Ku NewsBTC - 1 year ago - Reading Time: 4 menit
Ringkesan Acara Contagion Anu Dibawa di Pasar Bear
Are we in a bear market? Opinions vary, but it certainly feels like one. Markets across the board and across the world are in the red, and the bitcoin and crypto ones are no exception. If you’ve been paying attention, you know how all of this happened, but a refresher course wouldn’t hurt. Using ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Monthly report as a guide, let’s go through the tragic sequence of events and evaluate the bitcoin market as it stands.
Numutkeun ka ARK, jalan ka pasar biruang sapertos kieu:
"Dimimitian ku Terra runtuhna dina awal Méi, contagion sumebar ka lenders crypto utama kaasup Blockfi, Celsius, Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, contributing kana insolvency tina dana pager hirup sakali kacida-dihormat, Three Arrows Capital (3AC). Kusabab runtuhna Terra, total kapitalisasi pasar crypto parantos turun ~ $ 640 milyar.
Nevertheless, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. “Promisingly, however, recent fallout (Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, Finblox) appears lower in magnitude compared to Terra, Celsius, and 3AC.” That doesn’t mean the end of the bear market is near, nor that capitulation is already over. Especially if the Mt. Gox victims receive the rumored 150K BTC.
First, let’s follow ARK as they analyze two of the main players in this drama. Then, let’s check the stats of the bitcoin market to see if we can find signs and clues that point out to the end of the capitulation stage. SPOILER ALERT: The jury is still out on that one. Some signs point to an early end, others to further downside. Aren’t bear markets fun?
Celsius And The Death SpiralNalika Terra murag, bumi ngageter. The Luna Foundation Guard dijual ampir sakabéh cagar 80K BTC maranéhanana nyoba membela patok UST kana dollar. Kajadian ieu tiasa janten katalis pikeun pasar biruang. Nu awon éta acan datang, sanajan. Sababaraha lembaga anu sakali-dihormat pisan kakeunaan Terra ngaliwatan protokol Anchor na, sareng runtuhna UST ngirimkeun sadayana kana spiral maot anu masih kénéh lumangsung.
According to ARK, “Celsius froze withdrawals on June 12th in response to significant outflows. Its DeFi debt outstanding is $631 million but the magnitude of its nonDeFi exposure is unclear.” There was still hope for its clients, as the company paid several loans. However, Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, leaving them all high and dry.
What really happens to the coins you deposit to reputable lending platforms. pic.twitter.com/RQh7jfrrNZ
— softsimon (@softsimon_) July 13, 2022
Kapala Perwira Komersial di Choise.com, Andrey Diyakonov, nganalisis kaayaan pikeun NewsBTC:
"Pikeun nempatkeun hal-hal kana sudut pandang, urang kedah ngabalikkeunana, sareng naroskeun, sabaraha tina aksi harga panganyarna dina pasar anu dipangaruhan ku atanapi langsung diciptakeun ku tindakan Celsius? Naon mana sabudeureun salawasna datang sabudeureun. Éta langkung ironis kumargi laporan anu dipercaya yén ditarikna Celsius mangrupikeun salah sahiji anu ngirimkeun posisi UST sareng Terra ka handap liang kelenci pikeun milari dimana handapna.
Our team covered that particular claim and the company’s response.
Three Arrows Capital And The Bear MarketLajeng, aya "Three Arrows Capital (3AC), dana pager hirup crypto anu dianggap pisan anu dikabarkan ngatur $ 18 milyar dina puncakna, katingalina bangkrut saatos nyandak seueur teuing ngungkit." Éta numutkeun ARK, anu ogé nyarios, "Tétéla, 3AC nyandak kaleuwihan ngungkit pikeun nyobian sareng pulih karugian. Creditors na kalebet pamaén utama dina industri sapertos Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager, sareng FTX.
Sadayana perusahaan iwal FTX sigana bakal hitung turun ka punah.
BTC price chart for 07/15/2022 on Velocity | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com Is The Bear Market Just Beginning Or About To End?Is the bottom in? Opinions vary. In a section titled “Market Contagion Sets Bitcoin Into Capitulation,” ARK analyzes all of the indicators and can’t reach a final conclusion. The numbers are extremely interesting, though.
“Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general cost basis of the market (realized price), the cost bases of long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and its 2017 peak.”Ieu "ngusulkeun kaayaan anu oversold," anu mangrupikeun tanda anu saé. Tapi…
"Sacara sajarah, handap global lumangsung nalika MVRV Panyekel jangka pondok ngaleuwihan MVRV Panyekel jangka panjang. Kaayaan éta henteu acan kacumponan, nunjukkeun poténsi anu langkung handap. ”"Saratna teu acan kapendak," tapi caket. Deukeut pisan.
"Bulan ieu, panambang ngahasilkeun revenues ngan 45% tina éta pikeun dua belas bulan panungtungan, breaching a bangbarung nu biasana correlates kalawan handap pasar."Miners who didn’t practice proper risk management have been selling at the present low levels. Miners who know what they’re doing will keep holding until we come out of the bear market. The question is, how many companies are in the first group and haven’t sold just yet?
“Net realized losses in bitcoin recently reached a 2-year low, breaching 0.5% for only the fourth time since 2013.”Dina sajarahna, ieu nunjukkeun kapitulasi parantos réngsé. Atawa éta?
"Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss has hit a 3-year low, highlighting that its current market value is nearly 17% lower than that of its aggregate cost basis. Historically, global bottoms have formed when losses hit 25%+.”Upami urang badé ngahontal 25%, éta hartosna masih aya jalan anu panjang.
Naha pasar biruang nembé mimiti atanapi badé mungkas? Datana teu jelas. Tapi kapitulasi sigana parantos caket, anu bakal janten léngkah munggaran dina arah anu leres.
Featured Image by Marc-Olivier Jodoin on Unsplash | Charts by TradingViewsumber aslina: NewsBTC