By Bitcoin Magasin - 2 år sedan - Lästid: 8 minuter
The HODL Model: Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Is Outpacing Issuance
The HODL model hypothesizes that bitcoin has crossed an inflection point, with the asset's illiquid supply outpacing the rate of new supply issuance.
Artikel av Den rationella roten med skrift kompletterat med Sam Rule.
Abstrakt
The “HODL model hypothesis” is that bitcoin has crossed a historic inflection point where the asset’s illiquid supply is outpacing the rate of new supply issuance. Future halvings with lower supply issuance will only exacerbate this divergence.
Illiquid supply as a percentage of circulating supply will grow in a parabolic fashion as bitcoin’s digital scarcity drives investor behavior towards store of value as the dominant use case. As a result, illiquid supply will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036.
Ansvarsfriskrivning: Detta är en marknadshypotes och inte investeringsrådgivning; det ska inte behandlas som sådant.
Vad är Iliquid Supply?
It’s essential to understand the liquidity profile of bitcoin’s circulating supply. Quantifying supply across different levels of liquidity helps us better understand market supply dynamics, investor sentiment and bitcoins prisbana.
Liquidity is quantified as the extent to which an entity spends their bitcoin. A HODLer that never sells has a liquidity value of 0 whereas someone who buys and sells bitcoin all the time has a value of 1. With this quantification, circulating supply can be broken down into three categories: highly liquid, liquid and illiquid supply.
Illiquid supply is defined as entities that hold over 75% of the bitcoin they take in. Highly-liquid supply is defined as entities that hold less than 25%. Liquid supply is in between.
Denna kvantifiering och analys av illikvida tillgångar[1] utvecklades av Rafael Schultze-Kraft, medgrundare och CTO för Glassnode.
The below chart shows the history of illiquid supply and circulating supply growth highlighting the average bitcoin added per day across each halving cycle. Since the third halving, illiquid supply growth has been outpacing circulating supply growth for the first time in bitcoin’s history, adding 1,694 bitcoin per day compared to 902 bitcoin per day. Illiquid supply bitcoin per day growth has accelerated 61.48% into this third halving epoch relative to the second halving, reversing a historic macro trend of decelerating, positive illiquid supply growth.
Illikvidt utbud som en procentandel av det totala utbudet
At the time of writing, illiquid supply accounts for 76.22% of all circulating supply totalling 14,452,208 bitcoin. This is the highest illiquid supply percentage of circulating supply since December 2017. After reaching a bottom in July 2019, bitcoin’s illiquid supply share has grown from 71.47%.
Även under bitcoin’s violent liquidations cascade and its 53.98% July 2021 drawdown from approximately $64,000 to below $30,000, illiquid supply share only fell to 74.49% from 76.01%. Over time, more of the circulating supply is finding its way into illiquid supply hands, i.e., investors who have shown that they are unlikely to part with the majority of their bitcoin.
HODL modell
Det har gjorts lite arbete för att modellera hur de framtida marknadseffekterna av en växande andel av illikvid utbud av cirkulerande utbud kan se ut. HODL-modellen syftar till att göra detta med hjälp av en logaritmisk ekvation, vilket ger oss en vändpunkt där tillväxten av illikvida tillgångar började överträffa tillväxten av nya emissioner. Ekvationen definieras nedan:
Modellresultaten och diagrammet nedan visar hur framtiden kan se ut om vi ska se andelen illikvida tillgångar fortsätta denna trend. Modellens brytpunkt inträffar vid den tredje halveringen, vilket närmar sig den historiska låga nivån i andelen illikvida tillgångar av cirkulerande utbud. Efter denna brytpunkt tar HODL-modellen ett konservativt tillvägagångssätt för att projektera illikvid utbudstillväxt och syftar till att fungera som en golvmodell.
By the next (or fourth) halving in 2024, the illiquid supply “floor” percentage will be 72.5% or 14.3 million bitcoin. By the sixth halving in 2032, illiquid supply “floor” percentage will be 77.5% or 16 million bitcoin.
Fallet för en vändpunkt
As bitcoin’s block reward will fall from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC and 1.5625 BTC over the next two halvings, there will be a significant reduction in new supply issuance. Approximately 164,000 new bitcoin will be issued per year during our fourth halving period, and approximately 82,000 will be issued per year during our fifth. This will result in approximately 984,000 BTC new supply issued over the next two halvings (roughly eight years).
År 2021 ökade tillgången på illikvida medel med 366,060 2020 BTC. År 837,430 ökade den med 588,412 2019 BTC och 31 XNUMX under XNUMX. Detta beräknas med hjälp av skillnaden i illikvid tillgång den XNUMX december varje år jämfört med föregående år. Vi skulle behöva uppleva en stor marknadsbeteendeförändring för att se det illikvida utbudet falla under det minskande nya utbudet under det kommande decenniet. Denna typ av skift skulle ogiltigförklara modellen.
A key reason for using the inflection point to model HODL behavior is because of the historical, exponential growth seen in long-term holder supply. Although long-term holder supply fluctuates significantly during cyclical tops and bottoms, the macro trend of growing long-term holder supply is evident over bitcoins livstid.
Efter att ett mynt har stått i 155 dagar eller cirka fem månader, blir det statistiskt osannolikt att det spenderas baserat på tidigare Glasssnode kort- och långtidshållaranalys[2]. This sets the threshold for long-term holder supply which has significant crossover with illiquid supply as both capture bitcoin HODLer behavior.
Diagrammet nedan visar den takt med vilken ny tillgång kommer i omlopp (genom blockbelöningen) och den takt med vilken cirkulerande tillgång blir långsiktig innehavare och/eller illikvid tillgång. Den markerade orange rutan verkar markera en botten av en 10-årig nedåtgående trend. Medan vi vet att nytt utbud som kommer in i cirkulationen kommer att fortsätta att minska ytterligare, ser det ut att uppstå en divergens vid vändpunkten.
Kommer illikvidtillförseln att närma sig 100 %?
Med Bitcoin’s primary use case being a store of value and the hard cap of 21 million, one could assume that illiquid supply will trend towards 100%. The HODL model projects that the entire supply of bitcoin will become illiquid by 2088 (the HODL model end point), but this is unrealistic as the 21 million bitcoin supply hard cap will be approached but never reached. By the seventh halving in 2036, the HODL model projects illiquid supply to reach 80%. The HODL model aims to be conserative in its estimates of illiquid supply share growth.
Modellen gör inga antaganden om betydande marknadsbeteendeförändringar eller framtida brytpunkter i ett minskande illikvidt utbud. Eftersom det illikvida utbudet närmar sig 100 % av det cirkulerande utbudet, vet vi inte vilket tryck nedåt som kan vända denna trend av illikvida utbudstillväxt.
One potential downward pressure is the growth of bitcoin’s use case as a medium of exchange, which could increase bitcoin’s supply liquidity profile. Likely a reason for a structural change in illiquid supply growth (or second inflection point) is a decrease in demand after hyperbitcoinization, when bitcoin absorbs most value in the world.
That said, illiquid supply can grow indefinitely as bitcoin is infinitely divisible. The Lightning Network allows for milli-satoshis to be sent while the smallest unit on-chain is only a satoshi. Even with dividing the supply that can be used for more liquid use cases down into smaller units, it’s still likely we see a potential second inflection point where illiquid supply growth slows down.
HODL Model Impact
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin’s digital scarcity. Liquid and highly-liquid supply will tighten as illiquid supply grows, leaving less bitcoin available on the market to acquire or trade.
New waves of demand that enter the market to acquire this declining available supply will then lead to exponential price increases. Exponential price increases will incentivize that some illiquid supply transition to liquid and highly-liquid supply as HODLers take profit, but this impact will be negligible relative to the overall impact of illiquid supply growth during bitcoin’s monetization phase.
This can be seen by looking at significant profit-taking periods in bitcoin’s history where illiquid supply had fluctuations but continued to grow emphasizing investors' overall long-term preference and view of the asset. The short-term decline in the illiquid supply share during July 2021, before resuming its upward trajectory, is one of those periods.
HODL-prismodellen
The HODL model predicts a conservative estimate of bitcoin’s available supply where illiquid supply follows the growth curve we saw above. Since illiquid supply share nears a low at the inflection point, a logical consequence would be for bitcoin price to follow an inverse s-curve pattern.
With tighter liquid and highly-liquid supply, we see high increases in price at the beginning of bitcoin’s lifetime and then moderate price increases near the third halving’s inflection point. As available supply tightens again, we should expect higher price increases to follow.
För att modellera detta beteende kan vi använda en exponentiell invers hyperbolisk[3] tangentmodell.
Wicked Smart Bitcoin skapade Bitcoin Stock2Fomo Hyperbolic Model[4] to show a potential model of bitcoin’s price during a fiat hyperinflation scenario.
We build further upon this model below to show bitcoin’s digital scarcity as the HODL price model. But instead of using a symmetric s-curve, we utilize the HODL model to create an asymmetric s-curve following the projections of illiquid supply.
Prismodellen tar inte hänsyn till framtida efterfrågan
Fiat inflation and an increasing illiquid supply share of circulating supply assumptions are the driving forces that create an inverse s-curve pattern. However, one of the HODL price model’s shortcomings is that it assumes a constant flow of demand for bitcoin’s available liquid and highly liquid supply.
New demand will not be a smooth constant resulting in the future bitcoin price to oscillate above and below the model’s predicted value. The model aims to take a more conservative stance on bitcoin’s price history.
Förlängningscykel
HODL-prismodellen utnyttjar HODL-modellens böjningspunkt i mitten. Böjningspunkten, som inträffade vid den tredje halveringen 2020, stödjer en betydande förändring av marknadsstrukturen som kan bidra till idén om att förlänga cyklerna.
Överflödet av vätske- och högvätsketillförsel nära vändpunkten (den flataste delen av s-kurvan) kan vara en orsak till den aktuella, relativa sidledes och varierande priseffekten jämfört med tidigare cykler.
Även om åtdragningscyklerna för vätske- och högvätsketillförsel återigen skulle kunna förkortas, är det kanske mer troligt att den minskande effekten av halveringscyklerna kommer att påverkas mindre. Detta kan resultera i mer naturliga boom/bust-cykler som varierar i längd baserat på andra katalysatorer och marknadsförhållanden.
The model results and chart below show the inverse s-curve pattern following the HODL model’s hypothesis and illiquid supply projections. Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, the HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards. The HODL price model projects bitcoin price to reach $1,000,000 near the fifth halving around 2028.
Referensprojekt
https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-liquid-supply/https://insights.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_hyperbolic_functionshttps://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1492511360193900547Detta är ett gästinlägg av The Rational Root. Åsikter som uttrycks är helt deras egna och återspeglar inte nödvändigtvis de från BTC Inc Bitcoin magazine.
Ursprunglig källa: Bitcoin magazine