By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：7 分钟
萨尔瓦多的 Bitcoin 布雷顿森林会议
A recent financial inclusion conference in El Salvador gave the country an opportunity to share their bitcoin journey with other global financial policymakers.
Kudzai Kutukwa 是 一位热情的金融包容性倡导者，并被 快公司 杂志被评为南非 20 位 30 岁以下年轻企业家之一。
1944 年 730 月，在新罕布什尔州的布雷顿森林，来自 44 个国家的 XNUMX 多名代表齐聚华盛顿山酒店，这就是后来的布雷顿森林会议。 主要议程是创建一个新的国际货币秩序，该秩序将在二战结束时实施，尤其是在第一次世界大战后放弃了经典的金本位制之后。这个新的国际体系将为战后重建提供资金并改善缺陷借鉴从大萧条中吸取的教训，建立金本位制。 根据 美联储历史:
"It was an unprecedented cooperative effort for nations that had been setting up barriers between their economies for more than a decade.
“They sought to create a system that would not only avoid the rigidity of previous international monetary systems, but would also address the lack of cooperation among the countries on those systems. In the interwar period, governments not only undertook competitive devaluations but also set up restrictive trade policies that worsened the Great Depression."
总之，本次会议试图通过一种新的货币体系来激励国家之间的经济合作，该体系也将阻止大萧条时期的对抗性经济政策。 在此期间，创建了一个金融体系，所有其他全球货币都以美元为后盾，而美元本身则以黄金为后盾。 黄金价格固定在每盎司 35 美元，中央银行也可以用美元兑换黄金。 这被称为布雷顿森林体系。 这一制度一直持续到 15 年 1971 月 XNUMX 日，当时理查德尼克松总统结束了美元与黄金的兑换，因为美国无法再兑现其承诺。 实际上，这是美国政府的主权违约。
Fast forward a couple decades later, central bankers and financial regulators from 44 emerging market countries gathered in El Salvador for the Alliance for Financial Inclusion (AFI) summit. Contrary to popular opinion on social media, this was not a Bitcoin event but it generally focused on financial inclusion, in line with AFI's vision of “Making financial services more accessible to the world’s unbanked.” It's interesting to note, however, that financial exclusion is a natural consequence of the current monetary system due in part to the inherent cost structures that financial institutions have to bear to profitably "bank" customers, as well as the costs imposed by a credit-based payment system which doesn't have instant final settlement of payments. These are disadvantages that the Bitcoin network does not have, even from a financial inclusion perspective. For example 仅截至 2017 年 29% of Salvadorans had a bank account, but the Chivo Bitcoin wallet now 拥有2.6万用户 (approximately 40% of the population) since bitcoin became legal tender last year. Bitcoin is definitely the most financially inclusive network in the world.
根据一个 鸣叫 by the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, multiple issues were discussed during the conference that included banking the unbanked, the digital economy and the benefits of El Salvador's bitcoin adoption. It's also worth noting that this conference was held at a time when the global economy is shaky and characterized by rising inflation levels, rising commodity prices, geopolitical tensions as a result of the war in Ukraine, a looming recession and a weakening dollar. While the aforementioned conditions are different from the state of affairs in 1944 when Bretton Woods kicked in, interestingly, the above factors combined have provided a perfect storm for a new monetary order. For example, after the seizure of Afghanistan and Russia's foreign reserves by the U.S., it became evidently clear to most nation-states that U.S. Treasurys were no longer the "risk-free" assets that they used to be, and that diversification away from "freezable assets" is a matter of national security. Nic Carter summarized this perfectly in an 专栏作品, writing the following, "While seizing Afghan or Russian reserves may feel righteous and just, the immediate effect of such action is to completely undermine the credibility of dollar debt as an international savings device." As dollar hegemony hangs in the balance, the birth of a new monetary system is imminent.
瑞士信贷分析师 Zoltan Pozsar 也持有同样的观点，他在扣押俄罗斯外汇储备后预测，世界可能会回归以商品为支撑的货币体系，他称之为“布雷顿森林三世。” 在同名报告中，他发表了以下言论，
“We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III — a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West … When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities. After this war is over, ‘money’ will never be the same again…and Bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this.”
It is very likely that as sovereigns seek diversification away from U.S. Treasurys, the scenario of a commodity-based monetary system, i.e., gold standard 2.0, will likely be a temporary stopgap measure on the path to bitcoin adoption as the new global reserve currency. Gold-based monetary systems have failed in the past and they are prone to centralization — especially given the fact that the largest gold reserves on earth are held by just three countries: the U.S., China and Russia. Current events and tensions point to such a system being anything but stable or cooperative.
Fidelity Digital Assets shared the following perspective concerning Bitcoin nation-state adoption in a 最近的报道,
"History has shown capital flows to where it is treated best and embracing innovation leads to more wealth and prosperity. We also think there is very high stakes game theory at play here, whereby if bitcoin 采用率增加，获得一些 bitcoin today will be better off competitively than their peers. Therefore, even if other countries do not believe in the investment thesis or adoption of bitcoin, they will be forced to acquire some as a form of insurance. In other words, a small cost can be paid today as a hedge compared to a potentially much larger cost years in the future. We therefore wouldn't be surprised to see other sovereign nation states acquire bitcoin in 2022 and perhaps even see a central bank make an acquisition."
El Salvador has already led the way in this direction by being the first nation-state to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, a move which represents a paradigm shift away from the current fiat monetary system as well as the commodity-based monetary system as predicted by Pozsar. A move that was subsequently copied by Prospera, Honduras; Madeira, Portugal; Lugano, Switzerland; and the Central African Republic, as predicted by Fidelity. Despite Zoltan's skepticism regarding Bitcoin, "Bretton Woods III" will probably be a bitcoin monetary system since it's probably the only asset currently in existence that is fully decentralized and is a neutral international settlement medium that 激励合作 高于战争。
While the conference in El Salvador was primarily focused on financial inclusion, it gave the government of El Salvador a unique opportunity to share their bitcoin adoption journey with other financial policymakers. A Bitcoin-focused panel was also part of the lineup and was presented by the two entrepreneurs behind Bitcoin Beach, Roman Martinez and Nicolas Burtey. During 简报, they spoke at length about the history of Bitcoin Beach, the payment systems that were built, as well as Bitcoin and the Lightning Network. Furthermore, the attendees went on a tour of Bitcoin Beach where they were able to see what financial inclusion under a Bitcoin standard looks like up close. During the tour, they had the opportunity to purchase coffee and coconut with bitcoin via the Lighting Network, and to exchange bitcoin for dollars using a Bitcoin 自动取款机。 根据加洛伊 （开发者 Bitcoin Beach wallet) the central bankers in attendance got to experience how bitcoin benefits people that are financially excluded from the current financial system.
Financial inclusion is the trojan horse that will eventually lead to gradual bitcoin adoption by emerging market countries, and during this conference, El Salvador used this opportunity to plant the seeds for more nation-state adoption of Bitcoin。 鉴于此 Bitcoin Beach tour by the central bankers, JAN3 CEO Samson Mow had this to say, "What took place in El Salvador is the spreading of hope and freedom through Bitcoin adoption. We now have nation-states working on orange pilling other nation-states, which is quite amazing if you think about it. Everything is accelerating and it’s bullish for Bitcoin."
As the cracks begin to appear in the current monetary system, it's only a matter of time before we begin to see more nation-state adoption. History will look upon this year's edition of the AFI summit as "the shot heard round the world" for ushering in a bitcoin-based monetary system.
这是 Kudzai Kutukwa 的客座帖子。 所表达的意见完全是他们自己的，不一定反映 BTC Inc. 或 Bitcoin 杂志.
原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志