Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Elliott Wave Theory Suggests Is Next For BTC

作者 NewsBTC - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：5 分钟
8 年 2022 月 5 日星期四晚上 25:XNUMX

Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Elliott Wave Theory Suggests Is Next For BTC

不限 Bitcoin price prediction is just a guess without a basis to make the forecast. The 库存流模型 这曾经是对价格上涨预期被引用最多的原因，但现在已经失败，技术分析、链上信号和统计数据成为寻找未来价格目标的最佳机会。

Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis forecasting methodology discovered in the 1930s, which is based on identifying extremes in investor psychology combined with distinctive price behavior. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so susceptible to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, here is what Elliott Wave Theory suggests about what is to come for Bitcoin 价钱。

BTC 价格走势简史

Bitcoin price index chart begins in late 2010, with the first-ever cryptocurrency trading at only pennies on the dollar. By the end of 2011, the price per BTC grew by more than 60,000%. Before the year came to a close, it has lost 94% of its value.

从大约 2 美元的低点开始，另一个看涨冲动又增加了 60,000% 的投资回报率 到2013年高峰. 接下来是另一个陡峭的修正阶段，将加密货币削减了 86%。

What followed was arguably the most talked about bull run since the dot com bubble, when in 2017 Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 per coin. By now, we can see that extreme price swings and pivots in investors sentiment lead to boom and bust cycles across crypto. Bitcoin once again found a bottom at $3,000 in 2018, which will be the basis of the remainder of the analysis.

艾略特波浪理论简介

于 1930 年代由 Ralph Nelson Elliott 首次发现， 艾略特波浪理论 是解释市场如何随时间增长的基础。 EWT 中的动力波是市场前进三步、后退两步的一个例子。

这些步骤在生长阶段和矫正阶段之间来回交替。 动力波共有五个波浪——奇数波浪沿主要趋势方向移动，偶数波浪与主要趋势相反。

尽管修正阶段确实会导致价值急剧下降，但增量增长始终保持在主要趋势方向。 冲击波和修正波都以不同的程度和时间尺度出现。

For example, a five-wave impulse on the daily timeframe could only be a tiny portion of a multi-century Grand Supercycle. Figuring out where Bitcoin is along in its various wave cycles and degrees can help to predict future price action.

EWT 回顾当前的市场周期

Each wave in an impulse has unique characteristics which can help an analysis decipher where an asset is in an overall motive wave. Following the 2018 bear market bottom, crypto had a clean slate to move up from. In 2019, Bitcoin rallied to $13,800, showing the market there was still life in the speculative asset.

几乎整个反弹都回撤了，这是第 2 波修正的共同特征。 修正往往在尖锐和扁平式修正之间交替。 尖锐的修正由之字形表示。 第 2 波表现得像锯齿形，不可否认，2020 年 XNUMX 月 黑色星期四 崩溃是一次急剧的修正。

Wave 3 in Elliott Wave is typically the longest and strongest wave, marked by much wider participation than wave 1. The crowd begins piling at this point. Bitcoin gained national media attention as it reached new all-times during this wave. From there, things get more confusing.

如果 BTCUSD 已经完成其第 4 波和第 5 波阶段，或者如果第 4 波仍在进行中而第 5 波尚未到来，Elliott Wave 从业者存在分歧。 使用这两种情况，可以考虑一些目标。

看跌和看涨的情景和目标

在看跌的情况下， 截断波 5 结束了 Bitcoin bull run and sent the crypto market into its first true bear phase, with wave 5 of V finished and done, ending the primary cycle (pictured above).

Completed bull markets often retrace back into wave 3/4 territory when the motive wave is completed. Bearish price targets put the negative Bitcoin price prediction from anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000 in a complete collapse of the market. A larger catastrophe in the stock market and housing could ultimately do the trick by pulling whatever capital that’s left out of crypto.

The bullish scenario is much more positive, and better fits with what Elliott Wave Theory calls “the right look” and proper counting. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin is in the final stages of an 扩大平面修正，并且一旦情绪和价格极端结束，顶级加密货币将快速设置另一个看涨的价格极端和情绪转换，比任何人都准备的要快得多。

Using EWT To Make A Bitcoin 价格预测

艾略特波浪理论背后的魔力及其影响金融市场增长的原因在于它与斐波那契数列的关系。 斐波那契 数字基于与黄金比例相关的斐波那契数列。 斐波那契数列为 0、1、1、2、3、5、8、13、21 等。

在艾略特波浪理论中，有 21 种从简单到复杂的调整模式。 一个动力波是 5 个向上的波，而调整波是 3 个向下的波，将它们加起来总共是 8 个。 具有所有子波的完全实现的推动波是 21 波向上，而调整阶段最多是 13 波向下。 序列中的每个斐波那契数都包含在某种容量中。

修正也停止在斐波那契回撤水平，并且冲动达到作为价格目标的斐波那契扩展。 浪5通常在幅度上等于浪1或浪3。 如果第 5 浪延长，并且它通常处于加密状态，则第 5 浪的目标可能落在第 1.618 浪的 3 或第 1.618 浪和第 1 浪之和的 3 之间的某个位置。

Bitcoin price reached the 3.618 extension from the bear market bottom, making it possible that the top cryptocurrency overshoots once again. On the lowest end, a 1.618 price target would put the peak of BTC for this cycle somewhere close to $96,000 per coin, while another 3.618 extension could take the top cryptocurrency all the way to $194,000 per BTC.

这使得 Bitcoin price prediction using EWT anywhere between $100K to $200K before the cycle is over. You can watch this Bitcoin price prediction unfold in real-time by bookmarking the idea on TradingView.

只剩几天时间可以好好利用 @elliottwaveintl's “The 12 Days of Elliott”

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- 托尼“公牛”Spilotro（@tonyspilotroBTC） 2022 年 12 月 8 日

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原始来源： NewsBTC