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Alesan Nyata Pikeun Bitcoin Kacilakaan Harga Diungkabkeun, Henteu GBTC: Arthur Hayes
In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, articulates a contrarian perspective on the recent downturn in Bitcoin’s price, refuting the mainstream narrative that attributes the decline to outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Instead, Hayes titik to macroeconomic maneuvers and monetary policy shifts as the real drivers behind Bitcoinvolatility.
Kawijakan Moneter Jeung Réaksi Pasar
Hayes kickstarts analisa na ku shedding lampu dina shift strategis panganyarna Perbendaharaan AS urang injeuman, kaputusan ngumumkeun ku Janet Yellen on November 1. Pangsi ieu nuju RUU perbendaharaan (T-bills) parantos nyababkeun suntikan likuiditas anu ageung, maksa dana pasar uang pikeun ngalihkeun investasina tina Program Reverse Repo Fed (RRP) ka T-bills ieu, nawiskeun hasil anu langkung luhur.
Hayes nyarioskeun pentingna gerakan ieu, nyatakeun, "Yellen ngalaksanakeun ku ngagentoskeun injeuman jabatanna ka T-bills, sahingga nambihan likuiditas ratusan milyaran dolar ayeuna." Sanajan kitu, anjeunna kontras ieu manuver finansial tangible jeung retorika Federal Reserve ngeunaan motong suku hareup jeung tapering of tightening kuantitatif (QT), nunjuk kaluar yén diskusi ieu teu ditarjamahkeun kana stimulus moneter sabenerna.
While the traditional financial markets, particularly the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, responded positively to these developments, Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s recent price trajectory serves as a more accurate barometer of the underlying economic currents. He remarks, “The real smoke alarm for the direction of dollar liquidity, Bitcoin, is throwing a cautionary sign.”
Anjeunna nyatet turunna cryptocurrency tina puncakna sareng ngahubungkeunana sareng turun naek dina ngahasilkeun Perbendaharaan AS 2 taun, nunjukkeun hubungan ékonomi anu langkung jero dina padamelan. “Sarua jeung Bitcoin’s local high, 2-taun ngahasilkeun Khazanah AS pencét low lokal 4.14% dina pertengahan Januari jeung ayeuna marching luhur, "Hayes remarked.
Dissecting True Reasons Behind The Bitcoin Dip
Addressing the narrative surrounding GBTC, Hayes emphatically dismisses the notion that outflows from GBTC are the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movements. He clarifies, “The argument for Bitcoin’s recent dump is the outflows ti Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). That argument is bogus because when you net the outflows from GBTC against the inflows into the newly listed kokotor Bitcoin ETFs, hasilna nyaéta, ti 22 Januari, aliran bersih $820 juta.
Realisasi ieu mindahkeun fokus kana mékanisme ékonomi anu dimaénkeun. The crux argumen Hayes urang perenahna di antisipasi sabudeureun éta Program Pembiayaan Jangka Bank (BTFP)'s béakna jeung hesitancy Federal Reserve urang pikeun nyaluyukeun suku bunga ka rentang nu bakal alleviate galur finansial on leutik, non-Teuing-Big-to-Gagal (TBTF) bank.
Hayes ngajelaskeun, "Nepi ka tingkat diréduksi jadi tingkat anu kasebat, teu aya deui jalan bank-bank ieu tiasa salamet tanpa dukungan pamaréntah anu disayogikeun ku BTFP." Anjeunna ngaramalkeun krisis mini-finansial anu bakal muncul upami BTFP lirén, anu anjeunna yakin bakal maksa Federal Reserve pikeun ngalih tina rétorika kana tindakan anu nyata-nyaéta, pamotongan suku bunga, panurunan tina QT, sareng berpotensi janten resumption of easing kuantitatif ( QE).
"Abdi percanten Bitcoin will dip before the BTFP renewal decision on March 12th. I didn’t expect it to happen so soon, but I think Bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000. As the SPX and NDX dump due to a mini financial crisis in March, Bitcoin will rise as it will front-run the eventual conversion of rate cuts and money printing talk on behalf of the Fed into the action of pressing that Brrrr button,” Hayes writes.
Dagang Strategis Gerak Dina Pasar Turbulén
Dina sawangan anu ngungkabkeun kana strategi dagang taktisna, Hayes ngabagi pendekatan pikeun nganapigasi bentang pasar anu huru-hara. Anjeunna discloses posisi na, kaasup meuli nempatkeun jeung adjustment strategis of Holdings BTC na. Anjeunna nyimpulkeun:
A 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 is $33,600. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin forms support between $30,0000 to $35,000. That is why I purchased 29 March 2024 $35,000 strike puts. […] Bitcoin and crypto in general are the last freely traded markets globally. As such, they will anticipate changes in dollar liquidity before the manipulated TradFi fiat stock and bond markets. Bitcoin is telling us to look for Yellen and not Talkin’.
Dina waktos pencét, BTC traded dina $39,963.
sumber aslina: NewsBTC