By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 year ago - Waktos maca: 5 menit
Market Mayhem and Calling the Bitcoin Price Bottom
A contrarian take on the current market structure suggesting that the bitcoin bottom is near and the Federal Reserve will reverse its hawkish course.
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apelSpotifyGoogleLibsynmendungIn this episode of the “Fed Watch” podcast, Christian Keroles and I, along with the livestream crew, discuss macro developments relevant to bitcoin. Topics include the recent 50 bps rate hike from the Fed, a consumer price index (CPI) preview — the episode was recorded live on Tuesday, before the CPI data was released — and a discussion on why owners’ equivalent rent is often misunderstood. We wrap up with an epic discussion of the bitcoin harga.
This could be a pivotal episode in the history of “Fed Watch,” because I’m on the record saying that bitcoin is “in the neighborhood” of the bottom. This is in stark contrast to the mainstream uber-bearishness in the market right now. In this episode, I rely heavily on charts that didn’t always line up during the video. Those charts are provided below with a basic explanation. You can see the sakabeh dek slide nu kuring dipaké di dieu.
“Fed Watch” is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the traditional financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Federal Reserve Jeung Nomer Ékonomi Pikeun AS
Dina bagan kahiji ieu, kuring nunjuk ka dua hikes laju panungtungan Fed dina bagan S&P 500. Kuring nulis dina a pos blog minggu ieu, “What I'm trying to show is that the rate hikes themselves are not the Federal Reserve’s primary tool. Talking about hiking rates is the primary tool, along with fostering the belief in the magic of the Fed.” Remove the arrows and try to guess where the announcements were.
(sumber)Sami lumaku pikeun bagan salajengna: emas.
(sumber)Lastly, for this section, we looked at the bitcoin chart with quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) plotted. As you can see, in the era with “No QE,” from 2015 to 2019, bitcoin experienced a 6,000% bull market. This is almost the exact opposite of what one would expect. To summarize this section, Fed policy has little to do with major swings in the market. Swings come from the unknowable complex ebbs and flows of the market. The Federal Reserve only tries to smooth the edges.
(sumber)CPI Mayhem
Hésé nyerat kasimpulan anu saé pikeun bagian podcast ieu, sabab kami hirup hiji dinten sateuacan data turun. Dina podcast, kuring nutupan Eurozone CPI bade rada luhur, mun 7.5% dina April sataun-leuwih-taun (YoY), kalawan laju bulan-leuwih-bulan robah muterna ti staggering 2.5% dina Maret nepi ka 0.6% dina April. Éta mangrupikeun carita anu paling seueur jalma anu leungit dina CPI: parobihan bulan-bulan gancang ngalambatkeun dina April. Kuring ogé nutupan ramalan CPI pikeun AS dina podcast, tapi ayeuna, urang gaduh data teuas pikeun April. CPI headline AS turun tina 8.5% dina Maret ka 8.3% dina April. Parobahan bulan-ka-bulan turun tina 1.2% dina Maret ka 0.3% dina April. Deui, turunna badag dina laju kanaékan CPI. CPI tiasa pisan ngabingungkeun nalika ningali angka YoY.
Sigana mah inflasi dina April diukur dina 8.3%, nalika kanyataanna, éta diukur ngan ukur 0.3%.
CPI sataun-leuwih-taun, bulan-leuwih-bulan CPI (sumber)Next topic we cover in the podcast is rent. I very often hear misunderstandings of the CPI measure on shelter and specifically owners’ equivalent rent (OER). For starters, it’s very hard to measure the impact of increases to housing costs on consumers in general. Most people do not move very often. We have 15- or 30-year fixed-rate mortgages that are not affected at all by current home prices. Even rental leases are not renewed every month. Contracts typically last a year, sometimes more. Therefore, if a few people pay higher rents in a certain month, that does not affect the average person’s shelter expenses or the average landlord’s revenue.
Taking current market prices for rentals or homes is a dishonest way to estimate the average cost of housing, yet not doing so is the most often-quoted critique of the CPI. Caveat: I’m not saying CPI measures inflation (money printing); it measures an index of prices to maintain your standard of living. Of course, there are many layers of subjectivity in this statistic. OER more accurately estimates changes in housing costs for the average American, smooths out volatility and separates pure shelter costs from investment value.
Bitcoin Analisis Harga
The rest of the episode is talking about the current bitcoin price action. I start my bullish rant by showing the hash rate chart and talking about why it is a lagging and confirming indicator. With the hash rate at all-time highs and consistently increasing, this suggests that bitcoin is fairly valued at its current level.
Bitcoin hash rate (sumber) Sajarah bitcoin drawdowns (sumber)Taun-taun ayeuna parantos katingal langkung pondok, unjuk rasa anu langkung alit sareng anu langkung pondok, drawdown anu langkung alit. Bagan ieu nunjukkeun yén 50% drawdowns mangrupikeun normal anyar, tibatan 85%.
Now, we get into some technical analysis. I concentrate on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) because it is very basic and a fundamental building block of many other indicators. Monthly RSI is at levels that typically signal cycle bottoms. Currently, the monthly metric shows that bitcoin is more oversold than at the bottom of the corona crash in 2020. Weekly RSI is equally as oversold. It is as low as the bottom of the corona crash in 2020, and before that, the bottom of the bear market in 2018.
Indéks Sieun sareng Karanjingan ogé pisan low. Ukuran ieu nunjukkeun "Sieun Ékstrim" anu biasana didaptarkeun di handapeun relatif sareng dina 10, hubungan pikeun rating panghandapna saprak kacilakaan COVID-19 taun 2020.
(sumber)Kasimpulanana, argumen kontrarian (bullish) kuring nyaéta:
Bitcoin is already at historic lows and could bottom at any moment. The global economy is getting worse and bitcoin is counterparty-free, sound money, so it should behave similarly to 2015 at the end of QE.The Fed will be forced to reverse its narrative in the coming months which could relieve downward pressure on stocks.Bitcoin is closely tied to the U.S. economy at this point, and the U.S. will weather the coming recession better than most other places.Éta ngalakukeun pikeun minggu ieu. Hatur nuhun ka pamiarsa jeung listeners. Upami anjeun resep kana eusi ieu mangga ngalanggan, marios sareng bagikeun!
Ieu pos tamu ku Ansel Lindner. Pamadegan dikedalkeun sagemblengna sorangan sarta teu merta ngagambarkeun pamadegan BTC Nyarita atawa Bitcoin majalah.
sumber aslina: Bitcoin majalah