By Bitcoin Majalah - 5 sababaraha bulan kapengker - Waktos Bacaan: 3 menit
Kasalahan Satoshi
Satoshi Nakamoto is God and Bitcoin’s design is perfect. Or is it? There's one feature of the protocol that keeps bugging me: the Halvening (halving, whatever). I'm sure Naka thought this over. His first Bitcoin must have had an incremental reduction of the supply per block. But the final design, the one we know, cuts the block reward in half only after every 210,000 blocks (every four years). Obviously, this decision had a tremendous impact on price action, volatility, and adoption. Unfortunately, it’s not the best supply scheme. Let's explore.
Halvings
Bitcoin, as we know it, has a supply schedule adhering to the following hard coded rule:
Rumus matematik panurunan suplai.Pikeun non-mathies, ieu téh jumlah (Σ) sadaya koin anyar disadiakeun per blok ti peluncuran nepi ka 32 halvings ka hareup. Salila mimiti 210,000 blok (abdi = 0) ganjaran blok 50 (50 / (20) = 50/1 = 50). Halving kahiji kieu (i = 1) jeung ganjaran blok pikeun salajengna 210,000 blok dipotong dina satengah (50/21 = 50/2 = 25). Ieu terus nepi ka siklus halving 32nd geus réngsé kira-kira taun 2140 jeung total suplai maxes kaluar dina praktis 21 juta koin.
This choice of supply schedule has consequences. Because the supply is suddenly reduced by 50% overnight, it shocks the market. As demand remains unchanged, the price adjusts upward, as Bitcoin is now twice as scarce. The rapid price surge leads to a hype cycle, drawing media attention, attracting new adopters.
The halvening is Bitcoin's in-built media campaign. But it has a cost. Because the price is so volatile, the price surges into a blow-off top, and the rollercoaster dives back into the abyss. This makes Bitcoin not ideal for most where drawdowns of 75-85% are normal.
Bitcoin's main feature is its nyimpen nilai (SoV) function, making it really different from other innovations. If you FOMOed in at the top, the store of value function will only be realized four years later. The only way a new hodler will hold on to their Bitcoin is when they thoroughly understand the protocol, trust the code, and know the price will recover and take off after the next halving. This is a level of abstraction and conviction most prospective adopters don't have. Negative short term price movements heavily detract from its SoV proposition. It takes months to properly understand Bitcoin (and fiat).
Nanging, kalayan téknologi anu sanés, kauntungan anu cukup jelas saatos dianggo munggaran. TV, telepon, email, gelombang mikro mangrupikeun conto anu saé pikeun inovasi dimana nilai ditanggap dina menit munggaran.
To stress the impact of perception, look for instance at the adoption of the color TV versus the computer. Television, though earlier, is steeper. Because its value was immediately experienced. The computer was a far more obscure device. So, there are exceptions in the chart countering the trend. It's important to ask why. Bitcoin can be an outlier too! Value perception plays a large role in the steepness of each individual curve. It’s one of the main drivers of technology diffusion according to Everett Rogers who first studied these curves. This renders adoption narratives like “It’s like the Internet in 1994,” or “innovation adoption curves are getting steeper over time,” less convincing.
Lantaran kitu, patarosan: Naha jadwal suplai 4 taun ayeuna idéal?
Incremental Supply Réduksi
Alternatifna basajan: ISR. Taya halvings, tapi unggal blok bakal boga panurunan saeutik dina ganjaran blok. Janten blok 0 bakal ngagaduhan 50 BTC. Blok 1 bakal boga 49.9999, jsb A fungsi linier teu idéal, tapi aya pilihan séjén.
The ISR schedule won't prevent volatility, but it would surely decrease it, as there are no more pent up shocks to the market. Such a change will turn Bitcoin into a more stable asset, gradually increasing its price over time.
Would the media hype and attention be reduced, then? Possibly. But how many more people would have stayed for the ride? Where’s the optimum point between these two schedules? It’s imaginable that ISR could have improved adoption. The halving cycle might largely obfuscate Bitcoin’s perceived value.
In the future, when we can test Bitcoin out on other planets, or spin up another simulation, we’ll run this experiment. I expect the halving is not the optimal design. Satoshi has made a mistake...in retrospect.
Ieu tulisan tamu ku Bitcoin Corétan. Pamadegan dikedalkeun sagemblengna sorangan sarta teu merta ngagambarkeun pamadegan BTC Inc atanapi Bitcoin Majalah.
sumber aslina: Bitcoin majalah