 2018 publication, “The Bitcoin Standar."

It’s not an exaggeration to say more people now buy bitcoin after reading the book than they do on discovering Satoshi Nakamoto’s 2008 white paper or by reviewing its code online.

So great has been the fanfare around the work, CEOs of public companies now proudly boast they’ve spent billions adopting a “bitcoin standard,” the most recent being an Australian baseball team that tweeted images of coaches teaching the book both on and off the field.

Pamiarsa anu resep panulis pasti bakal mendakan seueur anu resep dina "The Fiat Standard," sekuel anu diterbitkeun ku nyalira anu tiasa langkung ageung dina negeskeun yén nyitak artos bank sentral mangrupikeun kejahatan masarakat anu luar biasa ngalangkungan kabijakan moneter.

Kaasup di antara bab-bab na pasti janten paporit kipas sapertos "Fiat Life," "Fiat Food" sareng "Fiat Science" anu ngararangkay agénsi nagara sapertos Administrasi Pangan sareng Narkoba AS sareng masalah sapertos perubahan iklim salaku gejala gangguan pamaréntah dina kabébasan, industri. jeung kahirupan kulawarga.

Still, for his part, Saifedean pushes back on assertions he’s forging an association between Bitcoin and alternative lifestyles, or that his position and influence make him responsible for changes in sentiment among the movement.

Anjeunna nyokot tulang tina lauk bakar-bakar, panonna hangus tur blackened kana sockets na, nalika anjeunna tungtungna ngajawab patarosan abdi langkung antagonis langsung.

“These ideas are popular because they match where Bitcoin fits in this time and place,” he says. “This is what Bitcoin is here to rescue us from, inflation and all the trappings of inflation.”

Perjalanan urang di Libanon bakal nawiskeun kontéks kana pernyataan éta.

FIAT SAIFEDEAN

Saifedean’s road to Bitcoin is a long one, defined by denial, acceptance and fateful encounters. It’s a meandering tale, relayed as we weave the many parked cars and traffic bollards that squeeze us often and tightly against Beirut’s straining retaining walls.

Putra dokter, Saifedean ngécéskeun anjeunna digedékeun di "salah sahiji kulawarga éta" dimana anjeun kedah ngiringan padamelan atanapi upami anjeun dicap gagal. Sanajan kitu, anjeunna bakal hayang pisan megatkeun tradisi.

Saifedean, now 41, refers to these early years as the “high time preference” period of his life, the phrase (denoting a bias toward short-term decision-making) now colloquial as a critique against fiat finance thanks to its use in “The Bitcoin Standar."

Kedokteran sigana loba teuing gawé, jadi anjeunna milih diajar rékayasa mékanis di Universitas Amérika Beirut (AUB). Urang bakal nyéépkeun seueur waktos ngurilingan bagian kota anu gated ieu, kebon tangkal cedar anu tenang sareng lapangan maén bal anu ditembok tina sprawl kota.

Sakali di pinggiran kota, AUB ayeuna dikepung ku réstoran sareng toko anu gancang, rumah sakit na janten pusat pikeun anu disebat Saifedean salaku "ritual COVID," sareng anjeunna henteu nyéépkeun kasempetan pikeun negeskeun yén virus disalahgunakeun pikeun ngalaksanakeun. bentuk anyar kontrol draconian.

Upami anjeunna mimitina hoyong nunjukkeun ka kuring di sabudeureun almamater anu dipikanyaah, minat éta bakal lekasan nalika urang diganggu ku penjaga anu badé ngajantenkeun anjeunna ngagem "moncong". “Isin,” pokna, ngusapan buuk nu ubanan ku leungeun nu jengkel. "Éta kampus anu saé."

It’s another recurring theme — that for Saifedean, Lebanon is something of a cherished second home. “It was the hedonistic capital of the world,” he recalls. “If you wanted to party, enjoy yourself, have great food, great wine, there was nothing like it up until 2019.”

Éta nalika krisis ayeuna mimiti, ngarobah "Swiss di Wétan Tengah" janten nagara anu katelah pareum listrik sareng diaspora anu beuki milarian status pangungsian di luar negeri.

Hésé ngahijikeun garis waktos anu pasti nalika masalahna - nyaéta, decoupling tina kurs bursa pasar hideung (teras 27,000 pon Lebanese kana dolar AS) tina tingkat bank sentral (masih sacara resmi 1,500 pon kana dolar AS) - mimiti. , atawa naha naon dituturkeun bakal jadi kuat ngalawan naratif Libanon éta "tahan banting" bangsa, salawasna bisa nginjeum jeung refinance hutang na sanajan tantangan domestik.

Dilahirkeun ti kulawarga anu tanahna dirampas ku Israél di Paléstina, Saifedean ningali Nagara sareng karesepna pikeun perencanaan pusat salaku panyabab utama pikeun krisis di Libanon, sareng nalika urang leumpang, anjeunna ngabuktikeun pisan dina ngaidentipikasi seueur épék campur tangan pamaréntah. .

"Aya panyewa tahan anu macét di dinya anu mayar sapertos $ 7 sataun kanggo nyéwa," anjeunna ngajelaskeun, nunjuk ka gedong pencoklatan anu anjeunna yakin nyaéta korban kontrol nyéwa anu salah. "Aranjeunna ngantosan dibayar. Di sakuliah kota, apartemen ieu ambruk.

Aya kasedih tangtu kana narasi, sabab di antara gedong-gedong ieu tempat Saifedean mendakan minat kana ékonomi salaku sarjana di AUB.

Jaman harita, sikepna béda. "Kuring panginten dunya peryogi perencanaan. Kuring ngagaduhan kateudewasaan statistik sapertos anu urang kedah gaduh otoritas pikeun nyarioskeun ka urang naon anu kudu dilakukeun sabab dunya mangrupikeun tempat anu pikasieuneun, ”saurna. "Kuring milih jalan fiat."

It’s a path that would next take him to the London School of Economics (LSE), where he’d have his first encounter with the outsider Austrian economists his work has revitalized, and finally to the Lebanese American University (LAU) in Beirut, where he’d write “The Bitcoin Standar."

There, he says, Bitcoin saved his life.

HIPERINFLASI IEU

We’ve settled into the corner of a brightly painted café when our talk turns to Saifedean’s rising profile and how it might impair his relationships in the city. He freely admits he’s lost contacts from his former life because of his stances on COVID-19 and Bitcoin. At times, though, Saifedean seems reluctant to make the situation worse.

Sanaos dorongan fotografer urang Ibrahim, anjeunna mimitina henteu hoyong pose di payuneun Banque du Liban, bank sentral anu gedong grafiti-strewn sareng barricaded ngagaduhan tanda-tanda frustrasi anu ditujukeun kana turunna ékonomi.

SAIFEDEAN:

Éta ngagosok uyah dina tatu.

IBRAHIM:

Anjeun nuju ngabahas ékonomi.
Teu nyangka Salim [Sfeir, kapala Asosiasi Bank di Libanon] milikna bitcoin?

If the offhand remark makes it seem at first as if there’s a popular awareness of Bitcoin and how it might be a solution for the crisis in Lebanon, we’ll find this isn’t exactly the case.

Saifedean puts the blame on local financial institutions that have for years pressured Bitcoin with restrictive policies. A central bank directive, he says, has been successful in turning away interest despite the fact that it’s not clear if buying and selling bitcoin dilarang.

No arrests have been made, but there’s been an implied force Saifedean experienced firsthand when he would try and fail to install a Bitcoin ATM at a local shopping center in 2017. That isn’t to say others haven’t been successful.

"Kuring terang jalma-jalma anu bank bakal nutup akunna kecuali anjeun nandatanganan makalah anu nyarios yén anjeun moal ngurus mata uang kripto," saur anjeunna. "Aranjeunna tarung éta unggal léngkah."

Éta sanés nyarios yén batur teu acan suksés saprak éta, khususna saatos runtuhna kapercayaan dina séktor perbankan lokal.

We find a Bitcoin ATM at a nearby currency exchange, and it’s clear the operators see utility in bitcoin. They don’t want to be identified (for fear of reprisal), but they’re open about how bitcoin is allowing local Lebanese to store value safely amid trying times.

"Kami ngagaduhan rébuan dolar di bumi kami," operator ngajelaskeun. "Aranjeunna maok artos unggal waktos aranjeunna nyitak catetan énggal." Anjeun terang yén anjeunna ngagem kabeungharanna, jaket kulit samak na katingali énggal sareng dihias sacara bébas ku ranté emas.

Pamilik ngira-ngira ATM meunang kira-kira 15 palanggan sadinten, tapi éta jauh tina naon anu anjeun ngarepkeun di kota jutaan dimana mata uangna turun unggal dinten.

Tapi, di luar toko, kahirupan di tengah hiperinflasi mawa adul stabilitas anu tangtu. Jandéla sanggeus jandéla dina trendi Hamra Street nampilkeun jas panganyarna na streetwear ti Nike, Gucci, Rolex jeung sajabana. Dina beungeut cai, sanajan, locals nyebutkeun galur nu tumuwuh.

Ibrahim hayang pisan ngajelaskeun kumaha hyperinflation geus impacted hirupna. Anjeunna nyéwa dua imah, hasil tina nikah anyar. Duanana sami dina ukuran sareng lokasi, tapi anjeunna mayar 1 juta lira per bulan (atanapi sakitar $ 35) pikeun anu kahiji, sareng 500 euro (sakitar $ 600) pikeun anu kadua.

Biaya ieu diatur ku kontrak sareng janten henteu nampung parobahan dina nilai mata uang lokal. "Anjeun tiasa ngabantah pikeun dua pihak [kontrak]," saur Ibrahim, alat-alat Canon perdagangan na jostling dina saddlebag a. "Kuring teu bisa mayar 500 euro. Tapi juragan, sanés lepatna mata uangna turun.

Parantos, anjeunna parantos ningali dua kelas pagawé muncul - jalma anu dibayar ku firma asing dina dolar AS sareng anu nampi gaji dina pon Libanon. Pikeun tekenan, anjeunna nunjuk ka penjaga lalulintas caket dieu pacing jauh soré na.

"Gajina kirang ti $50. Anjeunna biasa nampi $ 800 sareng ayeuna anjeunna nampi $ 50. Anjeun tiasa ngabayangkeun kumaha ieu mangaruhan pilihan tuangeunana, waktos karesepna, ”saurna.

Aya losers dina hyperinflation, pasti, tapi aya ogé winners. Sakumaha anu dijelaskeun ku Saifedean, kaayaan éta henteu parah pisan pikeun anu beunghar. "Éta kakarék meunang 95% diskon on maranéhna [KPR],"Manéhna nyebutkeun Ditengah dinner dina grill upscale sibuk.

Ieu mangrupikeun wahyu halus anu bakal disetél dina dinten-dinten anu bakal datang, yén inflasi sanés krisis kamanusaan tapi kanker tulang - ganas meureun tapi ampir teu kadeteksi dina beungeut cai.

"Jalma anu mampuh tuang di dieu," Ibrahim nambihan, "masih tuang di dieu."

BITCOIN AWAL

As Saifedean’s journey shows, it isn’t always easy to recognize economic reality — even he would spend years skeptical of the idea bitcoin was replacing gold and becoming global money.

Memang, karya akademis mimiti Saifedean urang tetep steeped dina gagasan sababaraha otoritas, lamun ngan leres informed jeung wanti, éta sanggup enacting parobahan ékonomi jeung pulitik.

Salaku murid master, Saifedean bakal mimiti nyieun ngaran dina kolom ditulis pikeun koran sakola Columbia urang, The Columbia Spectator, nu kajawab perjuangan Paléstina jeung rupa hypocrises wangsit ku lembaga Kulon nu nyoba campur jeung mantuan eta.

Salaku disorot ku New York Observer di 2007, Saifedean éta geus mahér nyandak hiji jurus asertif dina isu pulitik, sparking argumen di pihak kampus ngagungkeun kalahiran Israél jeung "nyokot alih" sawala dina debat Hillel ngeunaan naha Zionisme téh rasis. . 

"Anjeun ogé tiasa ngadasarkeun kawarganagaraan dina horoskop. Teu aya Scorpio anu diidinan, sareng kulawarga abdi Scorpios, ”saur Saifedean, hiperbola ngareureuwas lobi pro-Israél anu hadir.

Tesis PhD-Na 2011, "Élmu Énergi Alternatif sareng Kabijakan: Bahan Bakar Nabati salaku Studi Kasus," bakal nandaan titik di mana anjeunna bakal ngamimitian nyalurkeun antagonisna kana targét anu ayeuna.

Kiwari, éta berbunyi salaku prelude pikeun "The Fiat Standard," arguing subsidi pamaréntah pikeun biofuel sabenerna ngarugikeun lingkungan. Buku anyarna nyegerkeun deui ideu, negeskeun yén minyak sareng bahan bakar hidrokarbon sanés kedah dikenal pikeun sajarahna ningkatkeun kahirupan manusa.

Usaha pikeun ngahijikeun karya rékayasa sarjana sareng minat énggalna dina ékonomi, makalah éta mendakan panulisna mimitina nyobian modél kumaha mandat biofuel tiasa ngahontal tujuan iklim, arah anu bakal robih gancang saatos Krisis Keuangan Agung 2008.

Nalika pasar global nuju runtuh, Saifedean mimiti ningali dirina dina akademisi anu ngabenerkeun bailout pikeun milyarder kalayan modél spreadsheet anu sami. Nalika éta, saur anjeunna, anjeunna mimiti nangkeup "perspektif Austria".

"Kuring terang yén jalma-jalma terang yén dunya jauh teuing rumit, yén kuring henteu nyalira."

Diberdayakeun, anjeunna bakal teras-terasan nyerat skripsi PhD-na, sacara naif mikir yén anjeunna bakal dirangkul salaku pamikir mandiri anu kontroversial. Gantina, péngkolan ieu nuju libertarianism ieu patepung jeung lalawanan ku kuningan Columbia, sarta anjeunna tetep pait ngeunaan rebuke nu.

"Kuring teu dipaliré kumaha sakabéh cara intelektual maranéhanana ngadeukeutan dunya ngandelkeun statistik sorangan, perencanaan sentral sosialis," nyebutkeun anjeunna. Éta résponna karasaeun nunjukkeun sigana kusabab kolotna angkat ka New York pikeun kalulusanna ngan ukur mendakan pertahanan PhD na parantos dibatalkeun kusabab prihatin ngeunaan eusina. Anjeunna bakal ngantosan sataun deui sateuacan nampi gelar doktor.

Saifedean’s first brush with Bitcoin would occur soon after.

Arriving in New York in the summer of 2011, he had told himself he would buy 100 bitcoin for $100, but as the price quickly spiked above $30, he was turned away due to the expense and his conceited conviction that Bitcoin would almost certainly fail.

Samentawis waktos, anjeunna bakal tetep yakin yén emas mangrupikeun jawaban kana masalah dina sistem kauangan, bahkan nyobian mendakan ngamimitian pikeun ngamungkinkeun para pangguna nransfer logam mulia kalayan gampang aplikasi digital populér sapertos PayPal. (Anjeunna bakal angkat ka Swiss pikeun milarian kolong fisik sareng ngaklaim ngagaduhan minat diantara investor samentawis.)

Sanajan kitu, Saifedean lajeng jauh ti nyalira dina pamikiran aktip tur thoughtfully ngeunaan keuangan alternatif, sarta anjeunna kukituna geura-giru jadi leuwih outspoken dina airing rasa teu percaya kana sistem warisan.

Tanggal ti ahir 2011 sareng awal 2012, penampilan awalna dina "Laporan Keizer" nunjukkeun naon anu bakal janten subjek salajengna tina karya akademikna - ideu yén Amérika Serikat henteu deui sistem kapitalis pasar gratis.

Max Keiser, the show’s host, recalls trying to get Saifedean to see Bitcoin’s potential at the time but claims his attempts were rebuffed. (“He hated it,” Keiser says now.) Saifedean doesn’t remember it exactly that way but admits he remained “uninformed” on the subject until 2013. (He vaguely recalls the Keiser discussion but isn’t exactly sure it happened.)

Either way, as the price of bitcoin rose toward $1,000 that year, Saifedean began to rethink his skepticism, sending a series of emails to Keiser seeking advice on how to buy. Shortly after, he would make his first purchase and begin dating his wife in the same week.

Panginten kusabab perjalanan pribadi ieu anu Saifedean beuki ningali stabilitas kauangan sareng domestik na aya hubunganana.

“The profound heart of all of this is that it is the hardness of the money that reflects on the time preference. That is what Bitcoin allowed me to discover in myself and allowed me to put it in the book. When you have a way to store value for the future, you can provide for your future.”

“I know a lot of people who have done the same thing,” he continues, “they get into Bitcoin and get married. They started to think about the future.”

HISTERIK COVID

Still, if the legacy of “The Bitcoin Standard” is the clarity with which it described the economic problems Bitcoin solves, debate remains on the extent of the societal impact of its solution.

On hand to emphasize the divide is Bitcoin Magazine’s own Aaron van Wirdum. A technology reporter in the field since 2013, his interactions with Saifedean quickly reveal how claims core to “The Fiat Standard” can feel taboo for those to whom Bitcoin is more science than politics.

Indeed, arguments quickly flare around whether removing government money from economies can have downstream impacts on healthcare, wellness and conservation, with conversation turning tense around the idea these subjects have any domain in Bitcoin di sadaya.

Amid one discussion on how outlooks among users have clearly evolved on the matter, it’s Saifedean who uses the floor to claim Bitcoin critics all “want to eat bugs [and] wear a mask.”

Harun nyebatkeun koméntar éta salaku pivot subjek, sareng Saifedean teu buang-buang waktos pikeun nyorong deui.

SAIFEDEAN: 

Oh hehehehe, anjeun salah sahiji [COVID] histeris di sawatara titik. Duh gusti. 

Harun:

Nya, éta kedah diurus awal sareng susah.

Obrolanna gancang ningkat, sareng Saifedean ngabantah yén jalma-jalma anu mikir sapertos Harun henteu langkung ti pengecut anu ditipu anu dimanipulasi ku Partai Komunis Cina, perusahaan farmasi ageung sareng média mainstream janten fasis modern.

The exchange is laced with criticism against accomplices far and wide, from podcaster Peter McCormack and Microsoft founder Bill Gates (it’s not clear which exactly is part of what he calls “the manboob squad”) to Nassim Taleb (the Lebanese author who wrote the introduction to “The Bitcoin Standard” and with whom he is now engaged in a public feud).

Dina sababaraha menit, anjeunna bakal ngabantah yén média parantos complicit dina nyiptakeun kapercayaan anu nyebar ngeunaan naon anu misinformasi ngeunaan virus sareng panyebaranana, bari ngingetkeun pamaréntah pikeun ngagunakeun totalitarianisme pikeun ngalawan panyakit anu sacara efektif tiasa dilawan. "hirup séhat, gizi, sareng kabersihan dasar."

"Aya artos dina otoriterisme, aya artos anu kedah dilakukeun tina panjagaan, sareng pemirsa TV ngiringan," saur Saifedean, ku ayeuna teu malire tuangeun anu nyegerkeun di payuneunana. 

Nalika waktosna, Harun tiasa nyéépkeun sakedik, koméntar akhirna sapertos kieu, "Naha urang satuju yén aya virus?" Usaha pikeun milarian jalan tengah sigana ngan ukur ngajantenkeun Saifedean langkung ambek nalika anjeunna ngawangun kana crescendo na.

"Sabaraha taun sareng sabaraha nembak anjeun bakalan ningali ieu sanés ngeunaan nembak atanapi topéng? Anjeun parantos nyeuseup kana nyerahkeun kabébasan generasi anu henteu bakal dibalikeun ku murangkalih anjeun.

“I respect your right to be gullible and stay at home. Why can you not respect my right to risk my life? It’s not about health, it’s about control. Wake the fuck up! Wake the fuck up!”

Perdebatan mangrupikeun anu bakal lumangsung deui dina perjalanan opat dinten tapi henteu kantos gaduh gairah anu sami. Saifedean engké ngarujuk kana keukeuh Harun pikeun "ngaracun" anjeunna ku vaksin salaku "teu satuju diantara réréncangan," koméntar anu nawiskeun langkung muted tapi henteu kirang acerbic.

If Aaron is offended by the conversation, he’s adept at hiding it. When you’ve worked through the bitter parts of Bitcoin’s formative years, getting yelled at is simply part of the trade. Still, it’s worth noting this behavior is a target for Saifedean’s critics, who worry it politicizes discussion of a neutral technology with no bearing on broader lifestyle choices.

Hiji kasatimbangan teu stabil

But even as he wields it as a weapon, it’s hard not to admire the zeal with which Saifedean embraces the freedoms Bitcoin has afforded him. If you’re not the target of his animosities, he’s enjoyable company with a deep interest in food and music, and Beirut brings out his inner aficionado.

This sentimentality is understandable when you consider he’d experience a career renaissance here in 2015, when back again in Beirut, he’d publish a breakout paper that argued bitcoin was the only cryptocurrency likely to experience long-term adoption.

“The coexistence of bitcoin and government currencies is an unstable equilibrium: the longer bitcoin exists, the more likely it is to continue, and the more attractive it becomes compared to traditional currencies,” it reads.

Yet, if that work seemed tepid at times (including an obligatory passage about how innovations are often outmoded), more assertive work would soon follow. “Blockchain Technology: What Is It Good For?” and “Can Cryptocurrencies Fulfill the Functions of Money?,” bolder papers that more forcefully argued for Bitcoin as an agent of change, would appear in 2016.

But even as these works spread his message among academics, Saifedean says they did little more than encourage him to spend time “arguing on Facebook.” That’s when his wife convinced him to buckle down and write a book. Penned in two-and-a-half months thereafter, “The Bitcoin Standard” was an attempt to set the record straight, and the sales suggest it did.

Pikeun Saifedean, éta resepsi pasar anu anjeunna mendakan paling validasi. Jauh tina kahirupan dina sistem universitas fallow didefinisikeun dina "The Fiat Standard," dimana pabrik kertas bersaing pikeun handouts kaayaan, anjeunna dilegakeun bukuna kana ramatloka anyar, Saifedean.com, pikeun basis konsumén global.

"Kuring kedah nyandak sadayana ideu anu luar biasa ieu ngeunaan dunya sareng nyobian nyerat drivel anu pikasieuneun ieu anu tiasa ngaliwat jurnal anu teu aya anu maca anu ngatur karir kuring," saur anjeunna kalayan henteu puas. "Ayeuna, abdi tiasa kana keyboard sareng nyerat."

Dina pikiran na, ieu téh kumaha sakabeh industri kedah beroperasi, kalawan panyipta mere nilai ka konsumén, teu boss anu boga aksés ka printer duit. Sabalikna, anjeunna ningali tilas profési na (sareng dunya umumna) pinuh ku jalma anu depresi anu "henteu tiasa ngalakukeun nanaon anu berharga."

“You see a lot of stories of people who feel a lot of emptiness, and you don’t see that with Bitcoiners,” he continues. “[In Bitcoin], you’ve settled on this money that is the final form of money and you can save it, and you know that it’s there.”

It’s these statements that perhaps best explain how Saifedean has influenced outlooks on the future of Bitcoin itself. I argue there’s a widespread confidence now, absent from earlier times, that Bitcoin is an inevitability requiring nothing more than passive acceptance.

It’s a point we debate back and forth, with Saifedean asserting, as he has in his work, that it’s only a steady increase in value over time that will make Bitcoin more mainstream. If this sounds “unidealistic,” he’s keen to assert he’s not an evangelist, nor does he think Bitcoin needs any kind of activist outreach to accelerate its adoption.

"Duit susah teu tiasa tetep ceruk," saur anjeunna. "Upami jumlahna naék, sadayana bakal hoyong asup."

Jeruk Pilling Raja

This debate will resurface again in microcosm at a meetup later, when it becomes clear even Beirut’s Bitcoiners don’t exactly see it as a solution to the crisis. Perspectives vary, but even as conversation slips between English and Arabic, prognosis remain as dim as the pub lighting.

Dibungkus ku syal bankir sareng blazer bulao, Gabor calik bari ngabantah kunaon lembaga kabijakan lokal anu anjeunna damel percaya yén jalan anu pangsaéna nyaéta ngadamel dewan mata uang anu tiasa nyorong bank sentral pikeun nyokong depositna kalayan cadangan dolar AS.

Soon, Saifedean is careening into our conversation from across the room, eager to play Bitcoin defender. “If it’s a committee, it’s central planning, but if you call it a board, it’s not,” he says amid protests. “If you’re not solving the problem, the money printer, you’re just jerking off.”

At the heart of the debate is Saifedean’s central thesis from “The Bitcoin Standard” — politicians that benefit from inflation have no incentive to stop it, a problem that Bitcoin, by removing government from money management, solves by design.

“Tell them to stop bitching and moaning and start buying bitcoin!” he roars.

Leungit, pikeun bagian-Na, Gabor sigana disetél dina impressing nu practicalities zat. "Upami aranjeunna ngeureunkeun nyitak, saha anu bakal mayar gaji?" manéhna nyebutkeun. "Upami anjeun ngamimitian dina tingkat ieu, anjeun henteu ngagaduhan kasempetan pikeun ngayakinkeun aranjeunna."

Marco, tilas tukang apotéker sareng pangadeg grup meetup, teu tiasa ngabantosan tapi satuju, sahenteuna kaluar tina panguping Saifedean. Nalika anjeunna ngajelaskeun éta, warga Libanon lokal yakin yén krisis éta politik. "Aranjeunna nyarios yén éta tiasa direngsekeun ku jepret ramo. Sok aya alesan, ”saurna. "Éta Amérika, atanapi Iran, atanapi Hizbullah, naon waé anu anjeun pikahoyong."

Batur nyebutkeun Libanon geus weathered badai sarupa sateuacan: Dina 1980s, lira inflated wildly ngalawan dollar AS ngan nepi ka ahirna nyaimbangkeun. "Jalma masih percaya yén ieu kaayaan anu sami pisan," saur Marco. "Aranjeunna henteu ningali kedah nganggo pasar alternatif paralel acan."

Most believe the near-term solution is for the country to officially adopt the U.S. dollar, but not because they see any defect with bitcoin. Rather, they seem to believe it just wouldn’t gather popular support here, even if the country took the same progressive steps as El Salvador.

“We have a physics professor going live on TV, saying it twice in the same interview, that the solution for stopping the lira’s situation is shutting down the fucking internet,” Marco adds. “You tell me we can convince these people to buy bitcoin? "

A currency dealer who trades with locals over Telegram and Binance concurs, noting most of the sales he conducts are actually for the U.S. dollar stablecoin Tether. He says Lebanese want the safety of the U.S. dollar, and that to many, crypto stablecoins are the next best thing.

Gabor adds that this is how he even grows his own bitcoin position, buying USDT and selling it on an exchange when the price dips. “Most of the local Bitcoiners don’t want to sell,” he adds.

Amid the debate, the group prompts me to test the theory by conducting a trade over Telegram, so I post a message offering to sell $250 worth of bitcoin for U.S. dollars. Within a minute, I’ve received a reply from someone eager to conduct the sale.

What follows is a bizarre encounter where I shuffle into a black Mercedes only to be told by our dealer he “never touches bitcoins.” He continues to assume I want Tether, asking “ERC-20 or Tron?” until we eventually abandon the poorly translated trade.

Nalika urang uih deui ka bar, urang mendakan omongan anu teu disangka-sangka, sareng Saifedean nyatakeun kagagalan pamaréntahan républik di daérah éta. Gagasan éta bakal karasa wawuh ka pamiarsa Saifedean anu terang pendirianna ngeunaan monarki salaku bentuk karesep, waktos anu langkung handap tina aturan nagara. Tapi sanajan dina bar dimana dulur hayang pisan salinan "The Fiat Standard," visi-Na pikeun Wétan Tengah leuwih damai sigana asalna kaluar salaku leuwih polarizing ti dimaksudkeun.

"Tingali Yordania, aranjeunna gaduh kaamanan, infrastruktur anu tiasa dianggo, sareng nagara anu leres-leres hirup, beradab. Tambih Deui, Hashemites tiasa masihan anjeun listrik 24-jam, ”saurna, nyéépkeun méja.

Pikeun kaheranan anu hadir, anjeunna teras nyarankeun kulawarga pamaréntahan Yordania bahkan tiasa nahan konci pikeun ngarengsekeun pasea régional anu langkung lega. Sanaos aranjeunna Muslim Sunni, aranjeunna turunan langsung ti nabi Muhammad, anu ngajantenkeun aranjeunna populer di kalangan Muslim Syiah.

Kusabab sakabeh perpecahan Sunni-Syiah, anjeunna alesan, asalna tina ambek-ambekan Syiah di panghianatan Sunni ka imah Hashem sanggeus pupusna nabi, ngan Hashemites bisa ngalereskeun breach, nu geus robah jadi beuki getihan jeung pait dina dasawarsa panganyarna.

"Tapi Yordania henteu persis ékonomi pasar bébas," obyék Michael, urut murid Saifedean.

"Kami ngan ukur kedah nginum pil jeruk anu Mulia ku kituna anjeunna mareuman parlemén sareng menteri sareng sadaya perencana pusat, ngan ukur tentara sareng pangadilan karajaan!" anjeunna ngagero, nambahan: "Sésa daérah bakal hoyong ngagabung ka Hashemites."

CEDARS DEWA

Back in the car, days of discussion appear to have finally piqued Ibrahim’s interest in Bitcoin.

We’re on our way to the Shrine of Our Lady of Lebanon, fighting stop-and-go traffic en route to the nearby national monument when his questions begin to pour forth. Should he do anything with the “other cryptocurrencies?” What does it mean when we say “China banned Bitcoin"

He’s been busy Googling since we met, and while he was formerly impressed by a speech Saifedean gave in May, he’s on the sidelines with no money invested in bitcoin.

Pangakuan Ibrahim janten langkung héran nalika anjeunna nyarios yén kalolobaan artosna macét dina rekening bankna, sadayana teu tiasa diaksés kusabab wates ditarikna.

It’s something Saifedean just can’t seem to understand. On leaving university life in 2019, he’d immediately convert his severance pay into bitcoin. (He even sent his sister-in-law to the bank directly with his dealer, so as not to waste any time.) Factoring capital controls, he’d take a 40% cut on the payment, but says the gains in bitcoin have made up for it.

"Ieu sapertos [GIF] George Clooney nalika anjeunna ngajauhan tina ledakan," saur anjeunna. "Éta pencét 3,000 [liras kana dolar], teras angka-angka na turun hiji-hiji."

Engké, urang ngaliwat tangkal Natal panggedéna di Libanon nalika paguneman diteruskeun.

Aaron masih usik Saif ngeunaan parasaan na on Big Oil, nyobian sangkan anjeunna ngaku aya hal kayaning "éksternalitas négatip" yén manusa butuh pamaréntah pikeun mantuan ngajawab.

SAIFEDEAN:

Éta aya dina kaayaan dimana hak milik teu didefinisikeun ogé.

Harun:

Leres, tapi saha anu gaduh lapisan ozon? 

IBRAHIM: 

(tiis) Naon fiat? 

The question is so innocent it almost doesn’t register, and I take the bullet as Saif and Aaron turn back, lost in a battle of egos running deep. The list of talking points that follows feels like a greatest hits of Saifedean’s work — the mobility problem with gold, how and why paper notes replaced it, and why bitcoin is now the best way to move value across time and space.

It’s a testament to his influence, but also to the difficulty of ever really explaining Bitcoin fully. The deeper you go, the more questions always seem to remain.

IBRAHIM: 

My cousin told me recently there was a security upgrade... who does that? 

RIZZO: 

[Balik deui] Hehehehe Saif, saha anu ngalakukeun éta? 

SAIFEDEAN: 

Upami anjeun ngajalankeun kode, anjeun mutuskeun kode anu anjeun pikahoyong. Anjeun tiasa mutuskeun naon waé, tapi éta ngan ukur tiasa dianggo upami anjeun henteu ngarobih nanaon. 

Harun: 

But it did change... 

Obrolanna karasa lungse ayeuna, dugi ka jalan-jalan ngageterkeun mobil, aliran kutukan Arab anu nuturkeun sigana ampir sapertos istirahat terapi.

Dina shock kana indra nu kieu, abdi teu bisa nulungan tapi heran ngeunaan preferensi waktu urang, lamun urang geus lapsed jauh teuing kana complacency sorangan, teuing pasti sababaraha klimaks kabeungkeut lumangsung.

Dina solidaritas sareng sentimen, kuring mutuskeun pikeun ngaleungitkeun perencanaan sentral kuring sorangan, naroskeun ka Saifedean kumaha anjeunna hoyong mungkas tulisan éta. "Hookers, kokain, tempur? Anjeun hoyong ningali pengedar narkoba gelut di Bakka?" anjeunna responds.

Fate intervenes when, just down the street from our destination, he asks me abruptly, “Oh, so did you sell your bitcoin yesterday?”

Kuring balik deui jeung ngabejaan dongéng. Katémbong reuwasna dina beungeut Saif, panonna lénglang, sungutna ngabeubeutkeun.

SAIFEDEAN: 

Éta cara hanjelu pikeun mungkas carita.

Urang ayeuna nuju di tempat tujuan, ngadadak silih sasalaman.

Karasa kosong nalika mobil ngagulung. Saolah-olah sanggeus jadi loba swings pedang manic, banteng hébat geus tungtungna getihan, sarta kami ditinggalkeun diuk kalawan sababaraha salah hébat sarta sobering.

NO SAD ENDINGS 

Teu lila sanggeus éta kami deui di hotél, sarta kuring leungit ningali ombak lapping kana halimun sakumaha Ibrahim giliran subjek pembayaran.

Abdi kaluar tina dollar ayeuna tapi angka hiji ATM bisa jadi deukeut. Mun euweuh nu sejenna, eta bisa jadi set up pikeun ending sejen, caper sejen, a quest final nu bisa dasi tungtung ragged tina lalampahan nu geus seemed mungkas abruptly, catetan palsu struck dina mobil masih ringing.

Kuring ampir teu ngadéngé kecap sabab anjeunna tungtungna megatkeun tiiseun.

"Kuring bakal ngalakukeun éta," saur Ibrahim, saolah-olah anjeunna masih ngayakinkeun dirina. Kecap-kecapna gancang, hushed, dipasangkeun kalayan jenis seuri stowaway.

Some minutes later he’s marveling as bits fly through cyberspace, and Bitcoin, that great central bank in the sky, reassigns our private keys, the soft magic making what was mine his, for all time, forever, or as long as we can hold it.

Ieu pemberontakan leutik ngalawan dunya fiat, pasti.

Di luar aya peuting, tetep aya bank badag, prajurit timer penting, sarta sakabeh tentacles tina ngembangna, encroaching kaayaan global. Tapi éta momen-momen ieu anu jelas yén aspirasi urang langkung seueur tibatan jawaban urang anu paling penting.

"Wah," ceuk Ibrahim, neuteup ka handap kana cahaya teleponna.

Anjeun tiasa ningali éta sadetik - cerminan dina sagala ATM, bank sentral peupeus, argumen leuwih tagihan ripped - pamahaman yen eta kabeh bisa jadi gampang musnah jauh.

sumber aslina: Bitcoin majalah