Bitcoin Hash Rate Is Exploding Higher. What Are The

By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：4 分钟
8 年 2022 月 3 日星期六上午 00:XNUMX

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Bitcoin 哈希率呈爆炸式增长。对矿业股票有何影响？

Bitcoin’s hash rate has endured a series of significant price drawdowns only to emerge stronger than ever. We look at potential implications for bitcoin 矿工。

以下是最近一期的节选 Bitcoin 杂志专业版， Bitcoin 杂志 优质市场通讯。成为第一批获得这些见解和其他链上信息的人 bitcoin 市场分析直接发送到您的收件箱， 现在订阅.

哈希率创历史新高

Just two months ago, the 2022 expansion in Bitcoin hash rate was looking bleak. The bitcoin price had plummeted, miner margins were getting compressed, large public miners were shedding bitcoin holdings and it was a ripe time to revisit the state of miner capitulation in the market. Fast forward to today: price has come down from a massive bear market rally to $25,000 while hash rate coming online has exploded to a new all-time of nearly 250 EH/s. The chop and range and rallies in bitcoin price haven’t impacted the hash rate from ripping higher this year. Hash rate hasn’t really declined on a 30-day growth basis since July.

平均算力首次达到248 EH/s 图表来自我们的 10/22/21 - Public Miner Analysis

That’s some of the best public data available to chalk up why bitcoin hash rate has exploded so much. It’s public miners executing on expansion plans. But that doesn’t mean large scale mining companies haven’t faced additional pressures. Compute North, one of the largest data center operators and bitcoin 采矿几周前根据美国破产法第 11 章申请破产保护。他们为 Marathon Digital、Compass Mining 和 Bit Digital 等公司的 84 个不同采矿实体提供了矿工服务。 Compute North 大部分现有资产的大型拍卖将于 1 年 2022 月 XNUMX 日举行，其中包括采矿容器、机器和整个数据中心。

在Celsius崩溃中，Celsius Mining也于XNUMX月申请破产。尽管如此，从最近的 Compute North 破产案可以清楚地看出，大型矿商仍然面临着压力。他们还没有走出困境，我们一直在犹豫是否呼吁结束本周期的矿工投降，因为价格停滞不前，而哈希价格（矿工收入除以哈希率）在这种水平下继续面临一些强劲的阻力。算力扩张正在发挥作用。

在创下历史新高后，在上周算力爆炸之前，挖矿难度出现了 2.14% 的大幅负调整。但这看起来只是短期的缓解，因为到目前为止，下一个预计的难度调整看起来像是一个恶性的过程。 13.5%正调整在撰写本文时。自中国颁布采矿禁令以来，我们还没有看到过如此程度的调整。这种类型的调整对于现有矿商的盈利能力来说是个坏消息，因为哈希价格将面临进一步的压力。

Bitcoin's mining difficulty continues to increase

It takes incredible operational excellence to continue to excel in the bitcoin mining industry over multiple cycles.

这就是为什么 bitcoin mining-related equity investing can be either extremely lucrative (if you choose one of the winners) or downright disastrous.

在去年冬天 21 月 XNUMX 日的文章中，我们说了以下内容：

“What you should gather from evaluating the performance of publicly-traded miners against bitcoin itself is that due to the capital structure of their business and the valuations present in equity markets, miners can and likely will outperform bitcoin over periods when hash price rises significantly.

"However, over the long term the revenue in bitcoin terms for every mining company is guaranteed to decrease in bitcoin terms, and due to the excessively large earnings multiples that companies currently trade with in equities markets in a zero interest rate world, even bitcoin mining equities trend to zero over time in bitcoin terms (once again, due to the equity multiples assigned in a zero interest rate fiat-denominated world).”

Since that point, the share prices of publicly traded mining companies are all down significantly when measured against bitcoin 本身。

当测量时 bitcoin, public mining companies are down significantly

This should come as no surprise. Miner margins are getting relentlessly squeezed as earnings decrease, in both bitcoin and dollar terms.

Since the all-time high in the bitcoin price, every publicly traded mining company has underperformed the asset itself, bar none.

Every publicly traded bitcoin mining company has underperformed the asset itself

虽然与采矿相关的股票肯定会从目前的低估值中升值，但矿机的进步和采矿的经济激励几乎确保了哈希率继续进一步增加。

引用我们之前的一期文章，

“However, the dynamics involved with evaluating publicly traded bitcoin miners is a bit different. Unlike other “commodity” producers, bitcoin miners often attempt to retain as much bitcoin on their balance sheet as possible. Relatedly, the future supply issuance of bitcoin is known into the future with near 100% certainty.

"With this information, if an investor values these equities in bitcoin terms, significant outperformance against bitcoin itself is achievable if investors allocate during the correct time during the market cycle using a data-driven approach.”

In the future, mining-related equities as well as ASICs will once again be primed for large outperformance against bitcoin itself. We don’t think that time has arrived just yet.