The Crypto Contagion Intensifies Jeung leuwih Domino ragrag

By Bitcoin Majalah - 1 year ago - Waktos maca: 4 menit
Kemis, 17 Nov 2022 4:00

The Crypto Contagion Intensifies Jeung leuwih Domino ragrag

Tingali kana domino poténsial salajengna dina contagion pribumi crypto, sareng ngabandingkeun tingkat ditarikna sajarah panganyarna.

Di handap ieu mangrupakeun excerpt ti édisi panganyarna tina Bitcoin Majalah Pro, Bitcoin Majalah urang newsletter pasar premium. Janten diantara anu pangheulana nampi wawasan ieu sareng anu sanés dina ranté bitcoin analisis pasar langsung ka koropak anjeun, ngalanggan kiwari.

Kami ayeuna nuju di tengah kontagion industri sareng panik pasar. Sanaos FTX sareng Alameda parantos murag, seueur deui pamaén dina dana, produsén pasar, bursa, panambang sareng usaha sanésna bakal nuturkeun. Ieu mangrupikeun playbook anu sami sareng anu urang tingali dina kacilakaan sateuacana anu dipicu ku Luna, kecuali anu ieu bakal langkung mangaruhan kana pasar. Ieu cleansing ditangtoskeun jeung washout tina misallocation ibukota, spekulasi jeung ngungkit kaleuleuwihan nu datangna jeung pasang liquidity ékonomi global balik kaluar.

Kitu cenah, dulur gancang luncat dina domino hareup ragrag. Ieu alam. Kalolobaan informasi sabudeureun neraca jeung ngungkit disumputkeun dina sistem teu kanyahoan bari informasi anyar jeung kamajuan sacara real waktos anu ngalir kaluar unggal satengah jam, sigana. Bursa aya dina sorotan ayeuna sareng pasar ningali unggal gerakan sareng transaksina. Teu aya kamungkinan bursa anu bakal parah sareng dana klien sapertos FTX sareng Alameda, tapi urang henteu terang bursa mana anu tiasa atanapi henteu tiasa salamet dina ngajalankeun bank.

Sapertos anu dipidangkeun ku réaksi pasar, token Cronos (CRO) Crypto.com, turun 55% dina saminggu sateuacan kéngingkeun lega dina dinten kamari. Aya trend parabolic of withdrawals - a bank run - dina bursa salila dua poé panungtungan kalawan CEO ngalakonan rounds média pikeun assure everyone yén withdrawals keur ngolah rupa sarta yén maranéhna bakal salamet. 

Token Huobi (HT) nuturkeun jalur anu sami, turun ampir 60% dina dua minggu ka pengker. Huobi nembe disadiakeun maranéhna daptar aset dina platform, némbongkeun sabudeureun $900 juta di HT milik duanana pamaké Huobi Global sarta Huobi. Henteu écés sabaraha persentase tina $900 juta anu dipiboga ku Huobi Global, tapi éta potongan rambut. Bursa madhab geus scrambling nyadiakeun sababaraha versi bukti cadangan dina usaha nenangkeun pasar. 

Dina pangartian bitcoin leaving exchanges, it’s been a similar trend for the last three major market panic events: the March 2020 COVID crash, the Luna crash and now the FTX and Alameda crash. Bitcoin flies off exchanges as exchange and counterparty risk becomes priority No. 1 to mitigate. Overall, this is a welcome trend with over 122,000 bitcoin flowing out of exchanges over the last 30 days. It’s the lack of transparency, trust and excessive leverage in centralized institutions that have fueled the latest fall.

Having more of the bitcoin supply in self-custody is the way to counter this risk in the future. That said, assuming all of this bitcoin is going to self-custody and is intended to not come back to the market is a broad, unlikely assumption. Likely, market participants are taking whatever precaution they can regardless if their intent is to store this bitcoin long-term versus sending it back to an exchange later on.

In previous times, bitcoin flowing in and out of exchanges was more of a signal for price, but as more paper bitcoin, wrapped bitcoin on other chains and bitcoin financial products have grown, bitcoin exchange flows are more reflective of current user trends despite the last two major exchange outflows marking local price bottoms. Just 12.02% of bitcoin supply lives on exchanges today, down from its 2020 high of 17.29%. Although we’re only halfway through the month, November 2022 is shaping up to be the largest outflow month in history. 

The silver lining of the industry’s largest-ever exchange collapse is that a broad sense of distrust in counterparties and self-sovereign practices are set to increase among buyers of bitcoin going forward. While many have been speaking for over a decade on the importance of personal custody for the world’s first decentralized digital bearer asset, it often fell on deaf ears, as financial institutions like FTX seemed credible and trustworthy. Fraud assuredly can change that.

This dynamic, and the potential for greater amounts of contagion among the crypto space, has users fleeing to personal custody, with this past week bringing in the largest week-over-week decline in bitcoin on exchanges at -115,200 BTC.

Interestingly enough, this sell-off was unique in the sense that unlike previous sell-offs in recent years, it wasn’t triggered by a flood of bitcoin being sent to exchanges, instead moreso by an implosion of illiquid crypto collateral without many (or in the case of FTT, any) natural buyers.

Dibikeun fokus pisan kami dina resiko contagion crypto-pribumi leuwih genep bulan saméméhna, kami kacida nyarankeun pamiarsa urang diajar ngeunaan sarta ningali kana prospek tina hak asuh diri; lamun euweuh nu sejenna, pikeun betah pikiran.

final Catetan

"Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts." - Satoshi Nakamoto dina FTX

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