By Bitcoin Tạp chí - 1 năm trước - Thời gian đọc: 3 phút
Người tiêu dùng đang trong tâm bão lạm phát
While many talking heads would like you to believe that inflation is slowing down, the current policies only serve to make the problems significantly worse.
Dưới đây là đoạn trích trực tiếp của Marty's Bent Số phát hành #1261: “CPI gây chấn động thị trường." Đăng ký nhận bản tin tại đây.
The August 2022 consumer price index (CPI) print was released on Sept. 13, 2022, and it came in at 8.3% year-over-year growth, and shocking all of the talking heads who were certain that inflation was due to slow down as all of the demand destruction the Federal Reserve has been attempting to manufacture would begin to hit the markets. Markets did not react well to the higher-than-expected print with all major indices falling around 4-5% across the board. What's worse, the reported figure of 8.3% seems to be severely underreporting the actual level of price inflation that consumers are experiencing at the moment.
I think it's safe to say that the basket of goods listed above can be considered essential goods to anyone attempting to live a life of relative comfort. When you see these numbers, it's hard not to be utterly insulted that the Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics would attempt to make you believe that prices have only risen 8.3%. What's even worse is that this year-over-year print is built on a relatively high base that was set in August 2021. If you freaks forget, inflation started rearing its ugly head summer 2021 and that August brought with it a 5.3% print. 3.3% higher than the Fed's historical 2% target.
Lạm phát được đo bằng CPI thông qua Cục Thống kê lao động.There are many inflation-splainers out there today who are trying to spin today's print as a positive, saying things like, “Month-over-month growth is basically flat. The inflation is starting to decelerate and we should see the full effects of demand destruction begin to take hold in the months ahead." Your Uncle Marty thinks this is extremely wishful thinking bordering on delusion. There are two particular factors that I think are being severely discounted; the draining of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and the fact that we are heading into winter.
The draining of the SPR has been helping to artificially tamper inflation at the pump. With the SPR set to be fully drained at some point next month, drilling teams being pushed to their limits here in the United States and the Biden administration dead set on not allowing any new drilling permits to be granted, the supply side of the oil and gas markets is going to experience a significant shock, which will serve to put upward pressure on gas prices. Couple that with the fact that we are headed into the fall and winter months where demand for energy begins to increase significantly as people begin to turn up the heat in their homes and travel more for the holidays, and it isn't hard to see that we may be in the eye of the inflation storm. This is only with a focus on energy prices.
As the world has come to find, energy prices, especially natural gas prices, are key inputs in the food supply chains. With prices rising significantly earlier this year during planting season, it should not shock people to see lagging food inflation hit the markets later in 2022 as well. To make matters worse, it seems that the U.S. is keen on escalating things with China over their encroachment on Taiwan's sovereignty.
Nhiều biện pháp trừng phạt hơn vào năm 2022 sẽ có tác dụng mạnh mẽ đối với người tiêu dùng. Nếu Mỹ quyết định tiếp tục áp dụng các biện pháp trừng phạt, điều này có thể làm trầm trọng thêm vấn đề lạm phát theo hai cách, khiến người Mỹ không thể tiếp cận khả năng sản xuất của Trung Quốc với chi phí đắt đỏ hơn hoặc/hoặc gây ra phản ứng của Trung Quốc bằng cách tăng cường hoạt động quân sự xung quanh Đài Loan, do đó khiến họ phải đối mặt với các biện pháp trừng phạt. thị trường quốc tế khó tiếp cận hơn với các chip máy tính quan trọng do TSMC sản xuất.
While many of the talking heads out there would like you to believe that inflation is slowing down, all I can see are things developing that will only serve to make the problems we're experiencing significantly worse. Believe it or not, we may be in the eye of the inflation hurricane.
Nguồn chính thức: Bitcoin Tạp chí