Bitcoin Faces The Liquidity Steamroller Of Global Markets

By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：4 分钟
20 年 2022 月 7 日星期四上午 00:XNUMX

Bitcoin Faces The Liquidity Steamroller Of Global Markets

市场最重要的因素之一是流动性。全球流动性的减少使资产类别跌至新低并摧毁了财富。

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流动性处于主导地位

By far, one of the most important factors in any market is liquidity — which can be defined in many different ways. In this piece, we cover some ways to think about global liquidity and how it impacts bitcoin.

流动性的一种高层观点是央行的资产负债表。由于央行已成为本国主权债务、抵押贷款支持证券和其他金融工具的边际买家，这为市场提供了更多流动性来购买风险曲线上进一步的资产。政府债券的卖方是另一种资产的买方。当系统拥有更多的储备、货币、资本等（无论如何描述）时，他们就必须去某个地方。

从很多方面来说，这导致了过去 12 年来全球资产估值的最大涨幅之一，恰逢量化宽松和债务货币化实验的新时代。今年早些时候，美国、中国、日本和欧盟的央行资产负债表达到了 31 万亿美元以上，比 10 年的水平增长了近 2003 倍。这已经是几十年来的增长趋势，但 2020 年的财政和货币政策在全球危机时期，政策将资产负债表推至创纪录水平。

Since earlier this year, we’ve seen a peak in central bank assets and a global attempt to wind down these balance sheets. The peak in the S&P 500 index was just two months prior to all of the quantitative tightening (QT) efforts we’re watching play out today. Although not the only factor that drives price and valuations in the market, bitcoin’s price and cycle has been affected in the same way. The annual rate-of-change peak in major central banks’ assets happened just weeks prior to bitcoin’s first push to new all-time highs around $60,000, back in March 2021. Whether it’s the direct impact and influence of central banks or the market’s perception of that impact, it’s been a clear macro driving force of all markets over the last 18 months. 

At a market cap of just fractions of global wealth, bitcoin has faced the liquidity steamroller that’s hammered every other market in the world. If we use the framework that bitcoin is a liquidity sponge (more so than other assets) — soaking in all of the excess monetary supply and liquidity in the system in times of crisis expansion — then the significant contraction of liquidity will cut the other way. Coupled with bitcoin’s inelastic illiquid supply profile of 77.15% with a vast number of HODLers of last resort, the negative impact on price is magnified much more than other assets.

One of the potential drivers of liquidity in the market is the amount of money in the system, measured as global M2 in USD terms. M2 money supply includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits and other liquid forms of currency. Both cyclical expansions in global M2 supply have happened during the expansions of global central bank assets and expansions of bitcoin 周期。

我们查看 bitcoin as a monetary inflation hedge (or liquidity hedge) rather than one against a “CPI” (or price) inflation hedge. Monetary debasement, more units in the system over time, has driven many asset classes higher. Yet, bitcoin is by far the best-designed asset in our view and one of the best-performing assets to counteract the future trend of perpetual monetary debasement, money supply expansion and central bank asset expansion.

目前尚不清楚美联储资产负债表的大幅缩减实际上能持续多久。我们只看到大约 2% 的减少 8.96万亿美元的资产负债表问题 处于巅峰状态。最终，我们认为扩大资产负债表是保持整个货币体系运转的唯一选择，但到目前为止，市场低估了美联储愿意采取的措施。

The lack of viable monetary policy options and the inevitability of this perpetual balance sheet expansion is one of the strongest cases for bitcoin’s long-run success. What else can central banks and fiscal policy makers do in future times of recession and crisis?

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原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志