较高的 CPI 通胀迫使市场重新定价

By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：3 分钟
15 年 2022 月 3 日星期四上午 00:XNUMX

较高的 CPI 通胀迫使市场重新定价

August CPI inflation data was worse than expectated and the markets repriced in response. Bitcoin falls more than 10% and the S&P 500 closes down 4.3%.

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通货膨胀还没有结束

Despite the overall consensus and sentiment for good inflation news this past month, the higher-than-expected U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) print has derailed any short-term bullish momentum for risk assets that’s been building over the last week. As a result, equities, bitcoin and credit yields exploded with some volatility today. The S&P 500 Index closed down 4.3% with bitcoin following on a 10% plus down move. The last time 这发生在股票上是 2020 年 XNUMX 月.

It’s a similar event to what we saw last month for July data, but in reverse and with more magnitude. Markets cheered on a loosely confirming trend of peak inflation last month, only to have today’s data say otherwise. Now we look to the broader market for risk and rates over the next few days to confirm this new rally downtrend or some relief with the Merge expected to take place late tomorrow night.

总体 CPI 和核心 CPI 均超出了对环比减速的共识定位的预期。 相反，我们的整体 CPI 和核心 CPI 环比分别上升至 0.12% 和 0.57%。 简而言之，通货膨胀尚未消除，在货币政策方面还有更多工作要做（或尝试做）。 这 克利夫兰联储通胀临近预报 几乎确定了他们 XNUMX 月的预测。

Although we did see some inflation across energy commodities come down, it wasn’t enough to offset the growing inflation in the services sector. Higher and elevated wage inflation remains a key, sticky part of inflation that is yet to come down. Housing inflation is also still an issue and has yet to come down. Housing inflation and prices have typically been the last to fall into a pending deflationary and/or recessionary period. Rent inflation (aka owners' equivalent rent (OER)) is a significant component that can keep up CPI prints for longer as it’s usually a six-to-nine-month lag.

总体而言，通胀图景看起来是粘性和扩大的。 根据美联储过去几个月的声明，通过加息来保持积极的货币政策是一个明显的迹象。

Immediately following the release of the CPI data, equities and bitcoin began to sell and the dollar soared. The price action of the asset classes was less about the inflation itself and more about the market’s expectations for future monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. 

对利率的预期立即跃升至年度新高，市场目前预计今年 4.46 月的联邦基金利率为 200%，比当前的利率目标利率范围 2.25-2.50% 低近 XNUMX 个基点。 

Bitcoin in particular was subject to a large unwind in open interest as traders speculating on peak inflation by going long futures now were underwater en masse. 

The decline in stablecoin margin open interest was greater than 30,000 bitcoin from the release of CPI data to the close of legacy markets. Assuming the majority of the decline in open interest was longs closing positions, the market faced the equivalent of approximately 25% of MicroStrategy’s bitcoin stash in selling pressure in the course of a few hours.

话虽如此，在全球金融市场尚未发生的最终投降时刻，我们仍像以往一样被定罪。 长期投资者不应害怕下行波动，而应接受它，了解它提供的以低价购买高质量资产的独特机会。

原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志