By Bitcoin 杂志 - 2 年前 - 阅读时间：2 分钟
How 'Liveliness' Can Track Bitcoin Price Bull And Bear Cycles
The Liveliness on-chain metric tracks accumulation and distribution behavior of bitcoin holders, corresponding to price.
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今天，我们重新审视一个有用的链上指标“活力”，它跟踪 HODLers 的积累和分配行为。回顾一下，活跃度是按一个比率计算的：所有被销毁的代币天数的总和与所有创建的代币天数的总和。
Liveliness increases as long-term holders distribute more coins, creating more coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.Liveliness decreases as long-term holders accumulate more coins, creating less coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.纵观 bitcoin’s history, we see clear patterns of long-term holder distribution and accumulation that drive bull and bear market cycles that can be easily tracked with Liveliness.
Bitcoin's Liveliness over history.去年，我们看到活跃度指标不断上升，长期持有者在 XNUMX 月至 XNUMX 月的历史最高价格上涨期间分发了更多代币。此后，价格下跌期间出现了一段强劲的积累期，直到十月份，一些长期持有者的分配开始形成。过去几周，在最近的去杠杆化事件之后，价格可能触底，活力趋势似乎已开始转向小幅吸筹时期。
Bitcoin Liveliness over a two-year period.This would be a good sign to see long-term holders accumulate at these lower prices before another period of distribution. Accelerated long-term holder distribution at the current bitcoin price would signal a lack of confidence from the “smart money” that bitcoin has more upside over the next few months.
Bitcoin Liveliness over a three-month period.Another way to view the Liveliness trend is to look at Binary Liveliness. Binary Liveliness is designed to help identify periods of accumulation and high distribution by older coins. The green value on the below chart will produce 1 when Liveliness is higher than its 30-day moving average. When it's below the average, it produces 0.
当今天的活跃度高于前一天时，蓝线将返回 1，否则返回 0。然后将 30 天移动平均值应用于这些结果。
从蓝线来看，当前数据显示，二元活力正开始趋势并维持较低的值，这表明活力正处于潜在的新下降趋势，或者是更长期持有者积累的时期。
Binary Liveliness indicates we're entering a period of accumulation.原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志