By NewsBTC - 6 oy oldin - O'qish vaqti: 3 daqiqa
Bu eng yaxshisi Bitcoin Narx ko'rsatkichi hozirmi? Bilishi kerak bo'lgan tafsilotlar
Following recent geopolitical events, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin prices has once again come under scrutiny by market analysts. Here’s a comprehensive dive into the relationship and its implications.
The Gold And Bitcoin Korrelyatsiya
After the recent Israel-Hamas war, gold experienced a rapid uptick in its price. This shift interestingly mirrored movements in the Bitcoin market, emphasizing a revived correlation between the two assets. Skew, a reputable market analyst, shared his insights on X (formerly Twitter), ta'kidlaydi 11-oktabrda "korrelyatsiya 35 kunlik BTC davrlariga nisbatan ancha erkin qo'llaniladi + bu erda ikkala bozor o'rtasida narxlar uzilishi".
However, only days later, on October 16, he observed a potential “re-correlation” as both Bitcoin followed the latest gold rally. Today, the statement stands stronger with Skew’s latest Dushanba, “BTC va oltin korrelyatsiyasi hali ham mavjud. Oltin BTC uchun keyingi katta harakatga olib kelishi mumkin.
Yaqinda tushunchasi shared in the Onramp Weekly Roundup, Bitcoin analyst Dylan LeClair emphasized the implications of the ongoing selloff in government bonds. Rising costs for long-term financing directly influence the global cost of capital, offering a valuation yardstick for various assets.
Eng muhimi, xazina bozori global moliyaviy ekotizimning asosini tashkil qiladi. Uning hozirgi beqarorligi aktivlar narxiga bosim o'tkazishi va ilgari mavjud bo'lgan qarz aylanishini kuchaytirishi mumkin, bu esa AQShning fiskal holatiga xavf tug'dirishi mumkin. Bu beqaror davlat AQSh ma'muriyatining fiskal harakatlariga keskin qarama-qarshi bo'lib, LeKlerning so'zlariga ko'ra, "Oq uy KO'ZLARI 100 MILLIARD UKRAINA, ISROIL VA BORDER SO'RADI" kabi rejalardan dalolat beradi, bu esa fiskal cheklovlarning etishmasligidan dalolat beradi.
Oltin, haqiqiy hosil va o'zgaruvchan manzara
Vaziyatni yanada murakkablashtirgan holda, Nyu-York Federal zaxira bankining sobiq prezidenti Bill Dadli o'zining yaqinda Bloomberg nashrida hozirgi miqdoriy keskinlashuv (QT) tsiklining 2025 yil oxirigacha davom etishi ehtimolini ta'kidladi. Bu uzoq muddatli QT uzoq muddatli oshirishi mumkin. foiz stavkalari va xazina bozoridagi turbulentlik xavfi. Shunga qaramay, agar xazina bozorida jiddiy disfunktsiya namoyon bo'lsa, Federal rezerv QT traektoriyasini qayta ko'rib chiqishi mumkin.
Qizig'i shundaki, Rossiya-Ukraina mojarosidan keyin va Rossiyaning G7 zahiralari, oltin va real daromadlarining musodara qilinishi ularning tarixiy salbiy munosabatlariga shubha tug'dirib, atipik ijobiy korrelyatsiyani ko'rsatdi.
In this evolving geopolitical landscape where even G7 sovereign debt isn’t immune to confiscation, traditional ‘safe assets’ are being reevaluated. This uncertainty combined with the not-so-safe “risk free” yield from treasuries has bolstered gold’s position (and price) as a counter-risk monetary asset and may push Bitcoin on a similar trajectory.
LeClairga ko'ra:
This repositioning, however, isn’t limited to gold alone. Bitcoin, with its unique advantages and growing liquidity profile, is on a similar trajectory, albeit still in the very early stages of its monetization with a $500b market cap.
Eng yaxshi BTC narxi ko'rsatkichi?
Under these current conditions, the price of gold may be a leading indicator for the price of Bitcoin, assuming that the correlation between the two assets continues. This would imply that Bitcoin is classified as a “safe haven” asset like gold by a majority of investors, rather than a “risk asset”.
However, this view is not shared by all. James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, pointed out that the Bitcoin market has shifted its focus after the soxta yangiliklar regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. He deya ta'kidladi investorlar endi ETF ma'qullanishini makro kutishlarga nisbatan birinchi o'ringa qo'yishadi va bu Federal rezervning harakatlariga kamroq e'tibor berishadi.
Since the Coin Telegraph tweet mistake on a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval, Bitcoin prices have decoupled from December interest rate expectations – it seems like investors are solely focussed on the ETF approval now, and not what the FED does.
Matbuot vaqtida, Bitcoin 28,450 dollarga sotilgan.
Asl manba: newsbtc